donsutherland1

Thanks for the kind words. I'm hoping that this forum gets to enjoy a really memorable event.

Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall. Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow. Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record. All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.

Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range):

FWIW, 4 of GSP's 6 biggest snowstorms and 4 of GSP's 7 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred in December.

Yes.

It started running.

I agree. IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.

FWIW, even as it's really early to use the Bufkit soundings products, snow accumulations from Charlotte and Raleigh were approximately 15" and 8" respectively on the 18z GFS. More fell, but those were the accumulations (maximum temperature algorithm).

A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation. As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities. Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase. Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs.

95.83", not that 0.01" makes much of a difference. ILM will probably need one or two additional storms beyond the weekend event with moderate or greater precipitation to get to 100".

Even as most or all of the precipitation today is done, I expect Washington to easily surpass its existing annual precipitation record.

I believe there's a pretty good chance that both the November and annual precipitation records will be broken.

I expect DC to set a new record. I would be quite surprised if it didn’t.

4th with 58.58" precipitation. That record is within reach. The record is 61.33", which was established in 1889.

Thanks for posting Dr. Stroeve's Arctic sea ice extent data. I hadn't seen this paper and it really reinforces the dramatic changes that have been taking place in the Arctic region.

As of 10:50 pm, 1.65" rain had fallen at Richmond. That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 54.15". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 1996 when 54.13" precipitation fell as Richmond's 10th wettest year on record.

As of 5:20 pm, Richmond had picked up 0.41" rain. That brings 2018 precipitation to 49.00". As a result, 2018 now ranks just ahead of 1923 as Richmond's 31st wettest year on record. During 1923, Richmond had 48.96" precipitation. 7 pm update: Richmond's annual precipitation reached 50.00". 2018 is only the 24th year on record with 50.00" or more precipitation in Richmond.

I would not rule out areas that radiate better. The City and adjacent suburbs have be likely had their last freeze of the season.

I agree. The odds would be very much against snowfall, much less any accumulation.

That big change in the pattern has been showing up on the ensembles for several days now. IMO, it's real. Whether or not it holds or is temporarily reversed as April concludes remains to be seen.

Wonderful deep winter scene.

Yes it would. Even if PWM misses the record, it has been a pretty special March.

Yes. Bangor: 41.5", 1956 Boston: 38.9", 1993 Concord: 38.3", 1956 Portland: 49.0", 1993 Worcester: 44.1", 1993

Updated March snowfall figures for select New England sites: Bangor: 31.9" (6th snowiest March) Boston: 21.8" (7th snowiest March) Concord: 28.1" (11th snowiest March) Portland: 31.6" (8th snowiest March) Worcester: 40.0" (2nd snowiest March)

From the Caribou NWS: Penobscot County... 1 SW Holden 30.0 859 AM 3/14 Copeland Hill Hudson 24.0 230 PM 3/14 Social Media Eddington 24.0 1130 AM 3/14 Social Media Burlington 23.0 853 AM 3/14 Social Media Brewer 23.0 1025 AM 3/14 Social Media Clifton 23.0 1000 AM 3/14 Social Media 1 SW Orono 22.5 201 PM 3/14 Trained Spotter Veazie 22.0 1000 AM 3/14 Social Media Bangor 20.9 157 PM 3/14 ASOS/AWOS 1 ENE Glenburn 20.4 141 PM 3/14 Trained Spotter 1 NW Orono 20.0 1030 AM 3/14 Trained Spotter 1 SW Hermon 20.0 1151 AM 3/14 still snowing Hampden 20.0 1200 PM 3/14 Social Media 1 SW Old Town 18.0 1000 AM 3/14 Trained Spotter Millinocket 17.6 321 PM 3/14 Trained Spotter 6 N Millinocket 16.0 1030 AM 3/14 Trained Spotter Corinna 15.8 1000 AM 3/14 Co-Op Observer 7 SSE Springfield 15.0 1039 AM 3/14 Trained Spotter I guess the Fisher-Coram tag team would automatically throw out the 30" observation from Penobscot County. However, considering the reality that both precipitation amounts and snowfall amounts can vary significantly over short distances, more rigorous quality control would be needed before a determination is made.