bluewave

July 1859 was probably the most comfortable one from that era with only 2 days reaching 90° and 10 days with lows in the 50s. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - July 1859 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 2358 1869 - - 7 176 4.03 0.0 Average 78.6 62.3 70.6 -7.6 - - - 1859-07-01 74 54 64.0 -13.0 1 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-02 85 63 74.0 -3.2 0 9 0.72 0.0 1859-07-03 80 M M M M M 0.17 0.0 1859-07-04 M 54 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1859-07-05 69 52 60.5 -17.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-06 73 53 63.0 -14.8 2 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-07 77 56 66.5 -11.4 0 2 0.00 0.0 1859-07-08 79 63 71.0 -7.1 0 6 0.00 0.0 1859-07-09 82 64 73.0 -5.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 1859-07-10 81 63 72.0 -6.2 0 7 0.00 0.0 1859-07-11 86 65 75.5 -2.8 0 11 0.00 0.0 1859-07-12 91 70 80.5 2.1 0 16 0.00 0.0 1859-07-13 92 75 83.5 5.1 0 19 0.60 0.0 1859-07-14 84 70 77.0 -1.5 0 12 0.00 0.0 1859-07-15 78 67 72.5 -6.0 0 8 T 0.0 1859-07-16 67 66 66.5 -12.0 0 2 2.20 0.0 1859-07-17 83 64 73.5 -5.0 0 9 0.00 0.0 1859-07-18 84 69 76.5 -2.0 0 12 0.00 0.0 1859-07-19 74 71 72.5 -6.0 0 8 0.17 0.0 1859-07-20 84 67 75.5 -3.0 0 11 0.02 0.0 1859-07-21 76 62 69.0 -9.5 0 4 0.00 0.0 1859-07-22 77 65 71.0 -7.5 0 6 0.15 0.0 1859-07-23 73 64 68.5 -9.9 0 4 0.00 0.0 1859-07-24 75 55 65.0 -13.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 1859-07-25 77 55 66.0 -12.3 0 1 0.00 0.0 1859-07-26 78 68 73.0 -5.3 0 8 T 0.0 1859-07-27 74 57 65.5 -12.7 0 1 0.00 0.0 1859-07-28 76 57 66.5 -11.7 0 2 0.00 0.0 1859-07-29 77 58 67.5 -10.6 0 3 0.00 0.0 1859-07-30 79 61 70.0 -8.1 0 5 0.00 0.0 1859-07-31 73 61 67.0 -11.0 0 2 0.00 0.0

They just updated the Newark weather records back to 1843. The average July temperature was 73.7° during the 1840s and 1850s. It has been 80.3° since 2010. July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 73.8 73.7 1843 73.0 73.0 1844 72.8 72.8 1845 74.3 74.3 1846 72.7 72.7 1847 74.5 74.5 1848 72.0 72.0 1849 73.9 73.9 1850 75.5 75.5 1851 74.3 74.3 1852 74.3 74.3 1853 73.5 73.5 1854 75.8 75.8 1855 74.9 74.9 1856 76.2 76.2 1857 71.9 71.9 1858 73.5 73.5 1859 70.6 70.6 July Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 80.3 80.3 2010 82.3 82.3 2011 82.7 82.7 2012 80.8 80.8 2013 80.9 80.9 2014 77.0 77.0 2015 79.0 79.0 2016 79.9 79.9 2017 77.3 77.3 2018 78.2 78.2 2019 80.6 80.6 2020 80.8 80.8 2021 78.8 78.8 2022 82.6 82.6 2023 80.6 80.6 2024 81.3 81.3 2025 81.4 81.4

The record high dew points have produced the top 5 warmest low temperatures since June 20th from the Midwest to the East Coast.

It’s really cool that they just updated the Newark area weather records back to 1843. They used to average only 6 days reaching 90° a year from 1843 to 1872. The winter weather records are pretty fun to look at also. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 0 2 3 1 0 6 Max 0 1872 1 1872 6 1843 10 1843 5 1853 4 1851 19 1854 Min 0 1872 0 1871 0 1872 0 1871 0 1872 0 1872 0 1843 M 0 6 10 0 0 16 1844 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 1845 0 0 1 8 0 0 9 1846 0 0 0 5 2 0 7 1847 0 0 1 3 0 0 4 1848 0 0 4 1 0 0 5 1849 0 0 4 3 0 0 7 1850 0 0 3 5 1 0 9 1851 0 0 1 2 0 4 7 1852 0 0 3 4 0 1 8 1853 0 0 3 1 5 1 10 1854 0 0 3 9 4 3 19 1855 0 0 2 4 0 0 6 1856 0 0 4 9 0 0 13 1857 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1858 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 1859 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 1860 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1861 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 1862 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1863 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1864 0 0 2 1 2 0 5 1865 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1866 0 0 0 8 0 0 8 1867 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1868 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 1869 0 0 0 2 2 0 4 1870 0 0 2 4 0 0 6 1871 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1872 0 1 0 4 0 0 5

The models sped up the frontal passage. While we still get a sea breeze, there is now a late day wind shift to the WNW. So areas from Huntington to maybe Commack could go 95°+. Even JFK could go mid-90s with that wind shift. The wild card will be convection. If it breaks up or heads to our south, then even the South Shore could have a late day high after the mid-day sea breeze. Another scenario would be a warm up on the outflow boundary if the convection comes right through the area. Where the sea breeze reverses on the NW gust front with a late day temperature jump. Saw this a bunch of times back in Long Beach.

The current 7 year stretch through 2025 is lowest on record at both JFK and NYC. JFK is currently at 14.5” which is lower than the previous record of 15.6” ending in 1976 and 15.8” in 1992. NYC is at 14.9” which comes in below the previous 7 year lows in 15.4 from 1933 and 16.3” in 1992. The highest 7 year max for JFK was 34.5” in 2016 with NYC setting their record high at 41.0”.

The HVN ASOS just to my west is currently at 78.2° which is the 3rd warmest July on record here. The average daily high is 86.0° which is 4th highest. The average minimum temperature is 70.5° which is 4th highest. My 90° day count so far is 8 which is 3rd highest behind 2012 and 2013 through 7-22. The 70° minimum number is 20 days so far is in 3rd place for highest to date behind 2013 and 2024. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 78.6 0 2 2024 78.3 0 - 2020 78.3 0 3 2025 78.2 9 4 2022 78.1 0 5 2023 78.0 1 6 2019 77.9 0 7 2010 77.3 0 8 2012 76.6 0 9 2011 76.4 0 10 2008 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 86.8 0 2 2019 86.6 0 - 2010 86.6 0 3 2023 86.2 1 4 2025 86.0 9 - 2020 86.0 0 - 2013 86.0 0 5 2024 85.5 0 6 2011 85.4 0 7 1977 85.1 8 8 2012 85.0 0 9 1952 84.4 0 10 2018 84.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 71.3 0 2 2024 71.0 0 3 2020 70.6 0 4 2025 70.5 9 5 2023 69.7 1 6 2022 69.3 0 7 2019 69.2 0 8 2008 68.3 0 9 2012 68.2 0 10 2010 67.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-07-22 11 1 2 2013-07-22 10 0 3 2025-07-22 8 0 - 2010-07-22 8 0 - 1952-07-22 8 0 4 2021-07-22 7 0 - 1977-07-22 7 39 5 2022-07-22 6 0 - 2019-07-22 6 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-22 23 1 - 2013-07-22 23 0 2 2025-07-22 20 0 3 2021-07-22 17 0 4 2010-07-22 16 0 5 2023-07-22 14 1

Unfortunately, we don’t have a long term continuous snowfall measurement record for a given spot in Somerset County. There are different COOP sites with varying length observation records. The longest continuous site is New Brunswick to your east. The current 7 year running mean snowfall is 15.9” ending in 2025. That is the 3rd lowest on record behind the 13.1” ending in 1933 and the 13.8” ending 7 year period in 1956. New Brunswick is doing better than Philly relative to the 7 year means. The Philly 7 year running average snowfall is 10.5” ending in 2025 is the lowest on record.This is below the previous record lowest 7 year snowfall average of 12.5” ending in 1933. The highest New Brunswick 7 year running mean snowfall was 39.6” ending in 1911. The 2nd highest was 38.2” ending in 2016. The highest Philly running 7 year snowfall average was 36.8” ending in 2016.

Yeah, the record breaking December 2015 +13° around our area seemed to be the very beginning of this shift. We still continued the epic snowfall and benchmark tracks that started in 09-10 until 17-18. Then the rapid jump in the mid-latitude ridging and SSTs began around 18-19. It shifted the winter storm track through the Great Lakes and gave us the record low snowfall for a 7 year period.

We have been seeing this pattern quite a bit during recent summers. It has been leading to a slow start to the hurricane seasons. As the SST differential between the subtropics and tropics relaxes later on, the dry air issues clear up and we see a quick acceleration of development. Unfortunately, it has lead to many late season rapidly intensifying hurricanes along the Gulf Coast.

It was cool enough yesterday for JFK to break the 8th longest 70° minimum streak at 16 days. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 29 1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13 2 24 2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24 - 24 1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05 3 21 2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25 - 21 1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17 4 20 2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22 5 19 2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05 6 18 1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03 7 17 1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17 8 16 2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21 - 16 2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16 9 15 1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06 10 14 2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18 - 14 2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26 - 14 2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21

I think that it would probably take at least VEI-7 volcanic eruption like Tambora for a short term interruption before the warming resumed again. But those type of eruptions have been very rare. Plus we don’t really have that much skill with long range volcanic forecasting. Maybe some of the board volcano experts can chime in here. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

The model forecasts have the -AMO getting overwhelmed by the fast Atlantic warming. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01804-x Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future.

The mid-latitude marine heatwaves being driven by the 500 mb ridge expansion have been preventing a shift to -AMO.

That is a grid resolution issue so don’t take those 80s to 90s lines near the coast literally. Most spots like JFK will probably top out in the 90s before the sea breeze kicks in. Could be 20-30 mph southerly gusts by 2-5 pm.

Double-dip -PDO as the mid-latitude SSTs continue to run near record warm levels.

Models still on track for 95° to around 100° on Friday away from the shore with severe storms late to cool things down.

We’ll see if Newark can pull off their first 100° reading on July 25th this Friday. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=98&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&month=9&var=high&thres=100&dir=above&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yeah, I remember that from living there. Long Beach made the decision a long time ago to use their beaches for revenue from people coming from NYC and other towns on Long Island. This has lead to overcrowding in Long Beach especially on summer weekends and holidays. Atlantic Beach is much quieter with a town beach for residents and private beach clubs. Those beach clubs cater to people from the 5 towns and Garden City. They are very expensive memberships and only limited to a relative small number of members. So they don’t see the congestion that Long Beach gets. Lido has residents only and the Town of Hempstead beach for those residents. A hidden gem down there in Nickerson Beach when there is an amazing bird colony. Some of the premier wildlife photographers go there to photograph. Also numerous rare bird sightings from the local birdwatchers. I think Don would enjoy it with the beautiful photography that he does.

Mostly a tree growth issue since NJ had 100° heat during the last week of July back in 2005. But it’s been a lull period in recent years for 100° heat. More 100s before that week and a few after since then. Data for July 25, 2005 through July 31, 2005 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 101 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NEW LISBON 2N COOP 101 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 100 ELIZABETH COOP 100 HARRISON COOP 100

What ends up happening at many locations is that they alternate between extreme heat and extreme flooding. We saw a microcosm of this global pattern with the 103° to 105° heat back in June in our area. Then the recent severe flooding centered just inland from the coast around our area. Now multiply this across the entire Northern Hemisphere this summer to see the scope of what is going on.

We have been seeing both an increase in extreme high temperatures and flooding across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. That’s why the global average temperatures and moisture content is so high. Even our area experienced record moisture content with record dew points and PWATS. Plus we just saw the highest June temperatures ever recorded for the month of June at many spots. This month has seen the highest July Dew points on record for many spots. Plus record low temperatures. The all-time highs this month for maximum temperatures have been on other continents. So these daily global temperatures are a great marker for the record local heat and rainfall extremes since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.

I know in Long Beach that they depend on the beach traffic for the local businesses. Especially combined with NYC people coming off the trains. Atlantic Beach and Lido Beach have many fewer commercial businesses. So they don’t see the same type of beach attendance that Long Beach does.

It may not be a pure Ambrose Jet in the strictest sense. Could be a hybrid with approaching front enhancing the local sea breeze in the NY Bight Friday. In any event, Southerly flow events have been dominating westerly flow events with the ridge east of New England last decade. From 2010 to 2013 the sea breeze circulations were frequently interrupted by ridging in the Great Lakes. Out of all my years living in Long Beach, I never saw another sea breeze shut off like during 2010. Some of the worst beach traffic in Long Island history.

This Friday will probably be the last 100° day for the warm spots around the area during the next 2 weeks as the ridge retrogrades back to the Rockies. July 21-28 July 28- August 4