bluewave

Yeah, the early signal that the summer of 2022 would be the warmest in NJ since 2010 was the major upper 90s heat in May. This year the highs were around -10 cooler only reaching the upper 80s. I ageee that the best shot of going over 30 days this summer will be somewhere in NJ like recent summers. But not looking like a repeat of 2022 with 53 days reaching 90°. Someone in the state should reach 30° days this year. The last time the state wasn’t able to reach 30° days was way back in 2014. But we have warmed quite a bit since then. Monthly Data for May 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 Newark Area ThreadEx 98 ESTELL MANOR COOP 96 HARRISON COOP 96 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 95 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 95 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 95 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 95 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 95 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 95 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 95 Monthly Data for May 2025 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 89 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 88 HARRISON COOP 88 Newark Area ThreadEx 88 CANOE BROOK COOP 87 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 87 ESTELL MANOR COOP 87 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 87 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 86 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 86 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 86 BELMAR FARMINGDALE ALLAIRE AP WBAN 86 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 86 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 86 SALEM COOP 86 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 86 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 85 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 85 NJ #90 days during the 2020s Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HARRISON COOP 41 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 35 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 30 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 Data for January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ESTELL MANOR COOP 34 HARRISON COOP 33 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 31 Newark Area ThreadEx 29 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 29 Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 49 CANOE BROOK COOP 47 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 40 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 43 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41 Newark Area ThreadEx 41 HARRISON COOP 38 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 36 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 36 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 36 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 33 CANOE BROOK COOP 32 ESTELL MANOR COOP 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 31 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 42 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 40 HARRISON COOP 39 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 ESTELL MANOR COOP 36 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 32 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 31 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 31 Newark Area ThreadEx 31 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 30 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 30 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 30

Yeah, we are looking really good here in the East.

Yeah, my guess is that the only spots this summer that have a chance of reaching 30 days will be somewhere in NJ. Newark was a little over last summer and a little under back in 2023. Central Park has been so overgrown that they haven’t had 30 days since 2010.

I was pointing this out last month. We typically don’t get 40 to 50 days reaching 90° like in 2010 and 2022 without 90°+ heat in May. The summer could still average warmer than normal. But we will probablyhave plenty of onshore flow and moisture.

Less warm or closer to the warmest 1991-2020 normals is the new cool. This looks like the pattern for the next few weeks. Perhaps the pattern warms up during the last week of June allowing a modest warm departure for the whole month on average. June 9 to 16 EPS forecast June 16 to 23 forecast

The main thing with the few cooler summer intervals since 2010 like we saw in 2023, 2017, and 2014, has been that none of them have been really cool like 2009 was. Going forward we’ll have to see if we dry out later in the month into July allowing the more typical 90° heat. But the lack of 90° heat in May was singnaling that a high end summer for 90° days like 2022 and 2010 when Newark had close to 50 days wasn’t as likely. Since all our warmest summers have been preceded by heat in May.

Rainy patterns have been the only way that we have avoided heat during the summers since 2010. Closer to average summer temperatures have been associated with wet onshore flow patterns. So it’s no surprise that the models have less heat going forward than earlier runs. But this introduces the risk of flooding when the systems or storms stall out. We have been seeing this pattern to our north since the start of May with 10”+. The real risk is that some spot gets 10”+ of rain in a few hours rather than spread out over a month during the summer into fall. This is when the severe flooding occurs like Southern CT and Suffolk County saw last August. June 9 to 16 more onshore flow and showers than originally forecast leading to very comfortable June temperatures. New run Old run

Yeah, I have read that the ECMWF has been working on that. Use AI to bias correct the NWP OP and ENS model runs. But they say that it takes an enormous amount of computing power. I adjust the models manually after recognizing the biases. A stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been a regular model bias in the East than original forecasts. So systems which initially start out further south and end up more north. This model too weak Southeast Ridge and Pacific Jet forecast error was the main model bias during February 2025. So the heaviest snowfall axis shifted further north over time from the original model snowfall forecasts issued early in the month. On the Pacific side the Northern Stream has been verifying much stronger. This has lead to the long range models being too strong with the -EPO. So the ridge in that region usually ends up weaker than originally forecast. This was the case last December when the models missed the record +EPO vortex later in December. The link below has the original EPS forecast issued in early December missing the stronger Pacific Jet and record late December +EPO.

It’s just too wet in this new climate to ever see the reservoirs run a low as they did back in 2001-2002 leading to water rationing in NYC. We’ll have to monitor this pattern as the summer progresses. Since more Gulf Hurricane activity riding north inland along the APPS like recent years could create major flood concerns heading through the summer and fall. https://www.nyc.gov/site/dep/water/reservoir-levels.page

10-16” of rain for areas north of NYC since May 1st. Data for May 1, 2025 through June 8, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ELKA PARK 3.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.80 ACRA 1.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 16.18 ALTAMONT 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 14.44 TROY 6.9 NE CoCoRaHS 13.84 EAST BERNE 2.7 NE CoCoRaHS 13.75 HIGHLAND 2.3 NW CoCoRaHS 13.20 PLATTEKILL 2.0 WNW CoCoRaHS 13.20 WALLKILL 3.7 E CoCoRaHS 13.17 FREEHOLD 3.4 E CoCoRaHS 13.00 POUGHKEEPSIE 2.4 S CoCoRaHS 13.00 TROY 0.7 E CoCoRaHS 12.81 PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 12.50 DELMAR 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 12.31 ALBANY 0.7 SW CoCoRaHS 12.11 LANSING MANOR COOP 12.10 DELHI 6.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.74 VALATIE 0.5 S CoCoRaHS 11.74 ALTAMONT 3.5 NW CoCoRaHS 11.73 NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.73 WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.56 BEACON 0.7 SE CoCoRaHS 11.56 HIGHLAND 0.2 SW CoCoRaHS 11.56 LEXINGTON 1.5 N CoCoRaHS 11.38 WARWICK 3.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.38 HURLEY 2.2 S CoCoRaHS 11.35 LITTLE VALLEY COOP 11.33 MARYLAND 1.8 W CoCoRaHS 11.25 MALTA 2.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.20 PINE BUSH 3.3 N CoCoRaHS 11.18 WEST HURLEY 0.1 S CoCoRaHS 11.14 TROY 2.6 N CoCoRaHS 11.09 COLONIE 3.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.04 NEW PALTZ 3.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 11.03 MECHANICVILLE 2.4 SW CoCoRaHS 11.02 BALLSTON SPA 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.01 HYDE PARK 1.5 E CoCoRaHS 11.01 DELANSON 2.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.98 CLIFTON PARK 2.7 S CoCoRaHS 10.94 WOODSTOCK 0.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.93 NISKAYUNA 2.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.89 ROSENDALE VILLAGE 1.8 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.84 BUSKIRK COOP 10.81 PLEASANT VALLEY 0.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.79 TROY 2.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.73 HURLEY 0.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.72 SAUGERTIES 4.7 NW CoCoRaHS 10.71 ALCOVE DAM COOP 10.70 PATTERSONVILLE 4.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.69 SCOTIA 1.1 NW CoCoRaHS 10.67 RHINEBECK 3.4 N CoCoRaHS 10.63 WALTON 2 COOP 10.62 HIGHLAND 2.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.61 LATHAM 1.8 NW CoCoRaHS 10.61 HYDE PARK 1.5 W CoCoRaHS 10.43 NISKAYUNA 1.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.43 GREENVILLE 0.7 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.41 STONE RIDGE 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.38 ATHENS 0.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.38 ALTAMONT 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.38 HOBART 4.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.37 BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.36 MILLBROOK 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.36 ESOPUS 0.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.35 PORT JERVIS COOP 10.34 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10.31 Albany Area ThreadEx 10.31 HAVILAND 3.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.29 GRANVILLE 9.5 SW CoCoRaHS 10.28 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 10.25 JORDANVILLE 4.2 E CoCoRaHS 10.23 SARATOGA SPRINGS 0.5 S CoCoRaHS 10.21 PLEASANT VALLEY 1.7 S CoCoRaHS 10.21 COOPERSTOWN COOP 10.20 VALATIE 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 10.12 POUGHKEEPSIE 3.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.12 GREENFIELD CENTER 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 10.06 SALEM 2.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.04

These models just can’t see the Southeast Ridge and strength of the Pacific Jet past 120 hrs. So the snowfall beyond 120 hrs has been shifting further north over time. February was a prime example of this model bias. The 30”+ totals which were forecast around NYC wound up much further north. Places like Toronto got the record 30” snowfall with only 7.1” in NYC

The ECMWF site provides them. The most skill is week 1 followed by week 2.But the 3rd week out and beyond are often very low skill. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Sub-seasonal"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A["Forecasts"]}

No major heat showing up for the next 15 days on the EPS. Wetter than normal with the warmest temperatures remaining out West. Plenty of onshore flow limiting the 90° potential. We’ll see if this can shift a bit after the solstice heading into July. June 9 to 16 rainfall and temperature departures June 16 to 23 rainfall and temperature departures

It’s all about the way model biases have been evolving over the years. We went many years near the I-95 corridor when the long range models weren’t snowy enough beyond a few days. Which is the complete opposite of the model error pattern since 2018-2019 with the record breaking Pacific Jet. The January 1978 KU snowstorm was originally forecast to be a rainstorm the day before and we got a surprise 15” snowstorm on Long Island. Then in February 1983 the original forecast a few days out was for the heaviest snows to stay down near Philly. But instead the heaviest snows shifted north into NYC Metro as the models got under 60 hours. The January 1987 KU event was forecast to be snow quickly changing to rain but instead we got a surprise 6-12”. The December 1988 surprise Norlun wasn't even forecast at all and we got a narrow 6-12” band. The January 1996 blizzard was originally forecast to get suppressed to the south of NYC from 120 hrs out. But came north in the models only 24 hrs out. The late January 2000 snowstorm was forecast to be OTS and delivered record snows in the Carolinas and over 6” around NYC. The record January 2016 snowstorm was only forecast to be 6-12” the day before around NYC and turned out to be 20-30”. So model errors in good snowfall seasons tended to be underdone beyond 24 to 48 hours out. What the models have been doing since 18-19 is showing heavy snows beyond 72 to 120 hrs only to correct further north with the heavy snowfall axis. So the error has been for the storm tracks to verify warmer and further north than originally forecast. This model error pattern worked for us with colder storm tracks to our Southeast which dominated before 18-19. Since the long range forecasts could still afford to shift north changing suppression to a KU. These days the storm track is already too far north so any shift north under 60 hrs gives us to more rain. So cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have lead to the record low snowfall from Philly to Boston last 7 years. The big snowstorm has always been beyond 120 hrs out. So this has become the dominant model forecast storm track bias. The one good thing about repeating model biases is that I use them in real time to correct the long range model forecast biases leading to better forecasts than the models.

This is a new interesting study on how the oceans and land areas have warmed so rapidly in recent years. Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD @ryankatzrosene · 20h Woah this is a fascinating new paper in Nature! It tries to figure out what caused the unprecedented marine heat wave seen in the North Atlantic in 2023 (which in turn caused extreme weather chaos and heatwaves, especially in Europe) They find that “the primary driver of the marine heatwave was record-breaking weak winds across much of the basin.” Weak Winds! You see, the winds were super weak, which in turn is linked in with an especially thin upper ocean level, which in turn can cause more rapid warming of that layer. Usually it’s 20-40 meters “thick”, but in 2023 it was only 10 meters thick. A secondary contributing factor was potentially the reduction in shipping fuels through the IMO’s low sulfur fuel policy. This allowed more solar energy to reach that already thin upper ocean layer. The weak winds could have been caused by the development of an El Niño that year, though prior research has shown how anthropogenic global warming is reducing the ability of winds to mix the upper ocean, causing it to gradually thin. As the lead authors note, “Marine heatwaves are expected to worsen as Earth continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions, with devastating impacts on marine ecosystemssuch as coral reefs and fisheries. This also means more intense hurricanes – and more intense land-based

Yeah, the clouds and showers will probably cap the high temperature potential unless the late month pattern can find a a way to dry out a bit.

Yes, when we have great winter patterns in place the snowstorms can often overperferform relative to longer range model forecasts. But since February 2022 most of the snowstorms have been in the long range only to disappear once the models catch onto how strong the Pacific Jet is under 120 hrs. So in effect these models aren’t well suited for such a fast Pacific Flow regime. Our only two colder and snowier months in the 2020s have been February 2021 and January 2022.

The deep red is the higher pressure than normal. This leads to easterly flow here once the back door drops south. The EPS is forecasting a stalled out front to be somewhere south of us mid-June. Once waves of low pressure start to ride east it will eventually lead to the rains coming back north into our area mid-June. But maybe we can sneak in a dry weekend for a change.

We are starting out with fog here today with showers across the area. Then we dry out tomorrow morning before more rain later in the day into the evening. So our first major 95° heat and first 90° east of NYC will have to wait. Longer range it looks like a back door pattern for next weekend with strong Canadian high pressure. Maybe the high will be strong enough to keep the stalled front and rains closer to DC and south. Would be nice to get a dry weekend with comfortable June temperatures. The strongest heat is forecast to stay to our West through mid-June.

My pointing out a particular repeating pattern over time with our storm tracks leading to less snow is more about pattern recognition on my part. I use it in real time to point out that the models have been too snowy beyond 5 days. This has lead to the famous modeled snowstorm always being a week a way. Which is due to the models underestimating the influence of the Pacific Jet longer range. Adding extra warmth to the system in multiple locations causes shifts in the storm tracks. So we need to acknowledge this as a forecast aid.

That ridge position in the means off the West Coast in January 2025 was able to build into the Rockies later in the month like you pointed out in 2022. But the Pacific Jet carving out a deeper Baja trough than we saw in 2022 was acting as a kicker. So the trough near the Northeast was a little too far east for a repeat of the late January 2022 blizzard. Too many competing marine heatwaves driving the pattern this past January to allow the pristine MJO 8 forcing pattern that we got back in 2022.

We’ll see if the pattern can dry out a bit after the 16th and maybe promote higher temperatures than we got the last few days.

The +PNA ridge worked out for us in January 2022 in that position just off the West Coast in conjunction with the solid MJO 8.

The EPO was only consistently negative in January. As the big swings in December and February lead to more neutral those months. Unfortunately, the big snowstorm in January got suppressed down to the Gulf Coast.

Rainy weekends theme continues with rainy periods possible on Saturday and Sunday. Hopefully, the Euro is too fast with the rain to return on Sunday. So we can at least get some drier conditions during the day.