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Significant rain arrives later next week. You can see this progression East later next week. Might be a good time to apply pre-emergents as rain will create the barrier, hopefully though, not pouring rains as it will wash away the granules. However, still too early for nitrogen treatments as the grass needs to be growing, if not you riskfuture grass damage. Soil temps still cool. Great link insert your zip. https://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature Soil moisture is currently very low.

EPS and ensembles had 5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada. Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return.

Certainly no bowling ball pattern with cold and snow in the East, not sure where that came from because blocking went poof, as soon as it started. Beyond hour 360 there are signals for impressive warmth in the East while most of the country is cold and stormy. Will not be long for Atlantic feedback loop and the WAR returns. Offshore Atlantic SSTs continue warm.

Will be a very, very active severe season coming up in the weeks and months ahead. Start out West and move East with time.

All those whacko Control and Euro snow models are worth zip, in the last 8 years they only provide false hope, an injection of hopium, coke, LSD to the weather junkie, aka weenie. My weenie needs some visnowgra baby. give me, please......

Because its simply really, JB said so.

Time for spring landscaping. I'm ready to get going. You have a beautiful property. I love the fire pit area. Have fun .

The perfect mega - NAO in March 2018 resulted in schools closed multiple days here, had one morning with 12 degrees F and ground blizzard conditions. Snowed a couple times that March, it was March to remember. The lore of JB for sure. I loved that month. Since then March has been blah..... Believe there were three times since then in which we had a - NAO , one period with a severe - NAO that even Donald S. stated would produce big here, but like the last window it busted and nothing happened except cold. Boring. With the warming Pac, improving PDO in the years ahead, and the warming Atlantic maybe we improve in the snow department. sort of like a icecream sandwich and we are in the middle - white, cold and snow.

@CAPE Congrats your area scored as one of the coldest compared to average this past two months on the planet. You might need to use the zoom feature, but its there.

We will trend colder near early to mid March, but doubt its cold enough for snow in our region, except for maybe psu land. The core of the cold will reside in the NE part of the country. Not seeing the bowling bowl pattern across the Midwest, and the cold is easing out West, while the AO continues positive, there is no severe AO for mid month for cold air delivery. Also, by mid March the PNA goes negative.

Blocking is gone. Return to normal and the 50's. Might hit 60 next Tuesday.

HM also thought like you. He believed in a Northern Mid-Atlantic SECS to a MECS. Weather is fascinating.

You mean a snow hole or a Black Hole ?

Remarkable the amounts of snow in VA. Without question the Southern areas did well this winter. Despite a -5.25 SD AO our area did not get the worse of the recent cold, snowy winter weather, but nation-wide it was much more severe in Tenn. Valley, Plains, and the areas well South of us. The white out in VA. and other areas was crazy earlier this week. The depth of the arctic air mass via the severe AO was amazing in the Midwest, and in the Plains. The long range control model and other model snowfall ensembles as usual did a shit show with tons of snow over the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Seasonal tendency won out mostly. We are lucky we got what we did. Areas of Florida had more snow this season than Philly. That was on the local ABC network news last night.

This is funny.

Where have I heard that before. Bring on spring and the sun, my vitamin D levels are low.

You must have made a pack with the Devil. That's the only way it will snow.

GFS with a more robust - EPO signal, Euro not as much, Euro AI even less.

Your spot was gold this year, mine was tin.

Define lowlands. Because here I am below climo. @CAPE did much better than me to my far SSW. Seasonal trend/outcomes sucked here.

Winter storm longe range and medium range forecasting is humbling for the pros and mets. Even HM thought this was a go. I am glad I learned from previous disappointments not to get too invested or believe modeling 100%. Also, consensus does not equate to final outcome. Happy to have had a couple winter advisory events.

Seems winter is the hardest season for model accuracy. Is that correct?

How much time do we have left for a significant change to more robust storm solution?

29.16 Baro here , wow ! Clearing line moving East, taking the dog for a walk soon before the 60 mph winds arrive. Mount Holly states highest wind potential here between 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM this evening. However, winds can gust to 50 m.p.h. until 6:00 PM tomorrow.

Appears we lost the follow up threats, as blocking is diminishing. I am OK with Spring arriving.