donsutherland1

Temperatures soared to their highest levels since early October. Highs included: New York City: 77° (highest since 79°, 10/7/2019); Newark: 80° (highest since 80°, 10/7/2019); and, Philadelphia: 79° (highest since 82°, 10/7/2019). In the wake of today's unseasonable warmth, a short push of cold air is likely. As a storm comes eastward late in the weekend, there is a chance that parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, could see snow early next week. Parts of this highlighted area have the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall, but there remains significant uncertainty. Initial snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Scranton: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -8.23 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.592. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.714 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.372. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 72% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely during the beginning of the weekend. Ahead of this push, readings could soar into the 70s as far north as southern New England. There is a chance that parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey into southern New England, could see snow early next week. This area has the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall, but there remains significant uncertainty. A light accumulation might even be possible in the Newark-New York City area. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -14.60 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.154. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.376 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.938. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 70% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely during the beginning of the weekend. Ahead of this push, readings could soar into the 70s as far north as southern New England. The closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -21.16 today. That is the lowest SOI value since February 15 when the SOI was -21.95. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.915. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The March 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.310. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 71% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

I believe that was 1867-68.

The March 1-17 mean temperature in New York City was 48.2°. The GFS, which was 1.4° cooler than the model consensus was farthest away (largest cool bias).

IMO, it's among the 5 worst (low snowfall and warmth).

During the 1983 blizzard, Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC received less than 20" snow. During PD2, both NYC and Washington, DC received under 20" snow.

Earlier today, parts of New England saw some snowfall. Snowfall amounts included: Boston: Trace; Burlington: Trace; Providence: Trace; and, Worcester: 0.3" Nevertheless, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -14.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.878. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.309 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.423. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 60% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record.

Today saw temperatures run somewhat below normal across the region. However, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.705. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.422 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.943. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 62% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record.

The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions are continuing to experience drier than normal conditions. Such conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of March. Year-to-date precipitation amounts include: Allentown: 6.33" (0.81" below normal); Baltimore: 6.78" (0.80" below normal); Boston: 5.04" (3.41" below normal); Islip: 6.71" (2.13" below normal); New York City: 5.39" (3.16" below normal); Newark: 5.17" (3.00" below normal); Philadelphia: 5.98" (1.26" below normal); Poughkeepsie: 3.95" (3.32" below normal); Providence: 5.21" (4.01" below normal); and, Washington, DC: 6.51" (0.33" below normal). Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until March 20-22 when another short push of cold air occurs. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +4.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.032. There remain hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 14, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.941 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.130. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

They almost certainly won’t. A sort of sunk cost fallacy appears to be driving things. The issues may eventually be resolved, but by then the other global models will have been improved even more and the loss of confidence in the GFS will be greater than might otherwise have been the case. The legacy product exists. Transitioning the legacy model to 4D-Var initialization would take about two years (length of time the ECMWF took in making the transition) would probably be a far more constructive course.

So far. Things could change, especially if things evolve toward the rumored La Niña (IMO, it’s too soon to reach that conclusion) vs. the El Niño that evolved in 2002.

Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until March 20-22 when another short push of cold air occurs. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.678. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

On February 29 and March 4, the GFS showed sizable to historic snowfalls for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions for the March 11-13 timeframe. That period ended with the mercury topping out at 70° in New York City. No snow was recorded in the Middle Atlantic or southern New England regions. In sum, the GFS scenarios were likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

Ahead of a push of modestly cooler air, temperatures soared to much above normal levels in much of the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 75°; Islip: 65°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 72°; Philadelphia: 74°; Richmond: 80°; and, Washington, DC: 77°. Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.722. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.032 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.190. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

A system will bring some rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. Afterward readings will surge into the 60s before modestly cooler air overspreads the region. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.11 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.580. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.111, which was set in 1994. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 11, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.191 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.323. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The probability that March 2020 will be among the 10 warmest March cases has increased further.

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +1.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.006. The previous daily record was +3.296, which was set in 1977. There are now some emerging hints that a "final warming" seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through March 19. On March 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.499. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Expecting that the forecast EPO- will lead to sustained cold will likely lead to more disappointment in a disappointing winter/opening to spring. Given the impact the sustained strongly positive AO has had on the atmosphere, one will likely see a continued tendency for ridging and above normal temperatures in the East during the March 11-25 period overall despite the forecast development of a negative or strongly negative EPO. One saw such circumstances during the same period in 1990 when the EPO averaged -1.000 or below following the extreme AO+ for February. Overall, March remains on course to be much warmer than normal.

Temperatures again soared into the 60s across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Winter 2019-2020 became the 9th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through March 10. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 6.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 88% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1991-92 with 12.6" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.597. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.498 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.904. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

I’m sorry to hear this.

Temperatures soared to much above normal levels today. High temperatures included: Albany: 74°; Boston: 72°; Bridgeport: 62° (old record: 61°, 2017); Hartford: 74°; Islip: 63°; New York City: 71°; Newark: 73°; Philadelphia: 71°; and, Providence: 72° (old record: 70°, 2016). An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.830. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.894 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.143. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the 50s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 59°; Allentown: 59°; Bridgeport: 52°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 59°; Newark: 60°; and, Philadelphia: 59°. Tomorrow will be even more springlike as thermometers top out in the upper 60s and perhaps even lower 70s in some places. Overall, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures now lies ahead. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.29 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.453. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 16, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.117 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The likelihood that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases has continued to increase.

Today was a springlike day. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s under brilliant sunshine and a light breeze. The day was ideal for outdoor activities and even early-season boating.

The powerful offshore storm that brought 1"-3" snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket, along with winds that gusted past 50 mph continues to move away from the region. Starting tomorrow, much warmer air will begin streaming into the region. Afterward, an extended period of warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal conditions is likely. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -5.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.890. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 15, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.797. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

A storm developing offshore will bring a cold rain to the region tonight. Interior areas and parts of eastern New England could experience snow with perhaps a light accumulation. The exceptions are portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket where a 2"-4" snowfall is likely. In the wake of the storm, tomorrow will be blustery. However, much warmer air will return starting Sunday. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.239. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 14, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of March. On March 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.791 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.796. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.