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donsutherland1

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Everything posted by donsutherland1

  1. donsutherland1
    It should be an exciting storm. Are you in North Carolina for the storm or watching developments from Amsterdam? P.S. RAH has updated its forecast map. RDU is now shown at 5" (vs. 2" from the earlier map).
  2. donsutherland1
    Given the ridge to the north, I suspect that the 18z run of the RGEM is an outlier. While I think the extreme eastern portion of Virginia could be in line for appreciable to significant snowfall, the overall body of the guidance still leads me to believe that the core of the heaviest snowfall will be over a portion of North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what the 0z guidance shows.
  3. donsutherland1
    The 18z RGEM:
  4. donsutherland1
    I'm presuming the forecast map will be updated soon. RDU is currently shown at 2". Based on a blend of the guidance, I'm thinking 3"-6". I haven't looked at the 18z guidance, yet, so maybe something changed.
  5. donsutherland1
    Thanks for the kind words. I'm hoping that this forum gets to enjoy a really memorable event.
  6. donsutherland1
    Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall. Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow. Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record. All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.
  7. donsutherland1
    Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range):
  8. donsutherland1
    FWIW, 4 of GSP's 6 biggest snowstorms and 4 of GSP's 7 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred in December.
  9. donsutherland1
    Yes.
  10. donsutherland1
    It started running.
  11. donsutherland1
    I agree. IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.
  12. donsutherland1
    FWIW, even as it's really early to use the Bufkit soundings products, snow accumulations from Charlotte and Raleigh were approximately 15" and 8" respectively on the 18z GFS. More fell, but those were the accumulations (maximum temperature algorithm).
  13. donsutherland1
    A moisture-laden storm will bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Lower Middle Atlantic region during the December 9-11 period. Cities such as Atlanta, Charleston, Pensacola, and Tallahassee could pick up 2" or more precipitation. As a result, 2018 would rank among the 15 wettest years on record for a number of those cities. Farther north, the pattern remains consistent with the composite 500 mb patterns that have seen significant accumulations of snow in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Further, the guidance has gradually moved into increasing consensus for a moderate to possibly significant snowfall in such cities as Asheville, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Raleigh, and Roanoke. With cold air damming likely to precede the storm and a strong ridge likely to block it from turning sharply up the Coast, my confidence in a track favorable to the Lower Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast has continued to increase. Consistent with many of the notable snowstorms to affect this region, accumulating snow will likely remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line. There is also a possibility that the accumulating snow remains south of Washington, DC and its nearby Virginia suburbs.
  14. donsutherland1
    95.83", not that 0.01" makes much of a difference. ILM will probably need one or two additional storms beyond the weekend event with moderate or greater precipitation to get to 100".
  15. donsutherland1
    Even as most or all of the precipitation today is done, I expect Washington to easily surpass its existing annual precipitation record.
  16. donsutherland1
    I believe there's a pretty good chance that both the November and annual precipitation records will be broken.
  17. donsutherland1
    I expect DC to set a new record. I would be quite surprised if it didn’t.
  18. donsutherland1
    4th with 58.58" precipitation. That record is within reach. The record is 61.33", which was established in 1889.
  19. donsutherland1
    Thanks for posting Dr. Stroeve's Arctic sea ice extent data. I hadn't seen this paper and it really reinforces the dramatic changes that have been taking place in the Arctic region.
  20. donsutherland1
    As of 10:50 pm, 1.65" rain had fallen at Richmond. That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 54.15". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 1996 when 54.13" precipitation fell as Richmond's 10th wettest year on record.
  21. donsutherland1
    As of 5:20 pm, Richmond had picked up 0.41" rain. That brings 2018 precipitation to 49.00". As a result, 2018 now ranks just ahead of 1923 as Richmond's 31st wettest year on record. During 1923, Richmond had 48.96" precipitation. 7 pm update: Richmond's annual precipitation reached 50.00". 2018 is only the 24th year on record with 50.00" or more precipitation in Richmond.
  22. donsutherland1
    The National Weather Service's report on the extraordinary warmth in western central and southwestern Florida during September can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/media/tbw/topnews/Sept2018_final.pdf
  23. donsutherland1
    Amazing streak.
  24. donsutherland1
    If the wind is onshore, Tampa's high temperatures are capped. As such, the mean temperature is lower than it would otherwise be. Throughout late September, the prevalent wind directions were either east or northeast, avoiding the cooling sea breeze. That's what allowed Tampa to break its September mark by more than 2° (while some inland areas beat their existing mark by 0.5° to 1.0°. Today was another such case with no sea breeze. The temperature topped out at 96°, which surpassed the old October mark of 95°, which was set on October 9, 1941. The prevalent wind direction from the daily climate report released a short time ago: WIND (MPH) RESULTANT WIND SPEED 6 RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION NE (50) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (60) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.4
  25. donsutherland1
    CHS had a mean temperature of 81.5°. The previous September record was 79.8°, which was set in 1980 and tied in 2016.
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