donsutherland1

Joe Lundberg is still listed on the Accuweather site: https://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/joe-lundberg In addition, he is referenced on the WHUD radio site (noting his affiliation with Accuweather): http://www.whud.com/meet-the-whud-djs-joe-lundberg/ He simply might not be blogging any longer.

January 20 is rushing things. There should be some transient cold shots rather than unrelenting warmth during the thaw. The pattern evolution back toward a colder, snowier one should commence toward the end of January. The transition could take about a week.

The Euro should be interesting. Its 12z run was a rather large departure from its earlier runs and the relatively consistent GGEM.

Both the 0z NAM and GFS have taken a step toward the upper air pattern that has been shown on the GGEM.

40.0" snow, including 9.7" in December. February 11-12, 2006 saw 26.9" snow fall at Central Park, which was the Park's biggest snowfall on record until 27.5" fell on January 22-24, 2016. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

The latest date for the first reading in the 40s is October 20, which was set in 2005.

To date, New York City (Central Park) has had no minimum temperatures below 50°. Since 1869, only nine previous years saw the first sub-50° reading after October 10. A number of those winters saw average to above average snowfall. The relevant nine winters are below: 1898-99: 55.9” snowfall 1909-10: 27.2” snowfall 1910-11: 25.2” snowfall 1955-56: 33.5” snowfall 1969-70: 25.6” snowfall 1995-96: 75.6” snowfall 2002-03: 49.3” snowfall 2005-06: 40.0” snowfall 2007-08: 11.9” snowfall At this time, it is premature to reach firm conclusions about the upcoming winter.

This anecdote illustrates the limitations of satellites. Satellites can provide enormous value, but there are some limitations. One limitation concerns surface temperatures, including SSTs. Direct observations (buoys, reconnaissance, etc.) provide better assessments of SSTs.

As of this evening, former Hurricane Jose maintained a weak circulation near 38.6°N 68.0°W. At the same time, Hurricane Maria was along the periphery of a weak ridge located to its east-northeast. That position coupled with Jose's persistence suggests that the window of opportunity for development of ridging to steer Maria to landfall is closing fast. During the day, the ECMWF and GFS and with their ensembles remained consistent with their preceding runs. The guidance suggested that Maria would likely remain offshore. In addition, the probabilities associated with the full climatology data set and adjusted climatology data set fell to 28% and 20% respectively based on Maria's 5 pm position. My guess is that Maria's probability of U.S. landfall has now fallen to below 20%. North Carolina's Outer Banks could still experience tropical storm conditions. There remains a modest probability that some part of that area could briefly experience hurricane conditions. However, Maria is very likely to avoid U.S. landfall.

Over the past 24 hours, Hurricane Maria has remained on a reasonably steady course just west of due north. It has also retained major hurricane status and that could continue to be the case into at least tomorrow morning. Its general motion is likely to continue for the short-term. Eventually, Maria is likely to approach North Carolina's Outer Banks bringing tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions there. However, odds continue to favor its center remaining offshore. At closest passage, a position between that of Hurricane #3 in 1896 (74.7°W) and Hurricane #1 in 1949 (76.7°W) seems possible, even as it is somewhat west of the ECMWF. My guess is that Maria will come as far west as 73°W to 75°W before turning away from the United States mainland. That is consistent with the latest ECMWF guidance, which has generally performed quite well. One key ingredient for a farther west track would involve Jose's faster dissipation. This evening, Jose was maintaining a weakening but still vigorous center of circulation near 38.9°N and 68.0°W. That circulation will likely slowly fade, but the system probably won't dissipate for at least another 24-36 hours. Hence, the opportunity for ridging to develop to Maria's north prior to the arrival of a trough that will likely sweep it out to sea is limited. Prior to then, a weak ridge to Maria's northeast will likely keep it on a generally north to north-northwest trajectory. That bearing could slowly reduce Maria's prospects of making U.S. landfall. The implied probability for such landfall fell to 44% based on hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 5 pm position. The adjusted data set, which incorporates the synoptic situation, is around 35%. Both figures are lower than they were yesterday evening. Based on the GEFS and EPS, with greater weight placed on the EPS, I belive the probability of U.S. landfall has remained essentially unchanged from that of yesterday evening. I continue to place that probability at 25%.

Since 1851, NC has experienced 52 hurricane impacts or about 1 every 3.2 years.

Bonnie is also in my adjusted data set.

The guidance has weakened Jose a little faster and delayed the arrival of the trough somewhat. The end result has been a shift toward a closer call for landfall for Maria. The 18z GFS takes Maria on a track that is remarkably similar to that taken by Hurricane #1 (1949). That hurricane approached the North Carolina Outer Banks before turning sharply away from the East Coast. For those who are interested, that storm's track can be found here. Based on Maria's 8 pm position, the climatological odds of U.S. landfall have increased. In the unadjusted cases, 56% of storms made U.S. landfall, almost evenly split between Florida and North Carolina. In the adjusted set, approximately 40% made landfall with North Carolina, by far, the preferred location for landfall. Among the hurricanes in that data set are Connie (1955), Ione (1955), Gloria (1985), Fran (1996), and Floyd (1999). On account of the shift in the ensembles and increase in the adjusted climatological data set, I've modestly revised my thinking on the probability of U.S. landfall. At present, I'm thinking there is a 25% probability as opposed to the 20% figure yesterday.This is a compromise between the EPS and adjusted climatological data set. It is also close to the implied probability on the 18z GEFS.

Historical climatology based on hurricanes within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 11 am position are consistent with the modeling showing only a very low probability of landfall in Atlantic Canada (around 10%). Nova Scotia was favored, but landfall appears to be very unlikely at this point.

Earlier today, the CMC showed Hurricane Maria making landfall in eastern North Carolina and then tracking north-northwestward into Virginia. However, that outcome was the result of the model's forecasting complete dissipation of Tropical Storm Jose by 72 hours. Early dissipation of Jose would increase prospects for Maria's making landfall, as there would be much less weakness in the ridging to its north. Its the development of more expansive ridging that leads to Maria's north-northwestward track to landfall on the CMC. A stronger Jose would contribute to Maria's staying offshore. Neither the GFS nor ECMWF show Jose's dissipation by 72 hours. The ECMWF is the strongest with Jose and it maintains a remnant low through 120 hours. At present, Jose is slowly weakening. The gradual weakening should continue even as Jose undergoes extratropical transition. Nevertheless, on account of Jose's still expansive circulation--which remains larger than that of the far more intense Maria--it will take some time for the storm to wind down. As a result, a solution between the GFS and ECMWF is more likely than the CMC's landfall idea. The majority of EPS and GEFS ensemble members support that outcome. In the meantime, Maria has continued to head a shade west of due northwest in recent hours. A gradual turn more toward the north will likely commence tomorrow afternoon or evening as it reaches the edge of a weak ridge to its northeast. In the longer-term, in part due to the synoptic impact of Jose's persistence, Maria will very likely turn away from the Eastern Seaboard. Finally, several recent runs of the GFS have shown the development of a tropical system in the Caribbean near the end of that model's forecast range. The area in which the model has hinted at development is one associated with a high probability of systems that make U.S. landfall, so that may be something to watch for following Maria's likely departure out into the Atlantic during the next 7-10 days.

The probability of Maria's making landfall in the U.S. Mainland has declined overnight. The guidance came into somewhat better agreement concerning Jose's fate and, as a consequence, some of the uncertainty concerning Maria's fate was also reduced. Based on hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 8 am position (19.9°N 68.7°W), historical climatology (1851-present) showed approximately half making U.S. landfall. However, that figure significantly overstates the actual probability of Maria's making landfall. When the pool is refined for those that made U.S. landfall and those that didn't, one comes up with the following numbers: Average Longitude at 22.5°N Latitude: U.S. Landfall: 74.6°W (σ=3.0°) No. U.S. Landfall: 70.6°W (σ=2.3°) Average Longitude at 25.0°N Latitude: U.S. Landfall: 77.7°W (σ=3.3°) No. U.S. Landfall: 71.9°W (σ=3.1°) Maria is expected to be at more than 1 standard deviation to the east of average for storms that made U.S. landfall. It is also likely to be fairly close to the mean figure for those that did not make landfall. Overall, the adjusted data set implies a landfall figure of around 20%. Fewer than 20% of the combined EPS and GEFS ensemble members show U.S. landfall. The 9/21 0z run of the ECMWF again indicates that Maria will not make landfall and it did not show the kind of closer call seen on the preceding 9/20 12z run. Considering this data and the statistics for landfalling storms vs. those that did not make U.S. landfall from the climatological sample based on Maria's 8 am position, I believe the probability of U.S. landfall is now about 20%. U.S. landfall is very unlikely. Finally, looking at past storms that were significantly weakened after crossing either Puerto Rico or Hispaniola (implying structural damage to their core), Maria probably won't see an increase in its maximum winds beyond 10 knots to 20 knots from its post-Puerto Rico figure (95 knots). The window of opportunity for intensification will likely begin to close within the next 18-36 hours, so unless a bout of rapid intensification occurs, it is unlikely that Maria will regain strength that exceeds maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) to 115 knots (130 mph). However, intensity forecasting typically has low verification scores, so my confidence in these figures is no better than moderate.

Topography certainly matters.

Hurricane David (1979) provides a classic example of how Hispaniola can damage intense hurricanes. David came ashore in the Dominican Republic with 150 knot winds. 18 hours later, it exited Hispaniola with 65 knot winds. Later it recovered somewhat with its maximum sustained winds reaching 85 knots, but it never returned to its earlier vicious state.

Ultimately, yes. But by then Maria will already have found the weakness in the ridge (due in part to Jose's current expansive circulation) and Jose's remaining circulation will still have enough influence to assist in Maria's turning out to sea. IMO, it's no coincidence that the earlier GFS runs that showed Maria posing the greatest chance of landfall were those that also featured much faster weakening in Jose, along with its faster departure from the scene so to speak.

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

I was thinking of a scenario kind of like Helene in 1958 with a sharp turn to the east with the slower forward motion. The window of opportunity ahead of the trough's arrival is limited. I don't see Jose getting in position to push Maria northwestward onto shore.

Based on Maria's 11 am position (18.4°N, 66.5°W) over northern Puerto Rico almost between Arecibo and San Juan, there is little change in the probability of landfall based on the historic data set and the data set adjusted for the current synoptic pattern. It appears that Maria will likely find a weakness in the ridging to its north-northeast somewhere in the vicinity of 72.5°W-73.5°W. This scenario is consistent with the 9/28 0z run of the ECMWF. The ECMWF has displayed consistently superior performance throughout the duration of Maria's lifetime so far. By 72 hours, no model has come close to its performance. For purposes of comparison, the GFS has an error that is twice as large as the ECMWF. The lower-verifying GFS, not the ECMWF, has periodically flirted with landfall scenarios on a number of runs over the past two days. By the time Maria reaches the weakness, it will likely turn northward and then come under the increasing influence of Jose's still expansive circulation. Most of the overnight guidance resulted in Jose's circulation shrinking especially beyond 72 hours, but not enough to allow Maria to escape its influence. Therefore, if the guidance is right, Maria should then turn northeastward and away from the U.S. Coast. Based on the overall spread in the EPS and GEFS combined with the adjusted data set (1-in-3 probability of landfall), there still remains some possibility of landfall on the mainland U.S. My thinking of a 30% probability may be a bit generous, but there haven't been sufficiently large changes in the guidance for me to change that idea. Possible factors that could increase Maria's landfall prospects include: 1. More expansive ridging to Maria's north that results in its tracking farther west than currently modeled 2. More persistent ridging to Maria's that results in a delayed turn to the north toward the influence of Jose's circulation 3. More rapid weakening and/or departure of Jose than currently modeled 4. Slower forward motion for Maria than anticipated over the next 72 hours

Since 1851, 15 hurricanes made landfall in Puerto Rico. 60% went on to make U.S. landfall. However, 2/3 of then were at or west of 70°W longitude when they reached 20°N latitude and 78% were at or west of 74°W longitude when they reached 25°N latitude. Almost all of the guidance has Maria passing east of those benchmarks. Therefore, based on those benchmarks and the guidance, there is a much lower likelihood of U.S. landfall than what might be implied solely from climatology.

No. That storm made additional landfalls in Jamaica and Belize. By the time it made landfall in Belize, it was a tropical storm.

At 11 pm, Hurricane Maria was centered at 17.3°N 64.7°W. Maria was continuing to bear down on Puerto Rico where it should make landfall tomorrow morning either as a Category 4 or perhaps Category 5 hurricane. The EPS continued to argue strongly against strongly against Maria’s making landfall on the Continental United States. However, both the 18z GFS and 18z GEFS increased prospects of such landfall. In part, this guidance weakened Jose faster than the ECMWF did and it showed Jose having less interaction with Maria than the ECMWF did. The probability associated with historical climatology (1851-present) associated with hurricanes that developed in the 8/15-10/15 period and that passed within 100 nautical miles of Maria’s 11 pm position was slightly lower than was the case at 11 am. That probability was approximately 45%. However, an adjusted perspective based on the synoptic pattern yielded a landfall probability of 31%. The adjustments were based on (1) excluding tropical cyclones that tracked into the Gulf of Mexico and toward either Central America or Mexico or Texas to Louisiana and (2) excluding landfalls for 9 of 12 Florida landfall cases from the data set. The excluded cases were hurricanes that were west of 70°W upon reaching 20°N latitude. At present, Maria is likely to be somewhere between 68.5°W and 69.5°W at 20°N latitude. That is very close to the forecast position shown on the 12z ECMWF. The ECMWF has been averaging an error of about 30 miles over 48 hours so far with Maria. Therefore, I am reasonably confident that Maria will be east of 70°W when it reaches 20°N latitude. The last four NHC forecasts for Maria’s longitude at 20°N latitude were: 5 am forecast: 69.0°W 11 am forecast: 68.8°W 5 pm forecast: 69.2°W 11 pm forecast: 68.7°W Overall, as had been the case this morning, I believe the probability of Maria’s making landfall on the mainland U.S. is about 30%. The East Coast would be overwhelmingly favored for any such landfall.