donsutherland1

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°. Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record*** Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record*** Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000) Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993) Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974) Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009) Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940) Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974) Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record*** Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record*** The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +24.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today. On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

Welcome back to the climate subforum. I hope all is well with you.

Michael Mann is far more than just a statistician. His educational background is: 1998 Ph.D. Yale University, Department of Geology & Geophysics (defended 1996) 1991 M.Phil. Yale University, Department of Physics 1991 M.S. Yale University, Department of Physics 1989 A.B. (double), University of California-Berkeley, Applied Math, Physics (Honors) Why do you think the field of climate science is “kind of useless.” If anything, the demand for climate science is increasing in a world where climate change is increasingly manifesting itself in extreme events, including the ongoing drought and heat that extends from the Southwest into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Tucson is already in the midst of an extreme heat event (Clarke, et al., 2014 methodology). Last year, Phoenix experienced two such events in a single year for the first time on record. Records there go back to 1896. The changing climate has enormous macroeconomic and societal implications. Even as the primary cause of the ongoing climate change is no longer debated in scientific circles, important uncertainties ranging from feedbacks to potential tipping points exist. There is much work to be done in the field. Moreover, the public is looking for increasing information on climate change. And the Weather Channel is poised to integrate climate change into its programming to serve that public need. I like your posts on El Niño and the SOI—I think highly of them—but I profoundly disagree with your statement, “research and controversy exists because it is less clear what happens to the trends at a regional and seasonal level, which means it isn't settled, not really.” Any controversy is not the result of scientists disagreeing on the big issue of what is happening and why, it is due to the climate change denial industry that is desperately seeking to prop up an unsustainable greenhouse gas-polluting fossil fuel industry. That industry, like the Tobacco one before it, has injected disinformation into the public discourse aimed at fostering doubt and delegitimizing science. That disinformation has had some impact. Moreover, the fossil fuel industry is enjoying a free ride unlike any other industry. The IMF has calculated that the fossil fuel industry receives the equivalent of an after-tax annual subsidy in excess of $600 billion per year, as the public bears the full cost of its externalities. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019089.ashx (p.35) You write, “But the public has literally no use for knowing that the oceans are forecast to rise, given record populations in coastal areas.” Again, I strongly disagree. Even as coastal areas account for just 10% of the U.S. land, 127 million people reside there. This is information the public needs to know. Ignorance of such information is a recipe for disaster. Finally, according to the most recent GAO report on the topic, climate science research funding came to $13.2 billion in FY 2017. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-18-223

It has happened there a number of times.. Yesterday's was the earliest on record, though.

At 3 pm MDT, Casper had a temperature of 101°. That smashed the daily record of 93°, which was set in 1946 and tied in 1959 and 1987. It is also Casper's earliest 100° temperature on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on June 21, 2016. Summer records go back to 1940.

Yes, that is true. My point is one would need to be careful when dealing with large-scale changes that may come with large unforeseen and unintended consequences. I believe that the safer course is more aggressive winding down of fossil fuel energy.

This morning, the preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 85°. The temperature should reach 115° or above this afternoon, but there remains a risk that smoke from the Telegraph fire could trim temperatures by 1°-2°. Meanwhile, the final high temperature at Medicine Hat, AB was 100° yesterday.

Friday might offer the best chance, but the smoke from the Telegraph fire, which held down temperatures yesterday, could thwart it.

There would be risks, some of which are unforeseen, with geoengineering. For example, it might prove harmful for the overall environment. Moreover, if every country starts engaging in it, the outcome could be disruptive and have potential to lead to conflict.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 82° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 79.5° Newark: 30-Year: 81.8°; 15-Year: 81.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.4° A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 15: Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the model values*** Tucson: 110°, 1896 (Forecast: 112° to 116°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight. Tomorrow will be turn partly sunny and seasonably warm. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Billings: 103° (old record: 98°, 1959) ***Hottest so early in the season*** Casper: 99° (old record: 96°, 2018) Death Valley, CA: 118° Denver: 98° Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1974) Great Falls: 99° (old record: 98°, 1987) Medicine Hat, AB: 99° (old record: 86°, 2009) Phoenix: 113° (smoke shrouded the sun at times) Salt Lake City: 103° (old record: 101°, 1974) Tucson: 112° (old record: 111°, 1993) The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 15-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +16.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.513 today. On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.976 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.449 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

For reference, Dr. Hansen’s testimony can be found here: https://pulitzercenter.org/sites/default/files/june_23_1988_senate_hearing_1.pdf Graphs depicting global temperature anomalies can be found here: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/

Unofficially, the temperature fell to 82° at Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport this morning at 6:04 am MST. Phoenix will likely approach or break its daily record of 115°, which was set in 1987. If the temperature reaches 116° or above, that would be the highest temperature so early in the season. The existing record earliest 116° or above temperature occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature topped out at 118°. The temperature again reached 118° on June 19, 2017. One factor that could inhibit the heat would be smoke from the Telegraph wildfire that could dim the sun if it drifts over the Phoenix area. Elsewhere, Casper could make a run at its earliest 100° reading on record today or tomorrow. That record was set on June 21, 2016 when the temperature reached a high of 100°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with some periods of rain in the morning and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms can be strong. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.2° Newark: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.1° The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 14: Phoenix: 115°, 1987 (Forecast: 114° to 118°) Tucson: 111°, 1993 (Forecast: 110° to 112°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

No worries. It can happen.

Temperatures will likely remain somewhat below normal through midweek. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave is now under way in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Death Valley: 116° Phoenix: 113° Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 100°, 1918) Tucson: 112° (old record: 110°, 1924) Winslow, AZ: 106° (old record: 104°, 1918) The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 14-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 14: 115°, 1987 June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record) June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +4.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.639 today. On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.445 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.136 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

On this, we strongly disagree. Dr. Mann’s revised thinking on what appeared to be a multi-decadal oscillation is a good illustration of how evidence informs scientific conclusions. It is not a defect that undermines climate science. It is testament that climate science is based on evidence and, when the evidence leads to revised conclusions, the conclusions give way to the evidence. They are constructed based on the evidence, not in spite of it. That is a far cry from the approach taken by the climate change denial movement where conclusions are built to serve political or ideological ends that are often in direct contradiction of the evidence. Dr. Mann’s revised thinking does not, in any way, undermine the scientific understanding of ongoing climate change and its predominant cause. There is currently overwhelming scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change. Empirical evidence includes warming surface (land and ocean) temperatures, increasing oceanic heat content, ice sheet mass loss, declining Arctic sea ice extent minima, increasing ocean acidification, and measured increases in greenhouse gas forcing. As expected from the Greenhouse Effect, the troposphere is warming while the stratosphere is cooling. Consistent with the burning of fossil fuels, which contain the lighter C12 isotope, atmospheric C13 has been falling relative to C12. On account of the dominant role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, temperature trends can no longer be explained by using only natural forcings. Temperature trends have decoupled from solar irradiance. Clear scientific understanding of climate change—what is happening (warming) and why it is happening (anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions)—now exists. That’s where the debate is finished if one reviews the scientific literature. Nuances and residual uncertainties remain. The existence of the AMO and its role provided one example. Uncertainties concern feedbacks, potential tipping points, ice sheet evolution, etc. They do not extend to the conclusion that the world is experiencing an ongoing warming event and that increasing greenhouse gas forcing (due to anthropogenic emissions that have created a persistent situation where total emissions > total uptake) is the predominant driver of that warming. The climate change denial movement has been pushing frames as a substitute for credible scientific work—after all, this anti-science movement possesses no credible alternative explanation for the ongoing warming, even as it bears the burden of proof, if it wants the scientific debate reopened. The most common frames being advanced by the climate change denial movement are targeted at undermining the science through fear, attacks on the science, and exaggeration of uncertainty. These frames include, “climate change is a myth or scare tactic perpetuated by environmentalists, bureaucrats, and political leaders”; “Mainstream climate research is ‘junk’ science”; and, “The scientific evidence for climate change is uncertain” (Dunlap and McCright, 2015).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 79° The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve. Out West, record-breaking heat will develop across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 13: Phoenix: 114°, 1936 (Forecast: 112° to 116°) Tucson: 110°, 1924 (Forecast: 111° to 113°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. Tucson set a daily record high temperature of 110° yesterday. The old record was 109°, which was set in 1924 and tied in 1933 and 1995.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 102 96 98 97 106 99 103 102 119 94

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and again somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Out West, an extreme heatwave is now developing in the Southwest, including Phoenix. Late this afternoon, the temperature reached 110° in Phoenix for the first time this year. Last year saw a record 53 such days (prior record: 33, 2011). The least 110° days on record was 0, which was set in 1911. The average number of such days per year is 20.3 (1991-20 normals), which was an increase of 2.3 days from the 1981-10 normals. The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936 June 14: 115°, 1987 June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 13: 87°, 2018 June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record) June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +1.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.086 today. On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.136 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.512 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 77° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s. Out West, record-breaking heat will develop in Phoenix. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

How does giving a name to what once appeared to be an oscillation driven by internal variability, but is now suggested to be a forced outcome based on modeling that goes back a millennium in time, cause one to lose faith in a scientist researching it? That his research may verify earlier hypotheses should have no adverse impact on his credibility.

The weekend will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, despite a cooler weekend, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936 June 14: 115°, 1987 June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 13: 87°, 2018 June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record) June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 It should also be noted that the earliest temperature above 115° occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. A year later, the temperature again reached 118°. This record will likely be broken. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.460 today. On June 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.512 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.746 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).