donsutherland1

From Arctic researcher Julienne Stroeve: https://twitter.com/JulienneStroeve/status/1156641652787884038?s=20

The Middle Atlantic and southern New England region concluded a very warm July. In New York City, the mean temperature was 79.5°, which was 3.0° above normal. That was tied with 1983 as New York City's 11th warmest July on record. The last time July was warmer was in 2013 when July had a monthly average temperature of 79.8°. Such warmth has typically been followed by a warmer than normal August. Since 1869, New York City had 20 prior cases with a July mean temperature of 79.0° or above. The August mean temperature for those cases was 76.4° with a standard deviation of 2.2°. However, in the 11 cases in which the July average temperature was 79.5° or above, the August mean temperature was also 76.4°, but the standard deviation was just 1.2°. July 2019 falls into the latter warmer category. This data suggests that simply based on historical outcomes, August 2019 will very likely be warmer than normal in the region. Those historical outcomes are supported by teleconnections data and by at least some of the longer-range guidance. The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. Near-record to possibly record surface mass balance (SMB) loss could occur during that period. Already, rapid losses in SMB have been occurring. Professor Jason Box, ice climatologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland observed, "On the Arctic Circle, southwestern Greenland ice sheet, 2019 melt to-date is 1.3x that of the previous record melt at that location in 2010. 1.4x that in 2012." High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 66°; Kangerlussuaq: 72°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 66°; Nuuk: 50°; and, Thule: 54°. Anchorage has concluded its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. The July 2019 mean temperature was 65.1°. That easily surpassed the old record of 62.7°, which was recorded in July 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +3.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.647. A general tendency for blocking could persist through mid-August with perhaps some occasional fluctuations to positive values. This persistence of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 30, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.600. August will likely be warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The CFSv2, which understated the degree of warmth in July, suggests near normal conditions in August. However, based on the preponderance of date, it is likely an outlier. The potential exists for some cooler than normal to near normal readings from the middle of the first week of August into the latter portion of the second week of August. However, no notably cold readings appear likely. Afterward, warmer anomalies should return. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Those warm anomalies will likely persist into at least the start of September. Finally, On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers. Based on the average statistical decline and on sensitivity analysis, it is likely that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4.000 million square kilometers at its minimum for only the second time on record. Some probabilities from the sensitivity analysis: 4.500 million square kilometers or below: 84% 4.000 million square kilometers or below: 63% 3.500 million square kilometers or below: 36%

Approaching thunderstorm:

University of Liège climatologist Xavier Fettweis indicated that Greenland could experience its biggest one-day surface mass balance loss on record tomorrow: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAyrlbMXkAIeXa2.jpg:large

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.3 1.5

This is what denial looks like. The BBC reported: The top 10 warmest years on record in the UK have all occurred since 2002, a new analysis from the Met Office says. Its State of the UK Climate report shows that 2014 remains the warmest year in a temperature sequence now dating back to 1884. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49167797 The underlying report, which is packed with data, can be found at: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.6213 Tom Nelson tweeted the following response, "Sounds like complete BS to me: 'UK's 10 warmest years all occurred since 2002' - BBC News" https://twitter.com/tan123/status/1156527168572272640 When it comes to science, "sounds like" isn't a sufficient basis for arriving at a conclusion. It is nothing more than an evasion aimed at circumventing the rigor of the scientific method and its emphasis on evidence.In other words, he reached a conclusion without evidence, without data, without anything of substance to inform it. Put another way, his conclusion is little more than a conspiracy theory based on the implied premise that science and scientists are misleading the world. With respect to such conspiracy theories, the Oxford Research Encyclopedias explains: Conspiracy theories that accuse government of perverting science often view the conspirators as having socialist or totalitarian aims. Some Americans, Canadians, and others have objected to the government inclusion of fluoride into drinking water (Carstairs & Elder, 2008; Newbrun & Horowitz, 1999; Oliver & Wood, 2014b). They argued first that there was a conspiracy of silence to hide the negative side effects from an unsuspecting public (Connett, Beck, & Micklem, 2010), but also that fluoridation was the first step in a growing expansion of government control over an individual’s life, part of a trend in America toward socialism or totalitarianism … once the precedent was set for using public drinking water to medicate the population, the government would argue for the addition of birth control medication, or sedatives or an "anti-hostility" drug. (Reilly, 2006, p. 329)... Climate change denialist conspiracy theories often follow the same logic as other conspiracy theories accusing government. These conspiracy theories make a series of interrelated and often interchangeable claims: (1) that ideological organizations, including government, have used grant money to pervert the science; (2) that the peer-review process has become tainted by an oligarchy of scientists seeking to suppress dissent; (3) that climate science is less about science and more about socialist ideology; and (4) that larger international groups have faked climate science as a scheme to achieve global wealth redistribution or one-world government (Douglas & Sutton, 2015; Goertzel, 2010, 2013; Hurley & Walker, 2004). https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-328 In the end, when it comes to such flippant responses of denial, the public should reject them absent credible and sufficient evidence to support them. They should not be accepted at face value, especially in the absence of evidence. The absence of evidence reveals them for what they are, one variant in a range of conspiracy theories aimed at discrediting science and scientists.

On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. In response, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days. High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 64°; Kangerlussuaq: 66°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 59°; Nuuk: 55°; and, Thule: 61°. Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled. Earlier today, record low readings included: Kirkenes Lufthaven, Norway: 41°; Kuopio, Finland: 45°; Mikkeli, Finland: 39°; Saratov, Russia: 50°; and, Utti, Finland: 45° (tied daily record). Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.9°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +9.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.793. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 29, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.600 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.621. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.5°-79.7° (3.0° to 3.2° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, there is a chance that Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 6 million square kilometers on the July 30 or 31 reading. The earliest figure below 6 million square kilometers occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers.

During the natural climate cycles of the past 2,000 years, the timing of peak cold and warm periods (top 51 years) during each cycle differed globally. This time, the ongoing current warm period is starkly different. Instead, the timing of the peak warming (so far, as the warming is continuing) is astonishingly uniform. This suggests an outcome (impact of growing greenhouse gas forcing) that has largely overwhelmed "regionally specific mechanisms." A newly published paper explains: In contrast to the spatial heterogeneity of the preindustrial era, the highest probability for peak warming over the entire Common Era (Fig. 3c) is found in the late twentieth century almost everywhere (98% of global surface area), except for Antarctica, where contemporary warming has not yet been observed over the entire continent. Thus, even though the recent warming rates are not entirely homogeneous over the globe, with isolated areas showing little warming or even cooling, the climate system is now in a state of global temperature coherence that is unprecedented over the Common Era... Against this regional framing, perhaps our most striking result is the exceptional spatiotemporal coherence during the warming of the twentieth century. This result provides further evidence of the unprecedented nature of anthropogenic global warming in the context of the past 2,000 years. The above chart is from the referenced paper. The complete paper can be found at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1401-2.epdf

It should be noted that even if temperatures are measured in whole degrees, averaging over the entire global network over yearly periods can result in values that involve hundredths, thousandths, etc. In any case, the January-June 2019 vs. January-June 1998 average was nearly 0.3 degrees C.

I believe we have a shot during the second half of August into the start of September.

Yes. London’s temperature peaked at 100 at Heathrow Airport.

I suspect that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4 million square kilometers, which would be lower than the 2007 minimum. However, it will probably remain above the 2012 record.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland over the next several days. In response to the warmth that will likely exceed 3 sigma, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days. Records included: Copenhagen-Roskilde: 86°; Kristiansund, Norway: 84°; Molde, Norway: 84°; Orland Iii, Norway: 84°; Orsta-Volda, Norway: 84°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 86°; Trondheim, Norway: 90°; and, Vigra, Norway: 82°. In addition, high temperatures in Greenland included 64° at Ilulissat and 66° at Kangerlussuaq. Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled. Earlier today, Vadso, Norway registered a daily record low temperature of 41°. Near record low readings were also recorded at a few locations elsewhere in Scandinavia and also in France. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.8°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +9.23 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.817. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.619 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.752. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.3°-79.7° (2.8° to 3.2° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, the UK Met Office validated the July 25 reading of 38.7°C (102°F) at the Cambridge University Botanic Garden as a new national high temperature record.

Through June, 2019 is running well ahead of 1998 in terms of its global anomaly (just under 0.98°C above the baseline vs. 1998's 0.69°C above the baseline on GISS). Overall, through the first six months of the year, 2019 ranked 3rd warmest. 1998 ranked 10th warmest. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

Provisional UK National Record High Temperature Confirmed... The UK Met Office explained: A recording of 38.7°C at Cambridge Botanic Garden on Thursday 25 July has become the highest temperature officially recorded in the UK. The provisional value was released on Friday and has been subject to quality control and analysis over the past few days. It has now been validated by the Met Office observations’ team. This figure exceeds the previous record of 38.5°C recorded in Faversham, Kent, in August 2003. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/new-official-highest-temperature-in-uk-confirmed

I didn't say anything like that. Instead, I stated that recent changes in solar activity do not explain the ongoing observed warming. That is the point made by NASA, which I quoted. There has been a decoupling of the temperature trend (rising) from solar activity (relatively stable since the 1960s with some fluctuations).

In the wake of the historic heatwaves that rolled through Europe smashing all-time records (including setting 55% of the all-time record highs for France's 1,050 weather stations), it seems that the climate change deniers are in somewhat of a frenzy to redirect public attention from what happened and the underlying scientific basis. That scientific basis concerning the existence of climate change and its anthropogenic driver is now all but unequivocal overall, despite the existence of some residual uncertainties. Two recent examples from Social Media: Joe Bastardi: "Classic horribly biased reporting, BBC puts this out, but refuses to acknowledge that the planet is greener than ever in the satellite era. guess pictures of the greening earth won't lead to deception I dare the BBC to put that latter picture up, the reality of what is going on" Tom Nelson: "'Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions' #NIPCC" Reality is different. The denial that is underway has nothing to do with science. It is a rejection of science and the scientific method. A recent paper published in Nature Human Behavior distinguishes between scientific skepticism and the "science denialism" being advanced to mislead the public about climate change. Science denialism must not be confused with scepticism. Scepticism towards scientific propositions is a crucial element of science itself. In fact, it functions as a driving force of scientific debates and increases the quality of new propositions via mechanisms such as peer review and the replication of experimental research. The common ground of this functional scepticism is the scientific ethos that scientists use data to update their prior beliefs regardless of the outcome. However, in contrast to functional scepticism, science deniers accept evidence only if it confirms their prior beliefs--that usually contradict the scientific consensus. This dysfunctional scepticism is driven by how the denier would like things to be rather than what he has evidence for, making science denialism a motivated rejection of science. https://t.co/jysNBwsVA2 Bastardi's point ignores a key point about the "greening" that is underway: Arctic warming is leading to plant growth in a region that previously was too cold to support it. In other words, this plant growth provides confirmation of the climate change that Bastardi rejects. For more than 35 years, satellites circling the Arctic have detected a “greening” trend in Earth’s northernmost landscapes. Scientists have attributed this verdant flush to more vigorous plant growth and a longer growing season, propelled by higher temperatures that come with climate change. But recently, satellites have been picking up a decline in tundra greenness in some parts of the Arctic. Those areas appear to be “browning.” Like the salmonberry harvesters on the Kenai Peninsula, ecologists working on the ground have witnessed browning up close at field sites across the circumpolar Arctic, from Alaska to Greenland to northern Norway and Sweden. Yet the bushes bereft of berries and the tinder-dry heaths (low-growing shrubland) haven’t always been picked up by the satellites. The low-resolution sensors may have averaged out the mix of dead and living vegetation and failed to detect the browning. https://phys.org/news/2018-08-ecosystems-greener-arctic.html Nelson has cited solar activity to advance calls for global cooling to get underway. Yet, global temperatures continue to rise with little credible evidence of a decline and profound evidence of a decoupling from solar activity. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/1880-1920base.png The global temperature trend has diverged from solar irradiance. NASA observed: One of the “smoking guns” that tells us the Sun is not causing global warming comes from looking at the amount of the Sun’s energy that hits the top of the atmosphere. Since 1978, scientists have been tracking this using sensors on satellites and what they tell us is that there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth. A second smoking gun is that if the Sun were responsible for global warming, we would expect to see warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up to the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). But what we actually see is warming at the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a build-up of heat-trapping gases near the surface of the Earth, and not by the Sun getting “hotter.” https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/ It is imperative that the public be able to sort fact from fiction. The body of literature on climate change is large and growing. When it comes to the noisy movement to deny climate change, a good starting point is to ask why those who deny it have refused to put their ideas to peer review. It is easy to fire empty cannons from the sidelines. Peer review requires that one's ideas hold up to rigorous scrutiny that is a defining attribute of science. But, as noted above, science denialism is a rejection of science. Thus, the peer review channel is avoided.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records across western Europe has continued to affect Scandinavia and has spread westward to parts of Iceland. Records included: Arvika, Sweden 89°; Bodi Vi, Norway, 84°; Egilsstadir, Iceland: 75°; Floda, Sweden: 89°; Haugesund, Norway: 88° (tied all-time record); Helsinki-Kaisaniemi, Finland: 92° (all-time record; records go back to 1844); Laksfors, Norway: 92°; Mariehamn, Finland: 86°; Mo i rana, Norway: 90°; Mosjoen, Norway: 93°; Namsos Lufthavn, Norway: 93° (all-time record); Orland Iii, Norway: 90° (tied all-time record); Ostermund Froson, Sweden: 84°; Pori, Finland: 91° (tied all-time record); Roros Lufthavn, Norway: 84°; Rygge, Norway: 86°; Sandnessjoen, Norway: 88°; Trondheim, Norway: 90°; and, Turku-Artukainen, Finland: 90° (tied all-time record). Exceptional warmth will continue to shift northwestward to Iceland and then Greenland. During the first half of this week, parts of Greenland could see temperatures more than 18°F above normal. To put the 2019 heat into perspective, on account of the June and July heat waves, 576 of France's 1,050 (54.9%) weather stations set all-time high temperature records this year. Canada's Quebec Province again experience some record high temperatures. Records included: Gaspe: 88° (tied daily record); Natashquan: 82°; and, Port Menier: 83° (just missed the July record of 85°). Record cold will likely spill westward into Finland over the next several days. By midweek, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.7°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.774. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. On July 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.750 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.671. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.2°-79.8° (2.7° to 3.3° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, on July 27, Arctic Sea Ice extent (JAXA) was 6.288 million square kilometers. That was the lowest such figure for that date. It remains likely that this year's minimum figure will fall below 4.000 million square kilometers for only the second time on record.

In searching for forecasts for the minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent, I came across one source: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2019/july The median figure from that source is 4.28 million square kilometers. The statistical mean that I posted was 3.89 million square kilometers. I will probably re-run the data when I get back from abroad around 8/20 or so. By then, it should be much clearer whether 2019 can make a run at the 2012 record. As I suspect Arctic sea ice data is not normally distributed, like others above, I believe the probabilities for extremely low minimum values are higher than what is shown statistically. I also expect this year to finish with a minimum extent below 4.00 million square kilometers.

Some great charts for changes in Greenland's surface mass balance: http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2019-melt-season-over-greenland-as-simulated-by-marv3-9

I agree. That's part of the reason I provided a brief discussion of what could change things. I suspect that changes in ice minima may not be normally distributed.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records across western Europe has continued to affect Scandinavia and some nearby areas. Records included: Alvysbyn, Sweden: 92°; Bodo Vi, Norway: 88° (all-time record); Bronnoysund, Norway: 90° (all-time record); Haparanda, Sweden: 91°; Helsinki: 88° (tied daily record); Jyvasklyla, Finland: 88°; Kemi, Finland: 88°; Kiruna, Sweden (67.856° N): 82°; Kuopio, Finland: 90°; Kvikkjokk, Sweden (66.950° N): 91° (all-time record); Laksfors Norway: 96° (35.6°C) (tied national record); Lulea, Sweden: 86°; Mikkeli, Finland: 88°; Mo i rana, Norway: 91° (tied all-time record); Sandnessjoen, Norway: 90° (all-time record); Scatsa (Shetland Island), United Kingdom: 75°; Trondheim, Norway: 91° (all-time record); Umea Flygplats, Sweden: 86°; Utti, Finland: 88°; and, Vidsel, Sweden: 91°. Another day of record warmth is possible tomorrow in parts of Norway and Sweden. Afterward, that warmth will shift northwestward to Iceland and then Greenland. By early next week, parts of Greenland could see temperatures more than 18°F above normal. Record cold will likely develop in western Russia tomorrow and spill westward into Finland through early next week. By the middle of next week, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia. Separately, record high temperatures were also recorded in parts of Canada's Quebec Province today. Records included: Mont Joli: 88°; Riviere du Loup: 85°; and, Sept Iles: 82°. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.7°-65.0°. To further illustrate the changes that have been taking place in Anchorage, which is all but certain to record its warmest month on record this July, low temperatures of 60° or above were once uncommon. Prior to 2000 (1954-1999), the return time was once every 4.6 years. Since 2000, Anchorage has averaged 1.3 such dates each year; Since 2010, that figure is 1.9 per year; and, since 2015 that figure is 3.2 per year. July 2019 has seen 5 such days, which exceeds the annual record of 4, which was set in 2016. The 2019 total is 6 days. The last year during which Anchorage had no 60° or above minimum temperatures was 2014. At the same time, the number of days per year during which the temperature fell below 0° has fallen sharply. Prior to 2000 (1954-1999), the average was 29.1 days per year. Since 2000, that figure is 12.8; since 2010, it is 9.6; and, since 2015, it is 5.2. Prior to 2000, Anchorage saw 30 or more subzero minimum temperatures once every two years. Since 2000, there has been only 1 such case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.467. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. On July 26, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.672 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.484. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.2°-79.9° (2.7° to 3.4° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month.

On July 26, Arctic Sea Ice Extent was 6.385 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was below the previous minimum for the date of 6.512 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. 2012 went on to have a record low minimum figure of 3.177 million square kilometers. At present, it appears likely that 2019 will become only the second year on record with a minimum Arctic sea ice extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers. Ongoing climate change has been driving a long-term decline in Arctic sea ice extent, even as there have been yearly fluctuations due to internal variability. Since 2000, record low figures have occurred abruptly every few years followed by partial recovery. Since 2000, record figures below 6.000 million square kilometers were established as follows: 2002: 5.513 million square kilometers (peak prior to the next record: 5.934 million square kilometers, 2003) 2005: 5.179 million square kilometers (peak prior to the next record: 5.625 million square kilometers, 2006) 2007: 4.066 million square kilometers (peak prior to the next record: 5.054 million square kilometers, 2009) 2012: 3.177 million square kilometers (peak since then: 4.884 million square kilometers, 2014) Potential Minimum Extent Scenarios: Smallest decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2000-18): 4.810 million square kilometers Smallest decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 4.323 million square kilometers Mean decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 3.886 million square kilometers Median decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 3.966 million square kilometers Maximum decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 3.069 million square kilometers Statistical Minimum Extent Scenarios (2010-18 Data): 5.000 million square kilometers or below: 99.9% 4.500 million square kilometers or below: 95% 4.000 million square kilometers or below: 62% 3.750 million square kilometers or below: 36% 3.500 million square kilometers or below: 15% 3.000 million square kilometers or below: 1% New Record Low Minimum: 3% What could change things: These are statistical measures. Greater warmth and/or a more unfavorable pattern for preserving ice could lead to larger declines than implied statistically. A sustained period of cooler weather and/or a more favorable pattern for preserving ice could lead to higher figures than implied statistically. At least through the remainder of July, the balance of risks favors a greater decline than implied statistically. In part, the historic heat in Europe that is forecast to move into Iceland and Greenland in coming days may be partially the result of the warming Arctic via Arctic Amplification and the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as induced changes to the jet stream that lead to greater pattern persistence.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom yesterday has been shifting north. Nevertheless, more records were broken in parts of western Europe earlier today. Records included: Bergen, Norway: 92° (all-time record); Bologna: 100°; Cologne: 102°; Dusseldorf: 102° (3rd consecutive 100° day; none prior to 2019); Eindhoven, Netherlands: 102°; Etne, Norway: 95° (all-time record); Frankfurt: 102°; Haugesund, Norway: 88° (tied all-time record); Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 100°; Linz, Austria: 95°; Lugano, Switzerland: 95°; Markusvinsa, Sweden (north of the Arctic Circle at 66.725°N): 95°; Namskoggen, Norway: 94° (all-time record); Noervenich, Germany: 100°; Oulu, Finland: 84°; Overkalix-Svartbyn, Sweden: 94°; Paharova, Sweden: 92°; Stavanger, Norway: 90°; Tonisvorst, Germany: 105°; Verona, Italy: 99°; Vidsel, Sweden: 92° (all-time record); Vlieland Island, Netherlands: 90°; Volkel, Netherlands: 104° (tied all-time record); and, Ylitornio, Finland: 92° (all-time record). For those who are interested in the climate change link to the heat, below are some excerpts from a paper published in February 2018: We have analysed 50 climate model projections from the CMIP5 (RCP8.5) ensemble and calculated consistent and comparable metrics of climate impacts for HW, droughts and flooding for 571 European cities. More frequent and hotter HW are expected for all European cities. Southern cities see the largest increase in the number of HW days (as much as 69%). Note: "HW" stands for heatwave. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad3/meta In terms of the near-term weather, record warmth is possible tomorrow and perhaps Sunday in parts of Europe, especially parts of Norway and Sweden. Meanwhile record cold will likely develop in eastern Finland and a portion of western Russia during the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week. By the middle of next week, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.6°-65.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.184. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. On July 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.486 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.568. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently greater than 99%. Most likely range: 78.9°-79.9° (2.4° to 3.4° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month.