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Exactly, the EPS has been wrong many times, while the GEFS has won many forecasts over the Euro Op and the EPS . I say all options are on the table at this time moving forward. The GFS has been extremely erratic, no news there.

@CAPE Paul has had the hottest hand so far in Pac recognition. .

Sounds we need to score between the 17 th and the 23 rd. Have to admit though it would not surprise me for another model swing to better down the road.

Teleconnections have been great for weeks on end, and we have zero snow to prove for it .

Well this event is earlier than 2018 that delivered that crazy March. But, this is a Nina and who knows, and I bet the QBO has a role as well. But another dive below negative is days away. So guessing another deep dive in the AO may be in the cards. Still no sign of a split but a - NAM state seems probable in cycles. 5 or more days below zero in negative territory forecasted

Ever since the Super Nino it has been a mess, and last year was the year of the West Pac hyper warm MJO cycle. Every year it is a negative driver, you pick , West Pac, IO record phase, etc. etc.

According to one met is was suppose to be a game changer. Although many mets that I read say the time lag for that to hit our sensible weather takes us to Spring. Two sides there on that one. Looking for good news this morning and looking at the grass on my way to get some bagels . Will not be long to mowing season. My goodness I was ready just a week ago to move my snow blower to the front of the garage. Been in the back corner since 2016..

If true, anyone whomever posts the stupid weeklies should be banned Have you noticed the continuous, almost laughable, repetitive predictable failure of the modeling when it forecast cold or a colder pattern, been happening more and more the last three years, maybe related to the whatever, all I know is modeling can not be trusted and the evolving base state is ruining everything it seems.

Ah, but the weakening Nina, a game changer.

Isotherm stated earlier for a major SSWE I think it was a full 5 days or more of a wind reversal. Looking at some data tonight it appears a secondary push below 0 will occur in about 5 days and from there it could be 5 to 7 days until the winds revert back to Westerly Also noticed here both the GEFS and the bias corrected CFSv2 have trended with a weaker vortex moving forward. Euro

It is an improvement from now, but beyond that period you will see the concerns that psu mentioned.

Wonder if when the block makes a subtle shift is when it marks a time period when we can score. 21 st or 22 nd. You can see though the general retraction also seeing a junior Beast of the East over Eastern Europe. Wonder in time what occurs to the extreme cold that looks to gather over the pole. .

Yes Ocean Spray Jellied

@Isotherm Tom does this mean anything , enough to sway you that the event, although not a 5 day reversal, still might be considered major. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

I wanted a large portion of stuffing, and cranberry sauce, but the one without the berries.

Again, no one can really be sure with these events, but as this animation shows, note how long the wait is for the cold after the official SSWE, and please be aware we are only looking at 1959-60 and 2005-06 in the animation loop. Others years however are relatively close.

Worth keeping track for any longer term implications, even though as Isotherm stated, this may not achieve Major SSWE criteria.

Or simply if the great pattern ends up being a week versus several weeks. As Isotherm stated, it sounds like the best opportunity is later this month, and then maybe March.

Require universal agreement for a snow threat these days and unless it's a 1996 type event would like that in the medium range. Simply can't put much faith in modeling these last few winters. An abundance of failures. However, still like the threat period ahead.

Appreciate your posts PSU , I imagine it is a double edged sword to a degree, we'll get our opportunity hopefully between the 16 th and 25 th.

psu talked about this. I would not weigh too much into the MJO forecasts at this time. The blue color indicates a - NAM state, ie. HL blocking, and as mentioned here before, there is a tendency that even if the AO goes positive later in the month it will once again go negative , normally there are several cycles to this event on a time a scale going out to almost 60 days. Also worth mentioning, the real impacts of the SSWE is not due to hit sensible weather for 20 to 30 days after the official wind reversal. So, the models may adjust to colder longer term if our area is favored for the Southern displacement of colder anomalies. If this occurs hopefully a baroclinic zone sets up near by and we can reap the benefits of increased probabilities of snow over rain. I guess the bottom line is don't over react to model data in the long range, and set expectations within rational levels.

This looks good

Going where ?