frd
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Everything posted by frd
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GFS must have the highest verification scores for 360 snowfall forecasts. Bravo
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Wonder the impact of the SST profile in the Atlantic. It is much warmer. Blue wave noted that many inland runners, coastal huggers may be due to the shift in Atlantic SST anomalies. I mean really, everything is a hot mess these days.
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I agree. Taking a break from tracking. Nice day out. Taking our Greyhound for a walk. Of course looking forward to the GEFS and the EPS. I rather luck out being g too cold because it seems cold is the issue not precip.
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@psuhoffman This has to be a positive in my book.
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@poolz1
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I am with you CAPE but I feel this is one of the best overall winter long range threads on the web
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Optimism
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Are you including the EPO? I am just referring to the PNA, AO and PNA.
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Exactly, the EPS has been wrong many times, while the GEFS has won many forecasts over the Euro Op and the EPS . I say all options are on the table at this time moving forward. The GFS has been extremely erratic, no news there.
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@CAPE Paul has had the hottest hand so far in Pac recognition. .
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Sounds we need to score between the 17 th and the 23 rd. Have to admit though it would not surprise me for another model swing to better down the road.
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Teleconnections have been great for weeks on end, and we have zero snow to prove for it .
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Well this event is earlier than 2018 that delivered that crazy March. But, this is a Nina and who knows, and I bet the QBO has a role as well. But another dive below negative is days away. So guessing another deep dive in the AO may be in the cards. Still no sign of a split but a - NAM state seems probable in cycles. 5 or more days below zero in negative territory forecasted
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Ever since the Super Nino it has been a mess, and last year was the year of the West Pac hyper warm MJO cycle. Every year it is a negative driver, you pick , West Pac, IO record phase, etc. etc.
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According to one met is was suppose to be a game changer. Although many mets that I read say the time lag for that to hit our sensible weather takes us to Spring. Two sides there on that one. Looking for good news this morning and looking at the grass on my way to get some bagels . Will not be long to mowing season. My goodness I was ready just a week ago to move my snow blower to the front of the garage. Been in the back corner since 2016..
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If true, anyone whomever posts the stupid weeklies should be banned Have you noticed the continuous, almost laughable, repetitive predictable failure of the modeling when it forecast cold or a colder pattern, been happening more and more the last three years, maybe related to the whatever, all I know is modeling can not be trusted and the evolving base state is ruining everything it seems.
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Ah, but the weakening Nina, a game changer.
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Isotherm stated earlier for a major SSWE I think it was a full 5 days or more of a wind reversal. Looking at some data tonight it appears a secondary push below 0 will occur in about 5 days and from there it could be 5 to 7 days until the winds revert back to Westerly Also noticed here both the GEFS and the bias corrected CFSv2 have trended with a weaker vortex moving forward. Euro
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It is an improvement from now, but beyond that period you will see the concerns that psu mentioned.
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Wonder if when the block makes a subtle shift is when it marks a time period when we can score. 21 st or 22 nd. You can see though the general retraction also seeing a junior Beast of the East over Eastern Europe. Wonder in time what occurs to the extreme cold that looks to gather over the pole. .
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Yes Ocean Spray Jellied
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@Isotherm Tom does this mean anything , enough to sway you that the event, although not a 5 day reversal, still might be considered major. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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I wanted a large portion of stuffing, and cranberry sauce, but the one without the berries.
