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@psuhoffman certainly an eye opener. This SST distribution interacting with the Nina is something new. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Recently inspired by @Climatologist49 SST tweet, here's the raw mean ERSSTv5 SST plotted for the North Pacific (off-equator). Nov 2020 is the warmest in the data set. Since 2014, we've been at/above 294.5 K (~70.4°F). Top-3 warmest are 2018, 2019 and 2020. 9:34 PM · Dec 6, 2020

Interesting look later in the month. Eventual outcomes uncertain, however, there is definitely pressure on the vortex and also a disconnect between the spv and the tpv. London & Southeast @TheSnowDreamer Another GFS run which turns up the heat in stratosphere and really stretches out PV not as impressive of 18z from last night, but that was something. Signs of a double pinch wave 2 action this is really what we want to see for a split. One such split we had in February 2018. 3:35 AM · Dec 7, 2020

I had not seen this. I imagine one's perception can alter what is really seen here. For the record I do not endorse the Euro. It has had various issues with its forecasts and various indices. Eric Fisher @ericfisher Some new Euro seasonal data off the presses. No big changes...still a strong La Nina look heading toward January and February 8:42 AM · Dec 6, 2020

Yep.... A window of opportunity, although short. looks to exist as you mention. Possibly even extended a couple of additional days. Afternoon EPS will be telling, looking for some consistency here. Your previous comments about the NAO domain and the Atlantic in general resonate some hope for us, versus a highly positive NAO state. Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 May not last as momentum falls in the coming days but -ve AAM (E'ly) anoms have popped up at 50N as highlighted by the green 'blob' - the troposphere is seriously not in the mood for producing W'lies/a zonal mid-latitude pattern at the moment & the sPV is getting knocked about... 3:31 AM · Dec 5, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

I would imagine changes in the East Coast and locally, versus changes over the entire Conus to a degree, and including a warmer forecast for Canada lends supports for warmer near the 20th. However, I could be wrong. Modeling has been poor. I read maybe some issues might be related to less air travel/reduced data for forecast platforms. Whether that is true, I am not sure.

Thought I read here the CanSIPS latest release was a good one for cold in the East during December ? Remarkable changes once again. I imagine the next weather outcome reverse psychology flip would be a late month change to harsh cold and deep snow. I will be keeping a close watch on the AO for later in the month and the flip back, later in time hopefully, to more West Coast ridging. Not sure what to make of the Ventrice post about ocean and atmospheric increased Nina coupling as we head deeper into December. Many players to watch and the biggest drivers may end up being a combination of a few.

Nearing the 20th, right on cue to warmer.

Loving the trends on the - AO moving forward

NH Cold growing more expansive as we get to December 10th

Thanks, with wave breaking and some comments from Paul Rodney I believe about an eventual block forming in the NAO domain certainly something to keep an eye on.

Does the block increase opportunities for clippers and East Coast cyclogenesis at lower latitudes versus 2015 ? Thanks

Current Canadian 10- Day Mean forecast. Imagine this will be changing soon.

As we move closer to mid December a little clarity on developments regarding the Aleutian High.

Wonder if this time period between the 16 th and the 20th delivers a Northern stream disturbance. Some indications of upstream blocking which may work in favor regarding our latitude. Speculation only of course, some signs of Greanland blocking, maybe spur East coast cyclogenesis, or Clipper potential. Keep in mind also Griteaters post. There appears to be some roll forward/analog support.

Besides the holiday period warm up of recent years the multi-year lack of BM storms and the propensity of inland runners and cutters look as a risk to possibly continue this month. Hopefully we get a opportunity to score during mid month. One nasty cold outbreak being forecast mid-month as you mentioned. Maybe a Manitoba Mauler would be nice .

Cross-polar flow in the long range ! Awesome look ! Natural gas futures in play.

Pretty remarkable to see this forecast, of course have to see it become reality for weather outcomes, however, the trends grow stronger for a weakening vortex and a eventual improving NAM state. Increasing odds of blocking as well.

- EPO / perturb the PV / NEW EPS = Yeah baby !

Interesting

Wonder the implications further down the road, if and when, the pv weakens ? I would speculate good for cold and snow if we weaken the PV as this would improve the odds of favorable NAM state. Really liked the long range zonal wind forecast from the Euro yesterday. I believe Isotherm has Jan. in mind for a better cold and snow outcome. The evolution from mid December on will indeed be very interesting. As we read the period around mid December is key to observing effects from wave 1 event and maybe a further weakening of the PV. You can't help but feel a bit better about the odds of snow and cold here eventually .

Wave 1 configuration coming up Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Replying to @antmasiello Guidance in the extended range is rapidly intensifying the Aleutian High in stratosphere/wave 1 configuration. 2:43 PM · Nov 30, 2020

Yes, based on MJO movement and other signals. You can be skeptical, however, it would seem the evolution of the pattern to warmer near the 20th is logical. This is a long-range discussion and the period near the 20 th is weirdly associated with a turn to milder in the East.

This is so true i....t was mentioned early in the season the importance of the cryosphere The latest 10-day mean temperature from the Canadian ensemble shows most of Canada is above normal. Granted it's cold for Canada but not cold nearly cold enough for us as you mentioned. Hopefully at some point during the winter Canada can be loaded with extreme cold which coincides with a - EPO discharge. Also hoping any future - NAO occurs as well after a Eastern Canada cold period.

As mentioned above, the change to warmer at Christmas and beyond is rather clear. Just like clockwork again. It is remarkable the change to warmer in the East near the winter solstice.