frd

Pretty

Yes, we have gone to Easterlies twice so far . Two days ago, as psu stated, we were a a record negative for the date . Yesterday was close I believe by 1

Me like even if it is the CMC

As HM stated a while back, seems to be moving up in time now from the start 20 to 30 days.

Recovery questionable @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The GEFS 35-day shows the point of uncertainty (abrupt spread growth) in the 10 hPa evolution around Jan 25-30. Some members continue to recover the vortex toward average, while others decelerate or even go for another U reversal. I think this is a point to keep eyes on! 12:58 PM · Jan 16, 2021·Twitter Web App

@poolz1

Could be nice early Feb. even beyond as well

Add in some changes and BOOM for the Northern crew.

Latest 1/16/2021 NAM forecast looks to be holding up well.

Long range the PV making its way closer to NA

Now On Feb 1 st

Awesome toggle link to Really shows the changes later in the period https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/gfs_hf/vstar_tstar_100.html

OMG, slightly below normal cold in southern Canada.

Hot off the press, the 1/16/2021 GEFS lost all its members that supported a stronger vortex. Also noticed the extended duration of easterlies. Nice

Clustering supports that

Good , weaker vortex.

This goes along with the above post regarding the GFS NH polar vortex ellipse profile animation . Judah's animation matches the animation form stratobserve.com

Lastly, another huge change from what was forecasted the last 14 days . Movement towards Northern NA versus Siberia. This starts near hour 240 and speeding up from there. https://stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert

Another significant change in the long range , a rather broad vortex in a N S elongated fashion is predicted versus what was forecasted a few days ago as a solidified , more organized tighter vortex, mostly over Eurasia.

As psu used this image in a previous post, but wanted to point out this is an improvement from a couple days ago. Basically the - NAM states not deteriorating .

Tasty John Homenuk Recent EPS runs have trended stronger with Greenland blocking in the 5-10 day range again - now a 3 sigma event. There are also hints that a northern stream disturbance will be forced underneath it Days 7-10. If correct, would open door to a Mid Atlantic/Northeast winter storm. 3:14 PM · Jan 15, 2021·

You are going need a larger gravy ladle. Damn and some freshly ground black pepper.

Great point !

Yikes !!

And I stand firm that now you need a cooperative Pac to get a decent SECS in the Mid Atlantic. New England doesn't require that. You want a more severe snow storm? Then you need some NAO help to raise the bar.