donsutherland1

As Martz often does, he builds plausible-sounding strawmen to evade the points that had been made. Zeff wrote: Nuance is important: Zeff is referring to extreme rainfall events, increased likelihood of dangerous flooding, and explaining the basic physics (Clausius-Clapeyron equation) where a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture (about 7% for every 1°C increase in temperature). Now, look carefully at Martz's summary paragraph aimed at debunking Zeff: I am a recent college graduate with a degree in meteorology. Zeff was replying to my post on social media, pointing out that he, and other climate activists, were ignoring basic scientific facts when they blamed man-made climate change for the tragic flooding in Texas. The truth is that the rainfall and flooding along the Guadalupe River were not historically unprecedented and had little, if anything, to do with climate change. Neither heavy rainfall nor river flooding has increased in the Texas Hill Country over the last six decades. Notice how Martz subtly shifts the goal posts: He shifts the parameters to "historically unprecedented" rainfall and flooding. There is a difference between extreme (let's say top 1% of events) events and unprecedented ones. Notice also that Martz failed to try to shoot down the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. He couldn't. So, the test concerns whether extreme rainfall amounts are increasing. For purposes of extreme events, I used the top 1% of events for the first-order stations for NWS San Antonio. Such stations have long periods of record. Their data is high quality. I used the 1951-1980 base period for the start of the comparison, because that is the NASA-GISS reference period. I used the most recent 30 years (1996-2025). The average rainfall for extreme (top 1%) of rainfall events is, in fact, increasing. 2-day periods were non overlapping. Thus, if January 1-2 and January 2-3 both appeared, the event with the lower 2-day amount was dropped, as a single event was involved. Increases were also present for the shorter 1950-1959 and 2016-2025 ten-year periods. It's better statistical practice to use 30-year periods. Now, notice further what Martz did: 1. He relied on EPA flood data that only goes to 2015. The data is obsolete for purposes of measuring a significant portion of the last 30-years, much less the last decade. Moreover, because it starts in 1965, it misses the timeframe to which Zeff had referred. 2. His rainfall chart concerned highest daily rainfall on an annual basis. But the flaws were as follows: a) he never listed the stations (key to reproducibility); b) he was measuring the top daily rainfall for a given year, which is bad methodology for measuring extreme events. Extreme events are not equally distributed. Some years contain clusters of them (e.g., 9 top 1% events for 1951-1980 for Del Rio occurred during 1969 while 1955 saw none; the Martz methodology would give equal weight to 1955 and 1969). Other years have none. Moreover, such events are not neatly limited to the daily period. They can occur over overlapping dates; c) his chart does not explain whether he took averages for the 21 COOP stations or used the highest value for the whole set. Given that extreme events can be local and discrete, averaging is bad methodology. Because the data for floods is dated, I make no assessment on that matter. Finally, Martz makes a claim about "Texas Hill country." In fact, Kerr County that saw the extreme flood (2nd highest crest on the Guadalupe River) has no stations with rainfall data in the 1950s and 2010-present. A few stations have data in the 1940s. The Kerrville station only goes back to 1974. Conclusion: 1. Martz did not debunk Zeff's observations 2. Martz did not provide data in a reproducible and transparent fashion 3. Martz used bad methodology for assessing extreme rainfall events 4. Martz made claims about a location for which data is sparse and cannot be used to assess Zeff's observations 5. Not specifically provided here, numerous attribution studies concerning excessive precipitation events have found linkages to climate change, consistent with what one would expect given the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. In the end, Martz's op-ed may win him points at the CFACT interest group where he works outside of the meteorology profession, but it wouldn't stand up to scientific rigor given the flaws related to transparency, reproducibility, and methodology.

Today was another very warm day. Highs included: Bridgeport: 88° Islip: 88° New York City-Central Park: 90° New York City-JFK Airport: 88° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92° Newark: 97° Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible through tomorrow. No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +2.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.289 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal).

With respect to summer highs (lowest at Central Park vs. JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark) and Newark (highest at Newark vs. Central Park, JFK, and LaGuardia), there has been a massive change at Central Park and a remarkably stable relationship at Newark. The dramatic change in relationship relative to the surrounding area suggests that Central Park has the much larger issue than Newark. This does not mean that Newark doesn't run slightly hot, but changes there have not altered its relationship to the overall region. Central Park: Newark: Temperature averages are adjusted through various quality control mechanisms, so the long-term climate record filters out such problems. The problems exist only when it comes to daily temperatures or extreme temperatures, which are taken from raw unadjusted values. Based on the pre-2000 regression equation, the most recent heatwave would have had a peak temperature of 102° at Central Park setting a new June mark. The actual figure of 99° will wind up being the month's extreme temperature in the climate record. The June monthly mean temperature will be subject to modest adjustment at some point for the long-term climate record. My guess is that there is a conscious choice to maintain things as they are, even as the raw numbers (particularly during full foliage season) have noted issues. Maintaining a long climate record is worth the trade-off among the key stakeholders, especially as the long-term numbers can be fixed to account for biases, etc.

Today's preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 93°. if it holds, which is likely according to the guidance, that would tie the daily record set in 2021. Such exceptionally warm nights have exploded in number in recent years due to the combination of anthropogenic climate change and an escalating Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect. In the past, Phoenix's nights offered residents precious refuge from the day's heat. After long, scorching days under a relentless sun, the darkness would bring a faint coolness creeping back across the "Valley of the Sun." Then in 1989, something extraordinary and unsettling happened. On July 20, the thermometer refused to drop below 93°. At the time, this was a rare anomaly, a single mark in the long record of desert nights that goes back to August 1895. Throughout the 1990s, this eerie event remained nearly alone. Even as the City rapidly grew, there was just one other such night. Phoenix's residents could still count on most summer nights dipping into the 80s or sometimes the 70s, enough to sleep, to breathe, to recover. But there was a dramatic shift toward hotter nights as the 21st Century commenced, particularly when the 30-year moving average summer temperature broke through 92.5°. During 2000-09, there were 14 such lows. The following decade was even worse, with 19 such lows during 2010-19. Then, there was a "breakout" from Phoenix's record book during the 2020s. Since 2020, amidst a sputtering Monsoon, there have been 46 such lows (today would be #47). That's more than for all of the period of record prior to 2020. Moreover, the last year without a 93° or above low was 2016. Phoenix's 93° or Above Low Temperatures: Phoenix's Mean Summer Low Temperatures and Trend (1980-2024):

1.09" of rain in 16 minutes so far.

Yes, today was Newark’s fourth such day this year.

Today was the hottest day of the month, so far. Highs included: Bridgeport: 94° Islip: 92° New York City-Central Park: 93° New York City-JFK Airport: 93° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98° Newark: 100° Today was also the fourth time this year that all seven locations record highs of 90° or above. Parts of the region could experience a strong thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or heavy downpours. Tomorrow will turn somewhat cooler. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 80s. Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. A thunderstorm is possible through at least Thursday. No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +3.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.234 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal).

Foliage affects recent temperatures (late 1990s to present). More is involved for the "100s drought" in late July, including but not limited to stochastic variability.

JFK Airport has reached 90° for the ninth time this year. Only 2010 with 13 days through July 8th had more such days by this time of year.

JFK and Central Park had no 100° readings during that timeframe.

Perhaps it has a small impact. The coefficient of determination was very low (0.026).

Frequency of measurable rainfall at New York City (Central Park). Note: The darker bars are days on which 5% or more of the years saw 1.00" or more daily rainfall. Years with 1.00" or More Rainfall at Central Park on July 8: 1870: 1.00" 1883: 1.01" 1899: 1.80" 1964: 1.05" 1987: 1.10" 2005: 1.46" 2021: 2.27" (Daily Record) July 8 Daily Rainfall Records: Bridgeport: 1.73", 2005 Islip: 1.42", 2005 New York City-Central Park: 2.27", 2021 New York City-JFK Airport: 1.30", 2005 New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.24", 1987 Newark: 1.61", 1899 White Plains: 1.46", 2005 2005 had the highest combined total for the three New York City sites (JFK, LGA, NYC) at 3.93". 2021 was second at 3.54". 2005 also had the highest combined total for the seven New York City Area sites with 9.71".

Through July 7, Bridgeport, Islip, JFK Airport, and White Plains are in the top 3 for the number of 70° or above lows to date. Bridgeport: 8 days (tied second with 1974 and 1999) Islip: 9 days (tied third with 2002) JFK Airport: 12 days (third) White Plains: 7 days (third) The combined figure of 36 days also ranks as the third highest. Eight of the ten highest figures through July 7 have occurred since 2000, including three since 2020 (2021, 2024, and 2025).

In my view, the climate change apocalypse has already arrived. By “apocalypse,” I mean a profound transformation rather than total destruction, while acknowledging that at some point of warming, total destruction would become a viable scenario. The evidence is unmistakable to any objective observer: more frequent and extreme heatwaves, intensified precipitation events, accelerating aridification in the Desert Southwest and parts of Europe, and vast marine heatwaves disrupting ocean ecosystems. Scientists have laid out these findings clearly, coherently, and convincingly. Science has not failed us. Instead, it is many of our leaders, both political and corporate, who have failed. Entrenched in a status quo from which they profit, they are prisoners of tunnel vision, unable or unwilling to see the full picture. They lack the courage to enact the changes needed to prevent this transformation from worsening. Instead, they display staggering creativity in inventing excuses for inaction. They pour vast energy into preserving an unsustainable and increasingly destructive system. They claim that a world that does not burn fossil fuels is impossible. Yet history proves otherwise. Society has achieved far greater transformations within even tighter timelines. It harnessed atomic energy in a desperate race against the Nazis, sent humans to the Moon in less than a decade, and largely phased out CFCs to save the ozone layer in the 1990s. Society could have undertaken a similar transition away from fossil fuels. Moreover, the level of difficulty was less than that for atomic energy or the Apollo Project. This time, society had decades rather than years to act. Ultimately, society chose another path, not because a transition was impossible, but because too many of its leaders lacked the courage to break free from the familiar, comfortable status quo.

Tomorrow will be very warm with highs reaching the upper 80s to perhaps 90° in New York City and the lower and middle 90s in Newark. Wednesday through Friday will be turn cooler with increased clouds. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to near 80° through Friday. Each day could feature the risk of some heavy thunderstorms. The rainfall amount could be enhanced somewhat by some of the moisture from Chantals remnants. No widespread excessive heat appears likely through mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -4.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.160 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal).

87 degrees at Longwood Gardens.

I agree. It is disappointing that the situation at Central Park has been neglected. The data no longer reliably reflects summer conditions in Manhattan. No matter how the data is examined, one sees an unmistakable impact during the summer or full foliage months.

Another look at Central Park's summer temperature issue: During 1970-1995, there were 5.4 days per summer when Central Park's high temperature was 1° or more cooler than the cooler high at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport. During 1996-2024, that figure was 22.8 days. Since 2000, that figure has averaged 24.0 days. The change in those averages are even more dramatic for days when Central Park had a high temperature that was at least 2° cooler than the cooler high at JFK Airport or LaGuardia Airport: 1970-1995: 1.3 days per summer 1996-2024: 11.1 days per summer 2000-2024: 12.2 days per summer Not all of this change has to do with the trees, but most of it does. One has seen smaller changes in the same direction for January 1-March 31 (no foliage) and October 1-December 31 (low foliage). However, the summer (full foliage) change is biggest. Change in Days with Highs 1° or More Cooler than the Cooler High at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport: 1996-2024 vs. 1970-1995: January-March: +93%; June-August: +322%; October-December: +122% Change in Days with Highs 2° or More Cooler than the Cooler High at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport: 1996-2024 vs. 1970-1995: January-March: +59%; June-August: +754%; October-December: +135%

Tomorrow will be warm with highs reaching the middle 80s across the New York City area. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +3.57 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.175 today.

2 consecutive days in 1948, not 3.

Yes. There was also August 26-28, 1948.

Yes. That's correct. I misspoke. I had checked whether 1917 was the longest streak and didn't check all the dates all of them occurred.

Yes. Those are the records for each location. The 1917 stretch is the only 4-day streak on record for Central Park.

Today was another very warm day. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 90° Islip: 90° New York City-Central Park: 88° New York City-JFK Airport: 89° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92° Newark: 94° Today was the third day this year that Bridgeport and Islip hit 90° or above while Central Park did not. That breaks the record of two such days that was set in 2006. Parts of the region will experience a strong thunderstorm this evening. Afterward, generally warm weather will prevail through Saturday with readings mainly in the middle 80s. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +13.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.923 today.

JFK: 3; LGA and NYC: 4; EWR: 6.