donsutherland1

Updated Belgian national high temperature record: Review of station data revealed that Begijnendijk had a high temperature of 107° (41.8°C) yesterday.

The second historic heat wave of the summer in western Europe crested today with widespread all-time high temperature records being established. The national records set in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands were surpassed today. National records set today were: Belgium: Beitem: 105° (40.7°C); old record: Kleine-Brogel: 102° (38.9°C), July 24, 2019 Germany: Lingen: 109° (42.6°C); old record: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweilger: 104° (39.9°C), July 24, 2019 Until today, Germany had never had a 40.0°C reading. Today, 25 locations in Germany registered high temperatures of 40.0°C or above. Netherlands: Gilze en Rijen: 105° (40.7°C); old record: Eindhoven: 103° (39.3°C), July 24, 2019 All-time record high temperatures were also set at among the following locations: Antwerp, Belgium: 104°; Beauvais, France: 106°; Beauvechain, Belgium: 104°; Bierset, Belgium: 102°; Brussels: 104°; Cambridge, United Kingdom: 101° (38.1°C)--2nd hottest ever in the UK; Charleroi, Belgium: 104°; Chateaudun, France: 106°; Chievres, Belgium: 104°; Cologne, Germany: 106°; Deelen, Netherlands: 102°; Diepholz, Germany: 100°; Dortmund, Germany: 102°; Duisburg, Germany: 106°; Dusseldorf, Germany: 105°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 105°; Evreux, France: 106°; Florennes, Belgium: 102°; Frankfurt: 104°; Hupsel, Netherlands: 105°; Koksijde, Belgium: 104°; Le Havre, France: 100°; Le Mans, France: 106°; Le Touquet, France: 102°; Lille, France: 106°; London-Heathrow: 100° (tied all-time record); Luxembourg: 102°; Maastricht, Netherlands: 102°; Mannheim City, Germany: 104°; Meppen, Germany: 102°; Noervenich, Germany: 105°; Orleans, France: 106°; Ostend, Belgium: 102°; Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport: 106°; Paris-Le Bourget Airport: 108°; Paris-Orly Airport: 108°; Paris-Parc de Montsouris: 109°; Rotterdam, Netherlands: 99°; Rouen, France: 106°; Saarbrucken, Germany: 100°; Schaffen, Belgium: 104°; Spangdahlem, Germany: 101°; St. Dizier, France: 106°; St. Gatien, France: 102°; Tonisvorst, Germany: 106°; Tours, France: 106°; Troyes, France: 108°; Uccle, Belgium: 103°; Volkel, Netherlands: 104°; Westdorpe, Netherlands: 105°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 102°; Wilhelminadorp, Netherlands: 105°; and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 104°. In terms of whether climate change played a role, it is likely that attribution studies will come to similar conclusions as those drawn concerning the June 2019 historic heat. That study can be found at: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Science_France_heat_June_2019.pdf The extreme heat will likely shift northward tomorrow. Saturday and perhaps Sunday could feature record warmth across parts of Norway and Sweden. Meanwhile record cold could develop in eastern Finland and a portion of western Russia during the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week. By the middle of next week, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia. Numerous record low temperatures were recorded across parts of the Southeastern United States this morning. Record lows included Austin: 64° (old record: 65°, 1901 and 1924) and Little Rock: 60° (old record: 61°, 2000). No monthly records were broken. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 99% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.1°-64.8°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -5.60 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.986. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. The preliminary MJO data for July 24 was not available. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 99%. Most likely range: 78.9°-80.0° (2.4° to 3.5° above normal). Finally, on July 23, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.665 million square kilometers (JAXA). That is the lowest figure for July 25. However, over the next 30 days, Arctic sea ice extent would fall by nearly 3.0 million square kilometers in 2012 en route to a record low minimum figure of 3.177 million square kilometers on September 16.

Historic high temperature records in Europe: Gilze en Rijen, Netherlands: 105° (40.4°C) -- new national record Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 105° (40.6°C) -- new national record Lingen, Germany: 107° (41.5°C) -- new national record Paris: 109° (42.6°C)

Historic heat scorched Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands with all-time national record high temperatures. All-time high temperatures in western Europe included: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweilger, Germany: 104° (39.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Beauvechain, Belgium: 100°; Bierset, Belgium: 100°; Brussels: 99°; Den Helder, Netherlands: 95°; Dusseldorf, Germany: 102°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 103° (39.3°C) (new national high temperature record); Eisenborn, Belgium: 97°; Florennes, Belgium: 99°; Gilze, Netherlands: 102°; Groningen, Netherlands: 97°; Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 102° (38.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Nancy, France: 104°; Saarbrucken, Germany: 99°; Schaffen, Belgium: 102°; Thuilley-aux-Groseilles, France: 104°; and, Volkel, Netherlands: 102°. More extreme temperatures are likely tomorrow. Paris will likely challenge and break its highest temperature on record. London could see the thermometer challenge its all-time record, though there is some risk that clouds could move in just before the record could be surpassed. In contrast, numerous record low temperatures were recorded across parts of the Southeastern United States this morning. No monthly records were broken. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 99% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.4°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -3.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.970. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. Preliminary MJO data for July 23 was not available. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 98%. Most likely range: 78.8°-80.2° (2.3° to 3.7° above normal).

Extreme heat shattered national high temperature records in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands today. The new national records are: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany: 104°F (39.9°C) Eindhoven, Netherlands: 103°F (39.3°C) Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 102°F (38.9°C) More high temperature records will likely fall tomorrow in western Europe.

Extreme heat covered parts of Europe. High temperatures included: Angers, France: 105° (all-time record); Bordeaux, France: 106° (all-time record); Brive, France: 108° (all-time record); Chateaudun, France: 102° (monthly record); Chateauroux, France: 106° (all-time record); Cognac, France: 104° (all-time record); Dinard, France: 99° (monthly record); La Roche, France: 99° (monthly record); Le Havre, France: 99° (all-time record); Le Mans, France: 105° (tied all-time record); Limoges, France: 100° (all-time record); Nantes, France: 100° (monthly record); Poitiers, France: 104° (all-time record); Rennes, France: 104° (all-time record); and, Tours, France: 104° (tied all-time record). Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 91% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.8°-64.8°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -1.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.525. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.557 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.764. That is the 20th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. That surpasses the old record of 19 consecutive days during which the MJO was in Phase 1, which was established during the July 6-24, 2004 period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 96%. Most likely range: 78.7°-80.2° (2.2° to 3.7° above normal). 　

I am happy he is ok.

That was also Boston’s 2nd consecutive 80 degree minimum temperature. Boston has never had more than one such day in the same year.

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rain to the region late this afternoon and evening. A general 1.50"-2.50" has fallen. Select amounts through 11 pm include: Allentown: 2.42" (old record: 1.54", 1938); Bridgeport: 2.28" (old record: 1.08", 1985); New York City-JFK: 1.61" (old record: 1.16", 2008); Newark: 1.73" (old record: 1.36", 1943); and, Scranton: 1,88" (old record: 1.58", 1994). Allentown has now surpassed 40.00" precipitation for the year. Additional showers and thundershowers are likely overnight and tomorrow. Parts of the region could experience the risk of some additional flooding. Another bout of extreme heat is now unfolding in western Europe. Numerous record high temperatures fell in Norway. Additional records were recorded in France. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 88% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.7°-64.9°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.189. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.763 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.527. That is the 19th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 19 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days). The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 93%. Most likely range: 78.5°-80.2° (2.0° to 3.7° above normal).

Some photos from today’s heavy thunderstorms: Larchmont, NY: Mamaroneck, NY:

The heat wave is now poised to break. High temperatures earlier today included: Atlantic City: 100° (old record: 99°, 1957 and 1981); Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 98°; Hartford: 100°; Islip: 99°; New York City-JFK: 99° (tied record set in 1991); New York City-LGA: 100° (tied record set in 1991); New York City-NYC: 95°; Newark: 99°; Norfolk: 100°; Philadelphia: 98°; Providence: 96°; Sterling: 100°; and, Washington, DC: 99°. At 11 pm, Boston had a temperature of 88°. So far, Boston's daily minimum temperature is 83°. Should Boston register a daily minimum temperature of 80° or above, Boston would have two consecutive days of such warm minimum temperatures for the first time on record. Boston's records go back to 1872. Tomorrow will likely feature the development of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is possible across portions of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, a period of cooler weather appears likely. Another bout of extreme heat is imminent in western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 82% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.5°-64.9°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -2.46 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.032. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.523 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.164. That is the 18th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 18 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days). As had been signaled by the MJO, the second half of July is experiencing a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings that had developed during the first half of the month in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. Much of the region has now experienced a heat wave. Baltimore has now had 10 consecutive 90° or above days and Washington DC has had 11 consecutive 90° or above days. Peak temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region have included: Atlantic City: 100°; Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 98°; Hartford: 100°; Islip: 99°; New York City: JFK-99°, LGA-100°, NYC-95°; Newark: 98°; Philadelphia 98°; and, Washington, DC: 99°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 89%. Most likely range: 78.2°-80.1° (1.7° to 3.6° above normal).

Temperatures near sunrise included: Bridgeport: 79° Farmingdale: 80° Islip: 80° New York City-JFK: 80° New York City-LGA: 88° New York City-NYC: 82° Newark: 80° White Plains: 77° Sunrise

I think LGA has perhaps the best chance, along with EWR to reach 100 today. JFK might make a run at it. Central Park will probably fall a few degrees short.

Update on the Historic Heat of June 2019 in France. Météo-France reported: During the heat wave of the end of June 2019, the old maximum temperature record in France of 44.1 ° C observed in Conqueyrac in the Gard on August 12, 2003 was beaten several times. Many stations have measured exceptional values. 45.9 ° C were thus noted on June 28 in Gallargues-le-Montueux in Gard. These values come from the network of automatic stations operated by Météo-France in real time... Météo-France also collects data observed by the State Climatological Network (RCE). This includes about 800 manual temperature stations, held by volunteer observers who send their observations with a few days' notice. Among all these observations, a maximum temperature value of 46.0 ° C was found in Vérargues (34), less than 10 km from the automatic station of Gallargues-le-Montueux . http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/74345599-c-est-officiel-on-a-atteint-les-46-c-en-france-en-juin 46.0°C is 114.8°F.

An oppressive day concluded with widespread readings at or above 95° in the East. Select high temperatures from the eastern third of North America included: Allentown: 95° Atlantic City: 99° (old record: 97°, 1991) Baltimore: 100° Bangor: 93° Burlington: 94° Boston: 97° Chicago: 95° Cleveland: 95° Concord: 96° Detroit: 96° Harrisburg: 97° Hartford: 98° Islip: 97° (tied record set in 1997) Lynchburg: 98° Montreal: 91° New York City-JFK: 99° (old record: 96°, 1991 and 2013) New York City-LGA: 99° New York City-NYC: 95° Newark: 98° Norfolk: 100° Ottawa: 93° Philadelphia: 97° Poughkeepsie: 96° Raleigh: 95° Richmond: 98° Roanoke: 99° Saint John, New Brunswick: 91° (old record: 86°, 1991) Salisbury: 96° Sterling: 98° Toronto: 90° Trenton: 96° Wallops Island: 98° (old record: 94°, 1991 and 2010) Washington, DC: 97° Wilmington, DE: 96° Tomorrow will feature additional intense heat. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could again see high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew point figures above 75°. Following this weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. Already, some locations in France recorded temperatures in the 90s today. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 84% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.7°-65.3°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -2.83 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.206. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.159 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.140. That is the 17th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 17 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days). As had been signaled by the MJO, the second half of July is experiencing a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings that had developed during the first half of the month in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. Much of the region is in the midst of a heat wave or on the cusp of one. Baltimore has now had 9 consecutive 90° or above days and Washington DC has had 10 consecutive 90° or above days. Peak temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region have included: Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 97°; Islip: 97°; New York City: JFK-99°, LGA-99°, NYC-95°; Newark: 98°; Philadelphia 97°; and, Washington, DC: 97°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 85%. Most likely range: 77.8°-79.9° (1.3° to 3.4° above normal).

Select low temperatures from this morning included: Albany: 76° (old daily record high minimum temperature: 72°, 1919 and 1946) Allentown: 76° (Tied daily record high minimum temperature set in 1942) Atlantic City: 81° (old daily record high minimum temperature: 79°, 2015) Baltimore: 78° Boston: 80° (Tied daily record high minimum temperature set in 1977) Bridgeport: 77° Harrisburg: 79°(old daily record high minimum temperature: 76°, 1972 and 2015) Hartford: 77° (old daily record high minimum temperature: 73°, 1977) Islip: 78° (Tied daily record high minimum temperature set in 2013) New York City-JFK: 78° New York City-LGA: 83° (Tied daily record high minimum temperature set in 2015) New York City-NYC: 82° (Tied daily record high minimum temperature set in 2015) Newark: 80° (Tied daily record high minimum temperature set in 2015) Philadelphia: 80° Poughkeepsie: 76° (old daily record high minimum temperature: 74°, 1946) Providence: 77° (old daily record high minimum temperature: 76°, 1977) Washington, DC: 81° White Plains: 77° (old daily record high minimum temperature: 76°, 2013) Note: All daily record-tying and breaking high minimum temperature data is preliminary as of 8 am. Sunrise

Back on June 22, the SOI fell to -42.04. Then, it was noted that the SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). By June 30, 90° or above days for select cities were: Boston: 0; New York City: 1; Philadelphia: 5; and, Washington, DC: 14. Through today, those totals are: Boston: 6; New York City: 6; Philadelphia: 15; and, Washington, DC: 28. Those numbers will increase further this weekend. A period of intense heat has moved into the East. Tomorrow and Sunday, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could see high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew point figures above 75°. Following the coming weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 98% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 79% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.5°-65.3°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -6.03 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.234. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.006. That is the 16th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 16 consecutive days was June 29-July 14, 2008 (16 consecutive days). The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 85%.

Parts of the region received more than 2.00" rain over the past two days. Through 9 pm, Bridgeport's rainfall for today was 2.74". That broke the daily record of 2.21" precipitation, which was set in 1965. Bridgeport's 2-day total precipitation reached 3.60". New York City had picked up 2.33". The implied probability that New York City will receive 50.00" or more precipitation this year is currently 74%. A period of intense heat is now imminent for the East. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could see one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew points above 75°. Meanwhile, following this weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 96% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 72% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.0°-65.1°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -12.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.006. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.812. That is the 15th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 15 consecutive days was June 11-25, 2017 (15 consecutive days). The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 82%.

Probably. My confidence in the warmth is greater than it is with the precipitation right now.

With 1.75" rain through 11:08 pm, New York City's year-to-date precipitation has surpassed 30.00". New York City's year-to-date precipitation for 2019 is now 30.02". New York City remains on track for its second consecutive year with 50.00" or more precipitation.

Over the past hour, Central Park picked up 1.14" rain and LaGuardia Airport received 1.36". A period of intense heat lies ahead for the East. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week into perhaps the start of next week (especially Friday through Sunday). The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above in New York City and upper 90s to 100° elsewhere in the Middle Atlantic region is on the table. Ahead of the excessive heat, the remnants of Barry will likely bring 1.00"-2.00" rain with locally higher amounts, some of which could approach or exceed 3.00" by the time the precipitation ends tomorrow. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 95% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 69% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 62.8°-65.1°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -11.33 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.480. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.808 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.743. That is the 14th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 14 consecutive days was June 11-25, 2017 (15 consecutive days). The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.5°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 82%.

Thunderstorm over the Long Island Sound early this evening.

Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. Before then, the remnants of Barry will likely bring 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts to the region. Some of the guidance is suggesting that the system could tap some Atlantic moisture resulting in a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts in parts of eastern New England, including Boston. Meanwhile, Anchorage appears headed for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 92% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 67% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. 12/18 (67%) of its 60.0° or warmer months occurred in 2000 and afterward and 6/18 (33%) occurred 2015 or later. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -6.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.494. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 15, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.732 (RMM). The July 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.835. The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.5°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 81%.

In part due to historic heat in parts of Europe (where more extreme heat could develop next week), the GISS global temperature anomaly for June was +0.93°C. That surpassed the June record of +0.82°C, which was set in 2016. The January-June 2019 period ranks 3rd warmest on record. In the East, the heat has yet to be severe. However, that is about to change later this week. Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -15.02 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.650. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.838 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.088. The first half of July was much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. In Central Park, the July 1-15 mean temperature was 79.0° (18th warmest on record). Records for New York City go back to 1869. In Philadelphia, the mean temperature was 79.7° (15th warmest on record). Records in Philadelphia go back to 1872. In Washington, DC, the July 1-15 mean temperature was 81.1° (19th warmest on record). Records for Washington, DC go back to 1871. The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 80.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 80%. 　 　 　

The probability of summer's most intense heat wave to date later this week has increased. Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -26.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.724. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 13, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.096 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.394. The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 79.0° (20th warmest on record) to 79.4° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 80.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 81%. The probability of an 80° or above mean temperature has increased to nearly 47%.