donsutherland1

Yes, most of the Philadelphia’s winter warming has occurred after winter 1984-85.

I used the latest normals. That makes almost everything appear cold. Here’s the same chart using the NOAA’s 20th century mean as the baseline.

Those really cold summers were 1903 and 1927. Both were very wet summers in a colder climate. Drier years followed and by the time a wetter cycle (internal variability and climate change-forced) returned, the climate had warmed quite a bit from where it was prior to 1930.

Here's how Philadelphia's winters look against the current (very warm) baseline normals:

Statistically, the back-to-back 102° highs at JFK during late June are a lot rarer.

Here it is with 1951-1980 (which is used by NASA GISS): The most recent summer that was cooler than the above baseline was summer 2017.

For those tracking the heat in the Pacific Northwest, Portland has now reached 100° or above for the second consecutive day. August 22-23, 2025 is the latest two-day or longer streak on record. The prior latest two-day streak of 100° or above occurred during August 19-20, 2016.

NOAA uses a 20th century (1901-2000) baseline for assessing anomalies for purposes of climate analysis. This is how NYC's summers look using the 20th century baseline: For purposes of "normals," the latest baseline period is 1991-2020. Here's how NYC's summers look using that baseline: The last summer cooler than the NOAA's long-term 20th century baseline was summer 2009. The last summer cooler than the 1991-2020 baseline was summer 2023. Summer 2025 will wind up warmer than both baselines.

Their goal, and that of other social media influencers, has nothing to do with honest discussion. It's solely about obfuscation. That's why they can only succeed in political circles, not scientific ones. Indeed, many of these influencers are viewed dismally in scientific circles. Their efforts are shoddy, filled with errors, and miss even basic points. I sometimes bring up some of them here, so that people are aware of what's going on. One example, not posted here, but on X: The basic error here that Martz (a social media influencer who is active in denying anthropogenic climate change and its impacts) makes is that he does not understand that probability measures the chance of an event occurring/not occurring. It does not directly measure model accuracy. Thus, he essentially endorses a post that asserts that a 5% probability of an event's occurrence means that he models were "wrong 95% of the time." This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what statistics measure and what they do not measure. Indeed, that fundamental error guides this inability to comprehend attribution science and its merit in explaining in statistical terms how much more likely and/or more intense an event was in the contemporary warmer climate. Unfortunately, many who are exposed to such content do not have the backgrounds or understanding to recognize that they are being misled.

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Monday before another push of cooler air moves in. Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +15.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.352 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (1.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

So far, the ECMWF is an outlier in terms of a return to extreme heat, but the period looks abnormally warm. We'll see what the 12z ECMWF shows. I agree with you about the changes in climate classifications. The warming is ongoing and fairly dramatic. At least one episode of extreme heat has become a fairly regular occurrence. The number of hot days has increased markedly.

Summer 2025 to date for Central Park:

For JFK, it is August 23rd (1991-2020 baseline).

Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (Central Park, JFK, LaGuardia), Newark, and White Plains had high temperatures that were within 3° of one another for the 4th consecutive day. The last time there were four consecutive days with such a narrow range was December 23-26, 2022.

Yes, that's correct. So far, at least seven sites in Oregon or Washington have reached 100 or above. Daily records have fallen at locations including Corvallis, Portland, and Vancouver (WA). Portland finished with a high of 102.

Winter 2013-14 was a neutral winter (cool ENSO that fell short of a La Niña).

A combination of factors: marine heatwaves, drying hot seasons (June-September), and background anthropogenic warming.

The temperature dipped to 58° in Central Park this morning, making today the third consecutive day with a low of 59° or below. The last time there were three consecutive such days in August occurred exactly 18 years ago during August 20-22, 2007. Meanwhile, in contrast to the deep trough responsible for the cool weather in the Northeast, there is a powerful heat dome that will bring near record and record heat to parts of the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Sunday. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +5.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.582 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

There seems to be a degree of reliance on persistence for much of the CONUS for winter into spring. The consistency is well above what typically occurs, so one can expect changes in future outlooks.

On a serious note, there is genuine longer-term risk that the City could pass the point of sustainability, particularly if ongoing aridification depletes its access to water.

Portland, OR appears to be headed for an extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) for the fifth year in a row. The City has been experiencing a rise in 90° and 95° days in its warming climate. 90° days are increasing by 1.45 days per decade. 95° days are increasing by 0.72 days per decade. Moreover, in Portland's warming climate, the 30-year mean June-September high temperature reached 78.0° in 2014. The frequency of extreme heat events has increased markedly to about once every 2.2 years (2014-2024). Prior to 2014, extreme heat events occurred once every 7.3 years.

Central Park has fallen into the 50s for the third time this month. The last August with three or more such days was August 2007 with six days. The three consecutive such days are the first such streak since August 20-22, 2007.

There are some conflicting signals. Years with early extreme heat June-early July often have a bout of heat in September. However, years with the kind of cool shots as is occurring at present during August 20-31 typically have lower monthly maximum temperatures in September. August 20-31 had one or more lows in the 50s: Mean September maximum temperature: 86.9 All other years: Mean September maximum temperature: 89.9.

The ECMWF weekly guidance shows almost coast-to-coast cool anomalies in the U.S. The Pacific Northwest and northwestern Canada would be much warmer than normal.

I have a cousin out there. She has indicated that the City has a lot to offer, including culture, history, and nature. However, she has increasingly complained about the rising heat.