donsutherland1

For New York City:

That’s if the summer has a neutral ENSO. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive in bringing La Niña for summer.

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal weather is getting underway. March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. As has often been the case in recent months, the most impressive warmth in absolute temperatures and relative to normal will likely occur north and west of New York City. New York City will likely finish the first week of the month with an anomaly near 10° above normal despite frequent wet weather. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +0.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.920 today.

An example of poor run-to-run continuity: Snowfall Forecasts

FYI, Tropical Tidbits now posts the ECMWF's AI forecasts. It's 3/15 map screams "Beware of the Ides of March!" It's posted here for purposes of illustration only.

Some of the seasonal records were demolished.

With shrinking areas of cold globally, it is little surprise that warmer months are becoming more frequent even on a local basis. Below are monthly global GISS anomalies (2000-2023) and New York City's anomalies using the GISS baseline:

Winter futility through March 1st. Winter 2023-2024 would rank 5th. Snowfall following winters with mean temperatures of 40.0° or above in New York City has been low for the remainder of snow season.

While New York City experienced its fourth warmest winter on record, numerous locations saw their warmest winter on record. Some of those locations are below:

Extent is 15th. Volume is below:

Despite a transient cold shot to end the month, February finished with a mean temperature of 40.1° (4.2° above normal) in New York City. That tied 1954 and 2020 for the 9th warmest February on record. Winter 2023-2024 finished with a mean temperature of 40.6° in New York City. That was New York City's fourth warmest winter on record. For the first time since records began in 1869, New York City had two consecutive winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Parts of the United States concluded their warmest winter on record. Records were set in such cities as Albany, Burlington, Fargo, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis. Fargo smashed its winter record from 2015-2016 by 4.4°. Minneapolis registered 18 days during which the high temperature reached 50° or above. The old record was 8 days in Winter 1980-1981. Tonight will be another chilly but not severely cold night. The chill will disappear during the afternoon as readings soar into the 40s in New York City and possibly 50° in Philadelphia. Afterward, March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +1.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.742 today.

2014-15. However, the small area of extreme cold was locked over the Northeast leading to a freezing of water bodies, including much of the Long Island Sound during a severely cold February.

FYI: The amount of frigid winter air is near a record low, and shrinking An analysis reveals this winter has had the second-smallest pool of cold air on record above the Northern Hemisphere, a clear sign of climate change. https://wapo.st/3Igzr59

NYC's coldest high this month was 36. That's the highest figure on record. The old record was 33. That record was set in 1997 and tied in 1998 and 2002. The lowest minimum temperature of 23 was the highest on record (old record: 22, 1927).

It’s a great site. It’s easy to use with a lot of information.

How often is extremeweatherwatch.com updated? There were dozens of monthly records set in North America during the last few days, including 15.7C at Ottawa yesterday.

Neutral ENSO winters can provide a range of extremes. Many factors are involved in shaping the winter outcomes.

The equipment is automated. No human measurements are needed. The trees aren't an issue during the winter. LaGuardia Airport had 40.0° or above averages for all three months.

January had a mean temperature of 41.4°. February had a mean temperature of 39.7°. Only 1998 (January: 40.0°; February: 40.6°) and 2023 (January: 43.5°; February: 41.1°) saw both January and February wind up with mean temperatures of 40.0° or above. No winter has seen all three months have 40.0° or above mean temperatures in New York City. Winter 2001-2002 came closest: December: 44.1°; January: 39.9°; February: 40.6°.

Just four: 1990, 1998, 2002, 2023

2011-12 had no additional snowfall. However, yesterday's late evening temperature was enough to push NYC to a 40.6° winter mean temperature (0.1° above 2011-12). As a result, Winter 2023-24 now ranks worse than 2011-12. Winter 1918-19 finished with 3.8" of snow.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.5 4.8 4.5 5.5 1.8 0.9 -0.5 -2.0 0.2

A cold front will sweep across the region during the first half of tonight. The frontal passage will touch off some heavy showers, perhaps a thundershower, and strong winds. Afterward, the temperature will tumble through the 40s and into the 30s in New York City and 20s outside the City. Already, some large drops in temperature have occurred today. At Noon, it was 45° in Val d'Or, Quebec. The current temperature was -4°. At Noon, the temperature stood at 64° in Buffalo. The current temperature was 27°. At 5 pm, the temperature was 58° in Binghamton. The current temperature was 35°. As impressive as the arrival of the cold air will be, it will quickly depart. Temperatures will already be rebounding on the opening day of March. Afterward, March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +14.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.252 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.0° (4.1° above normal). Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.5°. That would tie Winter 2011-2012 as the fourth warmest winter on record. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six prior winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.