donsutherland1

An Arctic air mass is poised to invade the region. The frigid air will begin to move into the region tomorrow. Parts of the area could see some snow showers or even a snow squall that could briefly whiten the ground. Monday and Tuesday will see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +5.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.113 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.098 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.218 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal).

ISP had 16”. There was an area of < 10” that included BDR, JFK, LGA, and NYC. I suspect subsidence contributed to those lower amounts, as higher amounts were recorded to the east and west. If there wasn’t such an area of reduced amounts, the argument about measurements might have had greater validity. JFK had a low of 20.

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° Noticeably colder air will arrive tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 55.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 57.1°

No. NYC had a low of 21.

The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. A fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot is likely as a very cold air mass overspreads the region on Sunday. The arrival of the cold air could produce snow flurries and perhaps snow showers in parts of the region. Monday and Tuesday could see low temperatures fall into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was -1.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.635 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.219 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.321 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (2.9° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 63° Noticeably colder air will arrive this weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.6° Newark: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.0°; 15-Year: 56.7°

Overnight, it will be mostly cloudy. Some periods of rain and showers rain possible. The sun will likely return as the day progresses tomorrow. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +4.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.162 today. On March 22 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.314 (RMM). The March 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.652 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.9° (3.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain and showers. The afternoon will turn milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 63° Noticeably colder air will arrive this weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8° Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain. It will turn milder with readings climbing into the 50s. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.209 today. On March 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.646 (RMM). The March 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.170 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become cloudy today. Showers and periods of rain will develop during the afternoon or evening hours. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 56° Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8° Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9°

The exceptional cold shot occurred a few days earlier than 3/22 in 1967. The temperature fell to 8 on 3/19 in NYC.

Tomorrow will become mostly cloudy. Some showers are likely and temperatures will hold in the 40s across much of the region. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude later during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.366 today. On March 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.172 (RMM). The March 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.036 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 62° Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 52.5° Newark: 30-Year: 52.7°; 15-Year: 53.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.8°; 15-Year: 55.5°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit cooler. The middle part of the week will be unsettled and briefly cooler with some rain and showers. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern that could last into the closing days of March. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +12.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.529 today. On March 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.039 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.796 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 67° Somewhat cooler readings are likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 52.1° Newark: 30-Year: 52.4°; 15-Year: 53.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 55.1°

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.830 today. On March 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.798 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.757 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… A partly sunny morning will give way to a mainly cloudy afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Similar to slightly cooler readings are likely tomorrow and Tuesday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.7° Newark: 30-Year: 52.0°; 15-Year: 53.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7°

Parts of the area could see a shower or thundershower this evening or overnight as a cold front crosses the region. In the wake of the frontal passage, tomorrow will be partly sunny and cooler. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +19.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.529 today. On March 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.761 (RMM). The March 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.013 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Some showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 73° It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.4° Newark: 30-Year: 51.7°; 15-Year: 52.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3°

With abundant sunshine, the temperature soared to near record and record levels in parts of the region. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy but still mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Showers and possible thundershowers are possible as a cold front moves across the region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.429 today. On March 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.013 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.866 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s and perhaps middle 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 51.0° Newark: 30-Year: 51.3°; 15-Year: 52.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 54.0°

The sun will return tomorrow and temperatures will surge across the region. The mercury will likely soar to 70° or above in a large part of the northern Middle Atlantic region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +13.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.724 today. On March 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.867 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.690 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy and cooler with some periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will be much warmer. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.7° Newark: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.0°; 15-Year: 53.6°

Temperatures again soared well into the 60s in much of the region. However, a storm passing to the south will dent the warmth tomorrow. There will likely be some periods of rain with temperatures being held back in the 50s. The proverbial rubber band will snap on Friday as the sun returns. The mercury will likely soar to 70° or above in a large part of the northern Middle Atlantic region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° For now, the extended range ensembles, including the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 show warm anomalies for the closing 10 days of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +10.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.136 today. On March 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.702 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.937 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Philadelphia could reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler with some rain. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.4° Newark: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.6°; 15-Year: 53.2°