donsutherland1

Early this morning, Joe Bastardi retweeted a twitter post noting that Moscow had an unusually cold summer and wrote, "yet not a peep from the warming weather media." The reason the warmth, not Moscow's cold, received widespread news coverage is or should be largely self-evident: 1. This summer, warmth, not cold, was the big global story 2. Cold areas were relatively localized, but areas of warmth were widespread 3. Historic heat waves affected Europe (two of which shattered widespread all-time high temperature records, including national high temperature records) 4. Alaska experienced its warmest month on record and Anchorage's summer will likely match its warmest month on record prior to 2019 On August 1, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported: Exceptional heat has been observed across the globe in recent week, with a string of European countries logging record highs temperatures that have caused disruption to transport and infrastructure and stress on people's health and the environment. As the heat dome spread northwards through Scandinavia and towards Greenland, it accelerated the already above average rate of ice melt. "July has re-written climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at local, national and global level," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. "The extraordinary heat was accompanied by dramatic ice melt in Greenland, in the Arctic and on European glaciers. Unprecedented wildfires raged in the Arctic for the second consecutive month, devastating once pristine forests which used to absorb carbon dioxide and instead turning them into fiery sources of greenhouse gases. This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action," Mr Taalas said. "WMO expects that 2019 will be in the five top warmest years on record, and that 2015-2019 will be the warmest of any equivalent five-year period on record. . https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-matched-and-maybe-broke-record-hottest-month-analysis-began Below are the global Temperature Anomalies (June 1-August 27, 2019): Below are the GISS temperature anomalies and rank: June: +0.92°C (1st warmest June) July: +0.93°C (1st warmest July and also 1st warmest month) August: To be available by mid-September　 In sum, in the big picture, excessive and persistent warmth was the major story of summer 2019. Widespread monthly and all-time high temperature records were set. Localized areas of cold existed, but they were the exception this summer. Only few monthly record low temperature records were set. The coverage properly focused on the major weather story of this summer, the widespread and, in places, historic warmth.

Under bright sunshine, readings returned to near normal today. Somewhat above normal temperatures are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tomorrow. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Alta Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Banak, Norway: 75°; Berlevag, Norway: 75° (old record: 63°); Honningsvag, Norway: 70°; Ivalo, Finland: 75°; Kemi, Finland: 75°; Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Kiruna, Sweden: 72°; Kruunuppy, Finland: 81°; Kuopio, Finland: 79°; Kuusamo, Finland: 73°; Mehamn, Norway: 73°; Oulu, Finland: 79°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 75°; Sorkjosen, Norway: 75°; Vaasa, Finland: 81°; and, Vadso, Norway: 72° (old record: 61°). The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. That temperature would match what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 99%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. Moreover, San Francisco will likely experience its warmest August on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -15.05 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.948 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.171. Finally, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

The ugly side of the climate change denial movement... Excerpts from Scientific American: The verbal and written attacks derive mostly from men. That’s probably not a coincidence. Studies show that climate skepticism is a male-dominated perspective. Men are less likely than women to accept scientific conclusions about people being responsible for rising temperatures. And they’re more likely to overestimate their knowledge of the issue... “I do see a shift toward a lack of substance sharing,” Cobb said. “So much of the flak from the climate-denial community, I think, was in the form of trying to share graphs to show their point, trying to question you on the validity of the science. And a lot of that was very misguided, of course, but it was still pretending to be substantive, on the data, on the issues themselves. But it seems much of it today has turned completely to ad hominem attacks, these stream of emotionally laden insults with no substance whatsoever behind them, just trying to land one below the belt.” ...“I can tell you that there is a very large overlap between those who harbor conspiracy theories about climate science and those who express unenlightened views when it comes to matters of ethnicity and gender,” Mann said. “In short, yeah—a surprisingly large number of climate deniers are misogynists. And so our female colleagues are at the receiving end of a particularly toxic brew of denialism, conspiratorial ideation and misogyny. It is most unfortunate and most disturbing.” https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/as-climate-scientists-speak-out-sexist-attacks-are-on-the-rise/

As Tropical Depression Erin passes offshore, additional showers are likely in parts of New York and New Jersey. Steadier rain is likely across Long Island and parts of New England. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Bergen, Norway: 79°; Billund Lufthavn, Denmark: 84°; Bronnoysund, Norway: 81°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Floro, Norway: 79°; Groningen, Netherlands: 88°; Haugesund, Norway: 79° (old record: 68°); Kiruna, Sweden: 75°; Kramfors Flygplats, Sweden: 79°; Kristiansund, Norway: 82°; Meppen, Germany: 90°; Mo I Rana, Norway: 82°; Namsos Lufthavn, Norway: 84° (old record: 72°); Nordholz, Germany: 90°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82°; Odense, Denmark: 86°; Ostersund Froson, Sweden: 75°; Sandessjoen, Norway: 84° (new August record); Skrydstrup, Denmark: 86°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 82°; Vidsel, Sweden: 79°; and, Wittmundhaven, Germany: 82°.. The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 96%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -8.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.174. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.174 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.256. Finally, New York City has an implied 60% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

Following the coolest air mass since last June, temperatures began moderating today. In coming days, readings will return to near or just above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Much above normal temperatures covered parts of the West. Records included: Aurora, OR: 100°; Eugene, OR: 99°; Hoquiam, WA: 92°; Mount Shasta, CA: 98°; Newport, OR: 86°; Portland, OR: 98°; and, Roseburg, OR: 101°. Medford, OR had reached a near record 105° as of 5 pm PDT. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Amsterdam: 90° (old record: 80°); Antwerp, Belgium: 93°; De Kooy, Netherlands: 86° (old record: 78°); Deelen, Netherlands: 91°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 93°; Esbjerg, Denmark: 84°; Gilze en Rijen, Netherlands: 93°; Goteborg, Sweden: 81°; Groningen, Netherlands: 91° (old record: 79°); Karup, Denmark: 86° (new August record); Leeuwarden, Netherlands: 90° (old record: 78°); London-Heathrow: 91°; Malmo, Sweden: 86°; Meppen, Germany: 91°; Mildenhall, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Northolt, UK: 91° (old record: 81°); Orsta-Volda, Norway: 82°; Rotterdam, Netherlands: 90°; Stansted, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Vlieland, Netherlands: 86° (old record: 74°); Volkel, Netherlands: 91°; Wattisham, UK: 88° (old record: 77°); and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 88° (old record: 77°). The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 89%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -1.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.421. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 26, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.257 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.189. Finally, New York City has an implied 55% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

Much of the region experienced its coolest temperatures since June. Select low temperatures included: Boston: 57° (lowest since 6/14: 54°) Bridgeport: 57° (lowest since 6/15: 56°) Islip: 59° (lowest since 8/11: 58°) New York City: 61° (lowest since 6/22: 61°) Newark: 59° (lowest since 6/15: 56°) Philadelphia: 61° (lowest since 6/23: 61°) Poughkeepsie: 48° (lowest since 6/12: 47°) In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures is developing in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Many locations exceeded their daily record high temperatures by 5° or more. Select daily records included: Amsterdam: 86°; Bergen, Norway: 75°; Deelen, Netherlands: 90°; Haugesund, Norway: 77°; Humberside, UK: 88° (old record: 77°); Koksijde, Belgium: 86° (old record: 78°); Kristiansund, Norway: 79° (old record: 70°); Le Touquet, France: 86°; London-Gatwick: 86°; London-Heathrow: 90° (old record: 82°); Marham, UK: 88° (old record: 79°); Northolt, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Orsta-Volda, Norway: 81° (old record: 70°); Ostend, Belgium: 84° (old record: 76°); Poitiers, France: 97°; Rotterdam: 86°; Stansted, UK: 90° (old record: 81°); Stavanger, Norway: 79°; Vlieland,Netherlands: 82°; Waddington, UK: 88° (old record: 79°); and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 88°. In the southern United States, extreme heat again baked parts of New Mexico and Texas. Records included: Abilene, TX: 109°; Carlsbad, NM: 110° (new August record); Lubbock, TX: 109° (new August record); Midland, TX: 113° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 111° (new August record). Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 80%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +0.18 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.956. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.187 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.316. Finally, New York City has an implied 54% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

The record is 24 days, which was set in 1903.

The JAXA data suggests otherwise. 1990-2007: Mean Melt: 8.897 million square kilometers (59.4% of mean maximum) 2008-2018: Mean Melt: 9.916 million square kilometers (69.2% of mean maximum)

Do you have a copy of the Ball-Mann court decision? It seems from what was written above, the case was dismissed on procedural grounds and not the merits. Such rulings are not uncommon, as process is a critical element to rule of law. Indeed, as an example, the Supreme Court ruled on the Census case on the basis that the proper procedure/defensible argument (as opposed to a contrived one) had not been furnished in seeking to add a citizenship question to the Census. FYI: Upon looking further into this decision, for which I can’t find the ruling, Mann’s attorney provided a different account: https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1165677922872635392/photo/1 Looking further into the matter, Michael Mann's data and techniques are all available on his website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/tools/tools.php The Judge's decision very likely had nothing to do with data. As of now (8/26/2019, 5 pm EDT), there's still no publication of that decision.

The science doesn't suggest that in 12 years we will "die." That's a caricature of what the science is actually suggesting: time is somewhat limited if the world is to achieve its 1.5°C goal.

If one is referring to the AOC plan, I strongly oppose it. It contains substantial extraneous provisions that have nothing to do with climate/clean energy. Instead, those provisions would dramatically shift the U.S. away from a market-oriented economy. There are far better ways to approach the issue.

This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included: Islip: 61° (lowest since 8/12: 60°) New York City: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Newark: 62° (lowest since 6/24: 62°) Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°) Tonight will likely feature the lowest temperatures of this cool shot. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60° remains more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 40%. The current cool spell will likely last into mid-week. In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada over the next day or two. Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week. Daily record high temperatures included: Benson, UK: 90°; Birmingham, UK: 86°; Brize Norton, UK: 88°; Dresden, Germany: 90°; East Midlands, UK: 86°; Humberside, UK: 82°; London-Gatwick: 88°; London-Heathrow: 91°; Marham, UK: 88°; Northolt, UK: 91°; Satenas, Sweden: 75°; St. Gatien, France: 88°; Stansted, UK: 90°; Stavanger, Norway: 77°; and, Wittering, UK: 88°. Paris also reached a near-record high 90°. In the United States, record heat covered a portion of the Southern United States. Records included: Carlsbad, NM: 108°; Raton, NM: 97°; Midland, TX: 108° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 109° (new August record). Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 73%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -5.28 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.655. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.314 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.240. Finally, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

Abstract: The online video-sharing website YouTube is extremely popular globally, also as a tool for information on science and environmental topics. However, only little is known about what kind of information users find when they are searching for information about climate science, climate change, and climate engineering on YouTube. This contribution presents results from an exploratory research project that investigates whether videos found on YouTube adhere to or challenge scientific consensus views. Ten search terms were employed to search for and analyze 200 videos about climate and climate modification topics, which are contested topics in online media. The online anonymization tool Tor has been used for the randomization of the sample and to avoid personalization of the results. A heuristic qualitative classification tool was set up to categorize the videos in the sample. Eighty-nine videos of the 200 videos in the sample are supporting scientific consensus views about anthropogenic climate change, and climate scientists are discussing climate topics with deniers of climate change in four videos in the sample. Unexpectedly, the majority of the videos in the sample (107 videos) supports worldviews that are opposing scientific consensus views: 16 videos deny anthropogenic climate change and 91 videos in the sample propagate straightforward conspiracy theories about climate engineering and climate change. Videos supporting the scientific mainstream view received only slightly more views (16,941,949 views in total) than those opposing the mainstream scientific position (16,939,655 views in total). Consequences for the public communication of climate change and climate engineering are discussed in the second part of the article. The research presented in this contribution is particularly interested in finding out more about strategically distorted communications about climate change and climate engineering in online environments and in critically analyzing them. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00036/full

This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included: Allentown: 56° (lowest since 8/11: 56°) Bridgeport: 61° (lowest since 8/11: 61°) Islip: 62° (lowest since 8/12: 60°) New York City: 64° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Newark: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Philadelphia: 62° (lowest since 6/23: 61°) Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°) Washington, DC: 64° (lowest since 6/23: 63°) Even cooler readings are possible over the next several days. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60°-61° is far more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 25%. The current cool spell will likely last into early next week. In western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week. Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures has commenced in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week. Daily record high temperatures included: Agen, France: 95°; Caen, France: 90°; Cherbourg, France: 82°; Edinburgh, UK: 75°; Elista, Russia: 99°; Guernsey, UK: 82°; Jersey, UK: 86°; La Roche-Sur-Yon, France: 91°; Landivislau, France: 82°; and, Nantes, France: 93°. Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 71%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -7.10 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.094. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 23, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.237 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.123. Finally, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

The points the guide is making are: 1. Carbon dioxide has a long residency in the atmosphere. 2. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have been the dominant influence for recent warming. The IPCC explained: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. As the guide is intended for young audiences, it greatly simplifies the conclusions. Concepts such as probability and atmospheric residency are for older students. This is introductory material aimed at providing the big picture. It was vetted by climate scientists and the IPCC.

On August 23, Arctic sea ice extent was 4,412,266 square kilometers on JAXA. Based on sensitivity analysis, the following are implied probabilities for various minimum extent figures: 4.25 million square kilometers or below: 99% 4.00 million square kilometers or below: 86% 3.75 million square kilometers or below: 45% 3.50 million square kilometers or below: 9% 75th percentile: 3.918 million square kilometers 25th percentile: 3.635 million square kilometers Minimum extent figures based on historic 2010-2018 data: Mean decline: 3.776 million square kilometers Median decline: 3.788 million square kilometers Minimum decline: 3.941 million square kilometers Maximum decline: 3.618 million square kilometers Summary: Through August 23, Arctic sea ice extent remains firmly on a path that will very likely result in the second lowest minimum extent figure on record and the second such figure below 4.0 million square kilometers.

Earlier this year, France's Office for Climate Education prepared a guide for teachers on climate science. The guide was written in multiple languages and it was also publicized by the World Meteorological Organization. It would make a useful addition to any early STEM class that covers earth science. Among other things, the guide explains the ongoing warming, climate change impacts at 1.5°C and 2.0°C, potential approaches for achieving the Paris Agreement's target of limiting warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial temperature average, and addressing climate change within the context of sustainable development. The guide introduces educators and students to credible resources. For example, one task involves looking up the definition of "climate" on the World Meteorological Organization's website. It also provides a link by which users can visit the relevant portion of the IPCC's 2013 assessment. The report is consistent with the climate science consensus. Among other things, its summary explains: Human activities have caused a 1.0°C rise in the global temperature over the past 150 years. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052, if warming continues at the current rate. Our CO2 emissions will remain in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia, maintaining the warmer temperatures long after these emissions were released. The English version of that guide can be found at: http://www.oce.global/sites/default/files/2019-04/ST1.5_final_040419.pdf Under a creative commons license, it can be freely shared, used, and adapted for non-commercial use.

Cooler weather has now overspread the region. This cooler weather will likely last into early next week. In western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week. Across the Atlantic Ocean, this weekend will see the start of an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures in Europe. Record temperatures will likely be challenged and broken in many locations. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week. Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 70%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was 4.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.526. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. On August 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.123 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.106. Finally, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. The implied probabilities for New York City's receiving 50.00" or more precipitation this year are 70% (historical 1869-2018 period) and 80% (1971-2018 period). The least precipitation from August 24-December 31 occurred in 1931 when just 7.65" was recorded. The most was 32.57" in 1983.

With 0.53" rain through 9:59 pm, New York City's total rainfall for August reached 3.05". In addition, New York City's year-to-date precipitation reached 36.24", which surpassed the 36.22" that fell in 1949 for 137th place on the annual precipitation list.

Earlier today, Islip set a daily record high temperature of 91° (old record: 89°, 1976 and 2005); Boston tied its daily record high temperature of 93°, which was set in 1955 and tied in 2003; and, New York City-LGA tied its daily record of 93°, which was set in 2003. After some overnight showers and possibly a thunderstorm, several cooler than normal days lie ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions from tomorrow into early next week. With the arrival of cooler air imminent, the following are 90° days to date for select cities: Allentown: 20 Baltimore: 48 Boston: 14 Charleston, SC: 61 Harrisburg: 29 Hartford: 26 Islip: 8 New York City-JFK: 6 New York City-LGA: 23 New York City-NYC: 14 Newark: 23 Norfolk: 45 Philadelphia: 31 Providence:12 Raleigh: 59 Richmond: 54 Savannah: 83 Sterling: 45 Washington, DC: 51 Across western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week. Anchorage is poised to experience its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.5°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. The probability of a record warm August has increased. There is an implied 63% probability that 2019 could set a new August record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm) in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was 3.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.916. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. On August 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.114 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.102. Finally, New York City has an implied 67% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

I am not sure why you are confusing a term that describes a dynamic process with a notion that the past ‘causes’ today’s weather (or that 'weather statistics cause today's weather'). That’s not how scientists define climate change or the context in which events are discussed with respect to climate change. Statistics are measurement tools. Statistics are used in fields far beyond climate. Rates of change describe phenomena far beyond climate, too. One sees them in fields ranging from economics to engineering. No one in any of those fields is suggesting that statistics (used to measure change) drive the events that are being measured. Climate change is defined as “any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.” https://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/press_factsh_science.pdf The detailed definition of climate change is: Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’ The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition and climate variability attributable to natural causes. See also Climate variability, Global warming, Ocean acidification (OA) and Detection and attribution. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/ For a simple illustration, let's assume a case where the statistics reveal that the average temperature at a given location is rising 0.5°C per decade. Everything else in this simple illustration remains unchanged. On account of the warming, the statistical probability of a given threshold of heat has increased by a given percentage (assuming simple statistics and a Gaussian distribution). In the real world, let's assume that the frequency of cases meeting that threshold of heat has increased consistent with the statistical probabilities noted above. That increased frequency does not mean that the statistics by which temperature trend and probability of such cases were measured actually caused the increase in such cases. The underlying factors resulting in the warming are responsible. The same holds true with respect to events attributed to climate change. Statistics don't cause events. They measure things, some of which can cause or contribute to events. Finally, no one is disputing the reality that climate is dynamic. The issue at the forefront of contemporary discussions of climate change concerns the role of anthropogenic forcing as the predominant factor driving the contemporary warming. That anthropogenic role is "unusual" for different, as shifts to climate epochs during the past were driven by external forcing e.g., changes in solar irradiance. The current temperature trend cannot be explained by any of the known natural forcings or factors. It has diverged from what would be expected from those factors. It is strongly explained by the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.

Redundancy doesn't have to cover the whole system. Only a sufficient share of excess power capacity from alternative approaches needs to be available during the transition to cover issues that may arise. Complete failure of the entire system is not a likely scenario. Partial failure is. China is aggressively pursuing solar power and making rapid progress in terms of production cost effectiveness. Nuclear power is another alternative.

There’s actually growing evidence that climate change has an impact on tropical cyclones. Three examples: https://you.stonybrook.edu/kareed/2018/09/12/estimating-the-potential-impact-of-climate-change-on-hurricane-florence/ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL075888

The term "climate change" is used to refer to a dynamic situation, in this case the present ongoing observed warming. The increasing greenhouse gas forcing resulting from the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is primarily responsible for that warming. Internal variability (ENSO, etc.) occurs within the context of this increasing external forcing. Both have effects at synoptic and climatic timeframes with real societal and human impacts.

At 2 pm, Islip had a temperature of 91°. That broke the daily record of 89°, which was set in 1976 and tied in 2005.