frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Appears we lost the follow up threats, as blocking is diminishing. I am OK with Spring arriving.
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Bingo. This makes 22 out of 24 failure model depictions for my area the last 7 years. Go with multi year consensus it is not going to snow above minor levels and you be correct most times. Also, models IMHO get too much credit. I guess for weenies it's a hard pill to swallow.
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Yes, ENE trajectory, a good sign.
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I would love that, and the cold temps as well. Maybe with omega threes and CoQ10 I can last until we get the next 12 inch snowfall here.
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Amazing how steadfast the seasonal trend and snowfall distribution has been to date. How we get there might vary in each snowfall , weak low, fast Northern jet, overpowering PV, etc. I like to be hopeful, as you mentioned previously, maybe things improve enough by say 50 miles or more to get the higher totals shifted more NW during the next 48 hours. And, please not the other way.
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Ensembles did well. GFS gets some credit. Last night folks were cra cra WTF. I still like my chances here.
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GFS can score a win. It has happened before, believe or not.
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In all honesty models get too much credit for the belief they are going to verify at long range, and even mid range. If this falls apart will re-think time spent getting excited over snow events that never happen.
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JB is due for a stellar call. I recall the early 2000's when only he nailed a storm to come North, ( think he followed the Canadian model ) it did and caused massive snows in our area. The JB index is at a ATH.
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Could certainly see an ideal capture scenario tomorrow, or even Monday with a large region wide MECS with some areas HECS. It would be silly to think the GFS is correct, or any other model for that fact this far out. We all know we are dealing with big time potential, just need that match to time things correctly for snow lovers.
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Central and Eastern PA., yikes. @Lowershoresadness must be happy.
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With the dynamics and the set-up I would think the highest probabilty of a screw job would be SE, too just too far offshore. Almost reminds me in a way of the brutal cold preceeding the bomb cyclone of Feb 2018. Incredible snows just missed our area, but I believe there was a beach blizzard in lower De. I am not expert by any means, but this set up has a lot of energy potential and the severe - AO this weekend and HA event NAO phase reversal upcoming still excites me.
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Exactly, Northern stream is screwing us. Always a chance it will change again, as it is a very delicate and dynamic situation.
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Makes perfect sense, we are screwed. Gone are the days of cold powder storms. Yes, its cold but the snow is SE.
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At this rate OTS on the GFS. Northern jet been screwing the forum in a big way the further North you are. This is an ongoing issue. Again, don't get invested as this is a very delicate storm outcome. Ensembles have guided the op.
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No surprise, it's a repeating occurrence for a reason. New York forum might start to worry.
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GFS was first to show this potential issue. If it continues we revert back to Seasonal mean. Oh my
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Well @mitchnickis getting his wish. J/K Remarkable opposite of the more amped Ukmet solution. However, still way to early to worry among a miss to the East.
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Been 9 years here since I have seen a 12 inch snowstorm. I am happy with the Euro run. Of course, who knows, the storm might amp up, or might go East, don't take anything seriously until we get to early next week.
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I gladly take this and call it a winter. I might be dead the next time a foot of snow falls here. .
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Please not that, we had extensive tree damage here, and I am looking forward to my foot of snow.
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He has elevation. And for the record, not every MECS here has mixed. I recall several that stayed all snow.
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I don't. thermals , hopefully the R/S does not come into play. Still feel this will be a cold smoke storm.
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What happened to the positive Euro weeklies going into the third week of March ?
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GFS might be correct, that be shocking at this range.
