donsutherland1

Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 80s across the region. Saturday will likely be somewhat cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Noticeably cooler air will likely overspread the region early next week. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s during the first half of next week. The extended range guidance increasingly suggests that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +0.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.342 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

This outcome is consistent with the warming summers that the region has been experiencing. Warming is measured by summer mean temperature. I constructed a chart for seven regional sites for the last 60 years and pegged the shading to the median value for each site.

Phoenix's annual monsoon is changing in a warming climate. The most pronounced changes are fewer rainy days (days with measurable precipitation), reduced monsoon season precipitation, and a hotter monsoon season. The dramatic warming of the Monsoon Season shows up prominently in the Ed Hawkins-styled warming stripes: These developments are consistent with some of the literature concerning climate change and its impact on North America's monsoon season. Two examples: "It is found that the monsoon response to CO2 doubling is sensitive to sea-surface temperature biases. When minimizing these biases, the model projects a robust reduction in monsoonal precipitation over the southwestern United States, contrasting with previous multi-model assessments." Source: Pascale, S., Boos, W., Bordoni, S. et al. Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming. Nature Clim Change 7, 806–812 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3412 "Within climate science... focus has begun to include the growing role warming temperatures are playing as a potent driver of greater aridity: hotter climate extremes; drier soil conditions; more severe drought; and the impacts of hydrologic stress on rivers, forests, agriculture, and other systems. This shift in the hydrologic paradigm is most clear in the American Southwest..." Source: Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Udall, Bradley. Climate change and the aridification of North America. PNAS, Vol. 117, No. 22 (2020). https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2006323117

Yesterday was the first time since July 2, 2021 that saw Newark and White Plains pick up 1" or more of rain, while JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Central Park had less than 1" of rain. It was the first time where Bridgeport received no precipitation when Newark and White Plains picked up 1" or more of rain, while JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Central Park had less than 1" of rain.

White Plains picked up 1.12" of rain in the past hour.

Most of the time, JFK has a higher daily high temperature than Bridgeport during the summer. During summers 2000-2024, JFK had a higher maximum temperature on 58.7% of days; Bridgeport had a higher maximum temperature on 27.4% of days; both locations had equal high temperatures on 13.9% of days. In addition, there were 61 days where Bridgeport reached 90° or above when JFK Airport didn't (about 2.4 days each summer). The distribution of those days was: June: 19.7%; July: 47.5%; August: 32.8%. Last summer, there were three. Today was the first day this summer.

New Haven reached at least 89.

Parts of the region again saw temperatures reach 90° or above. Bridgeport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all reached or exceeded 90°. Through August 13, Bridgeport has had 15 highs of 90° or above while Central Park has 13 such days. Bridgeport has never had a calendar year with more 90° highs than Central Park. The most anomalous heat remained in northern New England and parts of eastern Canada. Caribou reached 90° for an all-time record-tying fourth consecutive day with a daily record high of 94°. Its four-day average high temperature of 93.3° broke the old record of 92.8° from June 17-20, 2020. Goose Bay, NL had a provisional high of 97°, which set an August monthly record. Showers and thundershowers are likely into tomorrow. Some areas could see heavy downpours. Tomorrow through Friday will still be warm days. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 80s across the region. Saturday will likely be somewhat cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Noticeably cooler air will likely overspread the region early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +4.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.563 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.8° (0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Caribou has reached 90F (32.2C) for the fourth consecutive year. That ties the record for most such consecutive days. The record was set during June 15-18, 1949 and tied during July 25-28, 1963 and August 29-September 1, 2010.

Conceptually, it could be done. I suspect that reasons that such classifications have not been pursued are the additional elements of duration and nighttime temperatures that help define heatwave severity.

There are many variables that are involved. SSTAs could promote a tendency for ridging in various locations. Teleconnections could influence the positioning of such synoptic features. Rossby waves can also shape the development of the synoptic pattern.

Only 1983 did it.

The position of the ridge and how far north the jet stream is. The position of the ridge allows for some onshore flow in the NJ-NYC-CT areas. Miramichi, Caribou, Bangor, Burlington and Montreal were in prime spots for maximum heating.

Miramichi is inland. It isn’t affected by the sea breeze.

Near record and record heat again covered parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Preliminary highs: Bangor: 97° Boston: 90° Buffalo: 91° Burlington: 98° (new daily record) Caribou: 94° (new daily record) Concord: 95° Gaspé, QC: 97° (new all-time record) Manchester: 94° Miramichi, NB: 101° (new all-time record) Montreal: 94° (new daily record) New York City-Central Park: 91° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91° Newark: 92° Ottawa: 95° Plattsburgh: 92° (new daily record) Portland: 90° Tomorrow and Thursday will be very warm days. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90° in parts of the area. Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend. The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The weekly guidance suggests that the remainder of the months will be close to normal. As a result, of the cooling of the extended guidance, the sensitivity analysis has flipped toward a slightly cooler than normal outcome for the month overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -10.80 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.492 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

No. The 82 was the only high of 80 or above and just the third 80 or above high on record for November.

The IOD has been declining in recent months and has already turned negative. It seems that things are on track for the forecast.

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included: Bangor: 96° Buffalo: 91° Burlington: 96° Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020) Concord: 97° Manchester: 96° Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970) Saranac Lake: 90° Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°. Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend. The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -10.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Temperatures topped out several degrees above the guidance today, in part to abnormally dry conditions. The region is off to its driest starrt to August since 2010. During the first 10 days of August, the combined total precipitation for Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark is 0.23". That is the lowest figure since August 1-10, 2010 when just 0.13" was measured. In stark contrast, August 1-10, 2024 had already seen 23.25" of rain. Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend. The ongoing warming trend will continue. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat this week. Newark already reached 90° today for the 32nd time this year. LaGuardia Airport also reached 90°. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots when the heat peaks during the Tuesday through Thursday period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -14.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.173 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

A bigger problem is meteorologists such as JB posting such graphics. In his case, he’s arguing that the odds favor landfall. Everything I have seen suggests otherwise—maybe a 2-in-3 likelihood of recurvature. It’s early, still. But that is where things stand with Invest 97.

Temperatures in the greater New York City area have exceeded the guidance this afternoon, in part due to the driest start to August since 2010. Newark reached 90 for the 32nd time this year.

Yesterday’s 5.74” at Milwaukee was its second highest daily amount on record. Six of the top ten daily rainfalls have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1871.

Central Park finished the August 1-10 with 9 low temperatures below 70°. The last time that happened was August 2017. The August 1-10, 2025 average low of 65.2° was the lowest August 1-10 average since 1992 when the mean low was 64.4°.

2011 had it largest impacts on the August and September trends (1970-2024).

Yes, Antarctic ice cores show that the temperature rose shortly before CO2 started rising by centuries to 1,000 years. The initial warming was triggered by changes in the Earth's orbit, which allowed for an increase in solar insolation. As oceans warmed, CO2 was released (the outgassing you mentioned). The released CO2 then drove a continuation of the warming. Today, humanity has bypassed Milankovitch Cycles, which once served as the trigger for the initial warming. Humanity began reintroducing CO2 to the atmosphere via the burning of fossil fuels. As atmospheric CO2 has increased, that has driven temperatures higher. In terms of incoming solar radiation, a 3.7 W/m² increase in forcing (just over 1%) may seem small. But it's the imbalance that matters. For example, during the last ice age, there was a -3.9 W/m² imbalance (1.1%). Nevertheless, the latest research now suggests that the Last Glacial Maximum was about -6.1°C cooler than current temperatures. Regarding the recent 4.8°C estimate, I need to see more. I am open to it, because highly respected scientists in the field are now suggesting that climate sensitivity could be higher than consensus estimates when a better understanding of feedbacks is considered. I will watch the evolution of the debate and incoming data on this matter. Finally, I think there's a world of difference between one's having honest questions (your case) and those pontificating on the matter when they provide no credible alternative explanations and/or have done no research whatsoever on climate/climate change.