donsutherland1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 2.4

I ran the numbers for June 24 using both regression equations: Pre-2000: 101.9; 2000-Present: 99.5; there's little doubt that absent the dense tree cover that was largely not present prior to 2000, Central Park would have surpassed 100° on June 24. Below are the predicted vs. actual highs for Central Park during June 22-25, 2025.

I reran the numbers, as the final data showed highs of 91 at ISP, 92 at JFK, 91 at LGA, and 95 at EWR to go with NYC's 89.

Today, Newark topped out at 95°. Central Park hit 89°. Prior to 2000, Central Park failed to reach 90° or above on just 0.4% of the days that Newark hit 95° or above. Since 2000, that figure has increased nearly 16-fold to 5.5%. For June, I constructed regression equations for the pre-2000 and 2000-present periods. The independent variables were ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR. The dependent variable was NYC. Based on today's 91, 92, 91, and 95 highs at ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR, the pre-2000 equation suggested a high of 93.28 at Central Park (95% CIE: 90.5-96.0). The 2000-present equation suggested a high of 90.52 at Central Park (95% (CIE: 88.9-92.1). The difference in the estimates suggests that Central Park's highs are nearly 2.8° cooler relative to surrounding locations in the 2000-2024 period. The coefficients of determination were 0.86 and 0.95 respectively. Given the high coefficients of determination for both cases, one can have strong confidence that today's highs are notably cooler relative to those at surrounding sites than they would have been prior to 2000, especially as the predicted 2000-2024 high falls outside the 95% confidence interval for the pre-2000 period.

The temperature soared into the lower 90s in many parts of the area today. Today was also the second time this year and 18th time overall that Central Park did not reach 90° or above when Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark reached 90° or above. 17/18 (94%) of those dates have occurred since 2000 and 12/18 (67%) have occurred since 2010. Prior to 2000, 0.6% of days with 90° or above highs at Islip, JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark did not reach 90° in Central Park. Since 2000, 10.1% of such days saw a high below 90° at Central Park while 10.6% had no high of 90° at Central Park since 2010. Very warm weather will prevail through mid week. New York City will see highs in the upper 80s. Newark will likely be near or just above 90° on each day during this period. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. Both the 0zz GFS and ECMWF show potential for more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +2.81 on Friday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.405 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

This is what I get using the calendar year for Central Park:

I also compiled the benchmark record high minimum temperatures since 2025 set one, as well during the recent heatwave.

Record is 42.6C/109F on July 25, 2019.

It will turn even warmer tomorrow. Tomorrow and Monday will likely see temperature reach the middle and perhaps upper 80s in New York City. Tuesday could top out near 90°. Newark could be near or just above 90° on each day during this peirod. In addition, there will be a risk of a shower or thundershower during the weekend. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF show potential for more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +2.81 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.124 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

Here's the data for 100° days: Here's the distribution of 90°+ days, 100°+ days, and daily record highs:

Yes. That's correct about 1925.

While parts of the area await the sun's breaking through the clouds, here's a distribution of high temperatures based on New York City's climate record when the low temperature was 63°. The NBM forecast range is in red and the forecast value is dark brown.

It’s a density plot based on the frequency of high-low temperatures based on the chart @TheClimateChangerposted. I highlighted this year’s first recorded high-low combinations.

The June 24, 2025 weathergami was actually the third this year: Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark also had weathergamis on June 24th. JFK Airport and Newark also had weathergamis on June 25th. The last time Central Park had two consecutive days with weathergamis was July 22-23, 2011. Its most consecutive is 3 which occurred during the extreme cold shot of December 29-31, 1917.

The recent historic June heatwave was also the first time June had seen Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark register 80° or above minimum temperatures on the same date.

Yesterday, New York City (Central Park) had a low of 62° while White Plains had a low of 63°. That was the first time since May 28th that New York City had a lower minimum temperature than White Plains and just the fourth time this year that has happened.

That would fit the historic and 1991-2020 climate data. The ECMWF weeklies are also quite warm.

JFK Airport and Newark saw their lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low. JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019) Newark: 72° (old record: 76°, July 23, 2019) Temperatures will return to the lower 80s for tomorrow and then middle and perhaps upper 80s for the remainder of June. Newark could be near or just above 90° on several days. In addition, there will be a risk of a shower or thundershower during the weekend. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.013 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

You can find it here.

The hottest July 4 cases tended to occur during hotter summers, overall. Summer (June 1-August 31) Mean Temperatures for Central Park: 10 Hottest July 4 Cases: 75.3° 10 Coolest July 4 Cases: 73.1° All Other Years: 74.1° Overall, though, the relationship is weak (coefficient of determination: 0.105)

For reference:

In large part because ocean temperatures are still relatively cool at this time of year, New York City saw the lowest temperature 1 day and 2 days after a low of 81F (27.2C) or higher following a shift in the wind off the water. Records go back to 1869.

Yes.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool. The mercury could struggle to reach 70° in New York City. It should rise into the lower 70s at Newark. The chilly highs will challenge the record for lowest high temperatures two days after an 80° or above low at Central Park, JFK Airport, and Newark. The existing records are below: Central Park: 71°, July 9, 1883 JFK Airport: 76°, July 23, 2019 Newark: 76°, July 23, 2019 All of those readings followed lows of 80° two days earlier. Central Park has had 72 lows of 80° or above; Newark has had 50; and, JFK Airport has had 16. Temperatures will return mainly to the lower 80s for the remainder of June. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return in the near-term. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +12.65 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.073 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.1° (1.1° above normal).