donsutherland1

Yes, it's shifting westward. The heat will probably be more prolonged in the western half of the CONUS than the eastern half.

With some of the guidance hinting at the development of a 600 dm heat dome in the vicinity of the Rockies, there is already a strong heat signal showing up east of the Rockies. That area of heat will likely shift westward the following week. As the heat shifts westward, places like Denver could approach or reach 100° on one or more days. Parts of Kansas and Oklahoma could see numerous days with highs of 100° or above. Phoenix could see another stretch of 110°+ heat with a possible 115° high. The Northeast, especially New England, could turn cooler than normal for a time.

Yesterday saw some record high minimum temperatures in the New York City area: Bridgeport: 77° (tied record set in 1968) Islip: 79° (old record: 75°, 1969, 2010, 2013, and 2021)

The second rainfall was due to a slow-moving Hurricane that made landfall in North Carolina.

I was informed that there are I.T. issues. They are being worked on.

Today was the fifth day this year that Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all hit 90° or above. That is the most such occurrences in a year since 2022 when there were 7 such days. The record is 13 days in 2010.

Central Park reached 90° this evening, so 2025 remains tied with 2006 and 2016 for the most days on which temperatures at Bridgeport, Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark reached 90° or above and Central Park did not. All such days have occurred since 2000.

You’re welcome. There’s still a chance that it reaches or reached 90 between hours. We’ll know by around 8 pm.

After clouds broke, it turned hot across the region. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 90° Islip: 90° New York City-Central Park: 89° New York City-JFK Airport: 92° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 93° Newark: 95° If today's high of 89° hold at Central Park, today would become the third day this year where all of the above locations except for Central Park reached 90°. That would break the record of two such days that was set in 2006 and tied in 2016. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler and a warm and mainly dry weekend will follow. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning as a front moves across the region. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential. Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance shows a brief surge of high heat late next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +5.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.111 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).

94° at Newark, 91° at JFK, and 90° at LGA.

It's 6th if one goes back before 1943. I'm not sure why all of the hourly NCEI data hasn't been incorporated into the digital database.

The July 14 reading was revised up to 16.86°C. The preliminary July 15 temperature was 16.86°C (second warmest for the date on the ERA5 dataset).

Even as the New York City region continues to suffer in a steam bath, Bismarck saw the temperature fall to 40° this morning. That broke the daily record of 42° from 1984. It is also the coldest July reading there since July 27, 2013 when the mercury dipped to 39°. Next week could see a brief push of cooler air that could send the mercury into the middle or upper 60s in New York City coupled with low humidity and refreshing daytime temperatures. In 2013, a cool stretch followed Bismarck's low of July 27 a few days later. Unlike 2013 when there were reinforcing cool shots, that does not yet appear to be the case for this year.

Some of the remnant showers from last night's thunderstorms in Pennsylvania have now moved into southern Westchester County.

What are the trends for the last 30 years?

Parts of the region will experience a shower or thundershower this evening and tonight. The heat will peak tomorrow with highs topping out in the lower 90s across much of the region. Friday will be somewhat cooler and a warm and mainly dry weekend will follow. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +11.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.121 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).

Thanks. That's still subsequent to your starting point. So, it appears that one is, in fact, dealing with a changing sample mix, which makes it tougher to discern the actual trend.

Doesn't Atglen only go back to 2019? If your sample mix is changing over time, how do you know what seems to be a trend isn't, in fact, an artifact of the changing sample?

There is a paper that now explains the synoptic events that drove the record heat, including Phoenix's record 31 consecutive days of 110° or above heat, in the Southwest (U.S. and Mexico) during 2023. In short, the combination of an abnormally warm Atlantic Ocean (dominant factor) and rising El Niño created a semi-permanent heat ridge. The paper explained: It was found that a large-scale, semi-persistent atmospheric blocking pattern was anchored over the region for most of the summer, a feature that enhanced incoming solar radiation, thermal heating, and sensible heating, deep subsidence, while reducing precipitation, thus increasing surface temperatures. The atypical features of this extreme event suggested that there were slow-varying large-scale forcings at play, potentially promoting its occurrence. It was shown that the homogeneous interbasin warm SSTs from the record warm Atlantic Ocean and a growing El Niño event in the Pacific modulated large-scale atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes thus promoted a semi-permanent anticyclonic blocking pattern, significantly increasing surface heating, which led to the growth and persistence of the heatwave. The paper can be found here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61859-y

Overall, July 1-14, 2025 ranks 4th warmest. I suspect that July 2025 will finish third.

With the preliminary value for July 14th now in, July 2025 has now seen its first record warm global mean temperature of July. That this follows a La Niña winter and coincides with persistent neutral ENSO conditions is quite remarkable.

Is that for stations that haven't changed e.g., location, etc.?

There are too many missing summer days in a number of recent years, some of which had large numbers of 90° or above days in the region.

Last year, a similar issue arose regarding 95° or above days at Phoenixville. It's pre-1950 data is unreliable. For the 95° or above highs, I ran regression equations based on the 1950-1980 period testing West Chester and Phoenixville and West Chester and Coatesville. The West Chester - Phoenixville equation broke down badly when applied to the 1930-1949 period, ballooning from 2.8 days to 12.4 days. The West Chester - Coatesville equation held reasonably consistent. This disparity suggested that the issue concerned Phoenixville, not West Chester. To determine whether the 1950-1980 period was an issue, I also tested that equation for 1981-2015 for West Chester - Phoenixville. The equation held up reasonably well. The Coatesville data record ended in 1982, so I could not test the West Chester - Coatesville relationship. The equations for the 1930-1949 and 1950-80 periods strongly argued that Phoenixville's 1930-1949 measurements were at issue and are not reliable. That also includes the currently recognized state maximum temperature record of 111° that was set at Phoenixville. The more likely value is probably near 105° based on the 1950-1980 relationship. I now repeated the exercise for 90° or above highs at Phoenixville. I expected that just as had been the case with 95° or above highs, the 1930-1949 period would see vastly more 90° or above highs than predicted while the 1981-2015 period would not be too different from what was predicted. The outcome: The 1930-1949 Phoenixville data is wildly out of line with both the rest of its historical record and the West Chester data that it is unusable in its raw form for any credible analyses.

Following yesterday's deluge, today was a much drier day. Some showers or thundershowers could return to the region tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through into the middle and upper 80s. The heat will likely peak on Thursday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +2.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.295 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).