donsutherland1

I agree. Almost certainly, multiple reasons including personal experience, have contributed to the shifting opinions. Those opinions are consistent with scientific understanding. However, scientific understanding, alone, very likely hasn't driven the trend. A poll that probes the shift would be interesting. It would also be helpful to scientists who have been trying to communicate the message against the noise of the climate change denial movement.

Warmer air will push back into the region beginning tomorrow. Based on the forecast pattern and some of the guidance, there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could pose a risk to parts of the East Coast next week. Recurvature away from the East Coast is more likely than not. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -28.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.558. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 12, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.595 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.075. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 60%.

Despite the loud and ferocious campaign led by the shrinking climate change denial movement, the latest polling suggests that the American people are increasingly reaching climate-related conclusions based on science. A new Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation poll revealed, among other things, that 79% of respondents recognize that human activity is causing climate change and that 76% believe climage change is a major problem or crisis (38% each) vs. 59% in 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-kaiser-family-foundation-climate-change-survey-july-9-aug-5-2019/601ed8ff-a7c6-4839-b57e-3f5eaa8ed09f/

Probably a combination of internal variability and climate change. Certainly, the region is forecast to grow wetter by the climate models. One has witnessed a rise in precipitation in many parts of the Northeast in recent decades. One has also witnessed an increase in exceptionally wet years, too. Some additional information can be found here: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/18/ https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-precipitation-and-climate-change/

Some additional precipitation statistics for New York City: Average annual precipitation: 1869-1970: 42.89"; 1971-2018: 50.74" Years with 50" or more precipitation: 1869-1970: 12; 1971-2018: 21

Cooler readings moved into the region this afternoon and will likely predominate through tomorrow before warmer air returns. Farther south, record-tying and record-breaking heat prevailed in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Records included: Baltimore: 97° (old record: 96°, 1931); Lynchburg, VA: 96° (tied record set in 1895); Richmond: 98° (tied record set in 1900)); Roanoke, VA: 96° (tied record set in 1933); Sterling, VA: 95° (tied record set in 1995); and, Washington, DC: 98° (old record: 96°, 1895 and 1931). Based on the forecast pattern and some of the guidance, there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could pose a risk to parts of the East Coast next week. Recurvature away from the East Coast also remains on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -24.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.473. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 11, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.082 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.509. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 60%.

Time has devoted an entire issue to climate change under the provocative title "2050: The Fight for Earth." The publication contains a wide range of articles ranging from a fairly optimistic piece by Bill McKibben of a scenario where the world was able to avert the worst of climate change to an article by Penn State professor of atmospheric science and director of its Earth System Science Center, Michael Mann who writes that lifestyle changes, alone, are insufficient to address the challenge of climate change. Not every article is science-related. However, the content is based on the dual premises that (1) the world is warming and (2) anthropogenic activities are largely responsible for that warming. Every serious data set shows that there has been an observed and persistent warming. The scientific evidence pointing to the anthropogenic basis of that warming is overwhelming. Put another way, all serious scientific debate has been settled on the core issues of whether the world is warming (it is) and whether human activities are largely responsible (they are). Residual uncertainties related to feedbacks such as the rate and impact of glacial retreat and non-linear questions concerning the rate of sea level increase remain to be resolved. But the overall reality of climate change and the anthropogenic driver of climate change are established beyond any serious scientific dispute. Therefore, just as astronomers today accept that the earth revolves around the sun, the magazine proceeds from the climate foundation that has been demonstrated by science. Just as astrophysics gives no weight to disproved belief systems of the past related to the solar system, the magazine ignores disproved denial of climate change. Fiction has no place in the important public discourse, especially that related to a big issue such as the world's changing climate. In building from the firm foundation of scientific understanding, Time seeks to provide a broad portrait of climate change as it continues to play out. Its articles include a degree of science. They also talk about human society and human health. Overall, Time's focus on one of today's biggest issues makes an important contribution to public discussion.

Parts of the region saw temperatures reach 90° or above. Through today, 90° or above days are as follows for select locations: Allentown: 21 Atlanta: 74 Baltimore: 52 Boston: 14 Charleston, SC: 71 Harrisburg: 30 Hartford: 26 Islip: 8 New York City-JFK: 6 New York City-LGA: 24 New York City-NYC: 14 Newark: 25 Norfolk: 47 Philadelphia: 33 Providence:12 Raleigh: 65 Richmond: 60 Savannah: 96 Sterling: 47 Washington, DC: 54 Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time with some short intervals of cooler readings, one of which will likely be Friday and Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -11.70 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.506. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.508 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.633. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 65%.

This is disappointing, but not surprising. It was clear from the onset that the unattributed NOAA statement was a political statement. That the origins are being traced to the White House can be expected given how forcefully and persistently the President clung to his erroneous statement concerning Dorian and Alabama.

In the New York City area, September has increasingly become an extension of summer. Prior to 2000, a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above was relatively uncommon. Prior to 1950, Central Park saw such warmth about once every 5.4 years. From 1950-1999 (during which the City has had a mature urban footprint), such warmth was recorded approximately once every 4.5 years. Since 2000, 70° Septembers have occurred about once every 2.1 years. There have been 9 such Septembers during the 2000-2018 period, which is just below the figure of 11 recorded during 1950-1999. Since 2010, New York City has had 6 cases where September had a mean temperature of 70° or above, including the last four years. During the 1951-80 base period, the statistical probability of a 70° September was about 24.5%. Since 2000, the statistical probability has increased to just over 42%.

Today's edition of The Washington Post has a feature story on climate change. In part, the story notes: The mysterious blob covers 130,000 square miles of ocean, an area nearly twice as big as this small country. And it has been heating up extremely rapidly — by over 2 degrees Celsius — or 2C — over the past century, double the global average. At its center, it's grown even hotter, warming by as much as 3 degrees Celsius, according to one analysis. The entire global ocean is warming, but some parts are changing much faster than others — and the hot spot off Uruguay is one of the fastest. It was first identified by scientists in 2012, but it is still poorly understood and has received virtually no public attention... The South Atlantic blob is part of a global trend: Around the planet, enormous ocean currents are traveling to new locations. As these currents relocate, waters are growing warmer. Scientists have found similar hot spots along the western stretches of four other oceans — the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, the South Pacific, and the Indian... The fastest-warming zones include the Arctic, much of the Middle East, Europe and northern Asia, and key expanses of ocean. A large part of Canada is at 2C or higher. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-world/ Following a historically hot summer, at the time of this article's publication, parts of Europe are engulfed in their fourth bout of record-breaking heat since June. Record temperatures were set in numerous parts of Finland, Norway, and western Russia earlier today. And in a recurrent theme, the number of daily record high temperatures vastly exceeded the number of daily record low temperatures. Svolvaer and Tromso, both in Norway, even tied their highest September temperatures on record. Although the scientific evidence for climate change and its anthropogenic basis is now overwhelming, some persist, especially on Social Media such as Twitter, to deny what is now undeniable when one rationally and objectively considers the scientific evidence. While many of those on Social Media lack scientific backgrounds and/or understanding, and this critique excludes them for that reason, some are involved in science-related fields where, unless they had not kept up with the advances in the literature since the 1970s, there is no defensible scientific reason to push back against the findings related to climate change. Perhaps astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson described that phenomenon quite well when he observed, "When scientifically investigating the natural world, the only thing worse than a blind believer is a seeing denier." He continued, "When people believe a tale that conflicts with self-checkable evidence it tells me that people undervalue the role of evidence in formulating an internal belief system." That gets to the heart of the matter. The "internal belief system" of climate change denial--and it's a non-scientific belief system, as the evidence for climate change and its anthropogenic nature, even respecting residual uncertainties, is now unequivocal--is sustained by a fundamental rejection of evidence.

Much warmer weather will push into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow. Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time with some short intervals of cooler readings, one of which will likely be Friday and Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -11.11 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.278. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.629 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.492. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 68%. 　

No. The underlying data is publicly available. That wasn’t the issue. The data can be found here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/MANNETAL98/

As far as I know, the case never got to the merits of the issue.

I have no issue with the chart itself. It was likely accurate at the time it was made. Today, it is obsolete.

Earlier today, Joe Bastardi tweeted a global temperature chart that ends in 1995. It's unclear whether he recognized when the chart ended. The link to @tan123 brings one to a widely-known climate change denier. https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1171386083051016193 The chart is misleading. The world has continued to warm since then. The 2018 global temperature anomaly was 0.40°C (0.72°F) above the 1995 figure (+0.85°C/1.53°F in 2018 vs. +0.45°C/+0.81°F in 1995). Further, to remove the noise of internal variability, the 30-year moving average in 2018 had increased to +0.57°C (+1.03°F) from +0.16°C (+0.29°F) in 1995. The red line on the bottom chart depicts the 1995 global temperature to help illustrate how things have changed since then. All temperature data is from the GISTEMP data set. Finally, the linear trend line shows an annual increase of +0.021°C (+0.038°F) since 1995. The coefficient of determination is 0.75.

Much warmer weather will push into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas by mid-week. Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time. Earlier today, the temperature reached a near record 99° in Atlanta. That was the hottest September reading there since September 8, 1941 when the temperature also reached 99°. Today was also Atlanta's 72nd day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is tied with 1943 for Atlanta's 11th highest annual figure on record. Records go back to 1879. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -21.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.174. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.495 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.101. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 66%.

In his blog article, Spencer claims, "(And, no, there is no fingerprint of human-caused warming. All global warming, whether natural or human-caused, looks about the same...)" http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/09/the-faith-component-of-global-warming-predictions/ His understanding is badly dated. The accumulating evidence strongly suggests otherwise. 1. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has been rising steadily. 2. No natural factor to explain this outcome has been identified. It does, however, have a strong correlation with greenhouse gas emissions by humanity (not all of which are being absorbed in sinks). https://www.c2es.org/content/international-emissions/ 3. The 13C/12C ratio in the atmosphere has been decreasing. CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are of the 12C isotope. That declining ratio offers overwhelming evidence that the origin of the rising atmospheric concentration in CO2 is the burning of fossil fuels. https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/co2/iso-sio/iso-sio.html?pagewanted=all 4. The climate models best represent recent warming when rising greenhouse gas forcing is included. There has been a decoupling between global temperature trends and natural forcings. That the evidence demonstrates that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for the rising atmospheric concentration of CO2 provides an unmistakable "fingerprint" of the anthropogenic cause of the ongoing warming).

There are two big issues with the above commentary: 1. A 5%-10% probability of tropical storm-force winds in the far southeast portion of Alabama is far from a "most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated" scenario. 2. Had the President simply acknowledged that he misspoke (an issue that was corrected by BMX in a timely and sufficiently forceful fashion to regain control over sentiment as the Office was being bombarded by calls from worried Alabama residents) or refrained from commenting on the issue, the matter would never have spiraled to its present state. However, he took a different approach and, IMO, the worst possible one.

If politics can be permitted to supplant science when it comes to weather forecasting, it is or should be an open question whether politics will be permitted to displace unfavorable economic data at some future point in time. This is a bad and damaging precedent, not just for the scientists/meteorologists who have been adversely impacted, but for the U.S. public who relies on them.

Right now, the ensembles are not suggesting the kind of severe AO/NAO block that was in place prior to and up to Sandy's dramatic left-turn. That doesn't mean that a tropical cyclone can't threaten part of the East Coast, only that the probability of a Sandy-type scenario is probably a low one given the present guidance.

The current estimated sea level rise is 3.7 mm per year. The full data can be found at: https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html

Post-tropical Dorian is now moving toward the Newfoundland coastline and will be heading out into the north Atlantic. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, pleasant readings will prevail over the next few days. However, by mid-week, an extended period of warmth will develop, as heat that has been covering the southeast expands northward. In the South, a number of new record high temperatures were tied or set. Its some of that air mass that will eventually expand northward. Records included: New Orleans: 99° (old record: 96°, 1980); Pensacola: 97° (tied record set in 1980); Tallahassee: 98° (tied record set in 1917 and tied in 1925 and 1990); and, Vero Beach, FL: 94° (old record: 93°, 1949, 1977, and 1978). Records were also shattered in parts of Alaska. Records included: Deadhorse: 66° (old record: 63°, 2010); Gulkana: 70° (old record: 69°, 1979); and, Hoonah: 75° (old record: 70°, 2010). The temperature at Hoonah set a new September record, surpassing by one-degree the record that was set on September 1, 2019. In addition, through 4 pm AKD, Utqiagvik (Barrow) had a daily low temperature of 47°. If that figure stands, it would be the highest September minimum temperature on record for that location. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -20.92 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.230. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City. On September 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.101 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.165. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 63%.

The public information statement concerning Dorian's winds is not official data. Those data and other data will be subject to quality control before any data is finalized. Such quality-controlled figures will be part of the National Hurricane Center's report on Dorian. Because of the unofficial nature of the data, public information statements often carry the following disclaimer or others like it, "The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region..."

Post-tropical hurricane Dorian continues to pull further away from the region. At 6:15 pm AST, Dorian made landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Tonight and tomorrow, Dorian will likely make landfall at Prince Edward Island and then Newfoundland before heading out into the north Atlantic. In part due to Dorian's vigorous circulation, parts of the region experienced their coolest readings of the season so far earlier today. In New York City, the temperature fell to 56° this morning. That was the lowest temperature since June 13 when the mercury bottomed out at 55°. At Philadelphia, the temperature reached 58°, its coolest figure since June 15 when the minimum temperature was 53°. This early preview of autumn will give way to an extended period of warmth beginning during the middle of next week, as heat that has been building in the southeast expands northward. In the South, a number of new record high temperatures were tied or set. Its some of that air mass that will eventually expand northward. Records included: Charleston, SC: 95° (tied record set in 1941 and tied in 1947); Miami: 94° (tied record set in 2017); New Orleans: 99° (old record: 94°, 1951, 1963, and 1980); Pensacola: 96° (old record: 95°, 1980 and 1990); and Tallahassee: 99° (old record: 98°, 1941 and tied in 1990). In addition, today could be Utqiagvik's (formerly Barrow) 50th day of the year with a low temperature of 40° or above. The old record was 32 days, which was established in 1998. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -15.27 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.225. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. Nevertheless, a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. On September 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.154 (RMM). The September 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.228. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 58%.