frd

The ensembles are only as good as the operational they are based on. They can’t help if the core model is wrong. Their usefulness is in telling us of the operational had a fluke run and went off on a tangent due to some discreet error even by its own physics. They offer a scope of variability within the physics of that model. But if the model is wrong about something due to a core bias that flaw will infect the ensembles also. All the ensembles agreeing with the op said was that the op wasn’t a fluke within its own physics parameters. But ensembles don’t ensure the models physical representations are sound. You need to compare to other guidance to determine and guess at that. The past few winters it appears all the various model ensembles have had major set backs. Statistically speaking I can not prove it, but one could perceive the overall accuracy has declined. If anything, achieving phasing in a favorable thermal environment is a losing battle the last three years. Very frustrating for sure.

The story of our winter.

It is simply incredible when you look at the GFS and this morning's European even the GFS ensembles and the huge differences at 120 hours between them. Sometimes folks will mention to GFS has been consistent for 3 days in a row but even that means little. consistency does not necessarily mean accuracy eventually the GFS flipped and went to the European solution I believe this was a few years ago

Exactly .. some brief wording from the latest Mount Holly AFD. This isn`t a classic coastal low as it will be quickly progressing further off shore once it is east of us, so this doesn`t appear to be a system that will produce blockbuster amounts of snow. That being said, and with the consideration of how much uncertainty there remains with precip type, it will likely be Saturday afternoon before we will have enough confidence for a snow/ice/rain amount forecast that covers the entire event.

No representation of CAD here. Look at that boundary going West to East over long distances, a bit strange . We need a press of colder air. A while back I believe this was forecasted way colder. I think

Yep, related to lower dews as mentioned by @MillvilleWx and the colder thermal profiles you posted about. We live in a tough area. I have all my hopes set aside for later next week.

Mount Holly Meh

Latest

The 0z GFS op would be historic for parts of NC and that is why I believe the outcome will not verify. Eric Web mentioned it has been over 40 years since Fayetteville has seen a storm deliver 8 inches of more of snow. Been 65 years for a 12 inch event there. No one should write off the event near the 29 th yet.

DT going to have to update his SECS checklist. Basically no favorable tele , indices, or pattern will support "significant" snow any longer in our area. We have gone beyond bad luck. This storm if rain will be the fourth time the rug has been pulled. And, if the colder scenario storm on the 28 or 29 th does not deliver that's it for me. The 6z run is a sad site.

It has weakened and looks to remain so. This next attempt may simply help achieve another round of -AO and hopefully a - NAM state extension or another cycle of it during the month of February.

Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit.

Another hit

I know about suppression but of all the models the GFS showing this concerns me the least.

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March, I am intrigued if we can maintain the - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. Here is mid Feb

@psuhoffman Even going into early Feb , not bad. You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3 rd. Here we are at the 5 th,

Looking further into Feb. hopefully the retraction delivers by early Feb, then we may go the other way with a Pac extension.

I would think a few days after this could be the event of the - AO cycle

Best of the season so far I believe.

I wish this was tomorrow

DAMN !!!!!!!!!!

Well this is surprising

Some changes

I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm

Trusting the GFS and its ensembles means that you are certain is has Canada all figured out...... NOT