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I have not seen this in a while for early October in Alaska , crazy stuff all around , low sea ice and a lack of snow cover in that region .

I have seen some on the web mention Michael and the Opal 1995 redux , but that was Nina not Nino . Then I hear the progression from early Oct warmth to cooler just like in 2002. Certainly seems like things are changing on many fronts now, but what the final outcome is is for the upcoming winter is still hard to determine.

Interesting flip coming up similiar to 2002 to a degree. Also, an Opal redux aka 1995 :-) disclaimer : nothing implied here just mentioning

No surprises here but ........ wonder about the future here: Persist or switch - This is like the Holy Grail........................ A met who can devise a way to predict the average Winter state would be a golden On a side note, a lot of changes coming up with the SSTs in this region, but the real driver is still not known, at least not enough to make an accurate long term forecast

Maybe the cold front coming late week ,plus the tropical system changes all that . Plus, we are due again for flooding .

Blizzard warnings at the beach 2 out of the the last 4 winters beating the inland areas I believe . Incredible really, and very surreal images there. Your photos I still recall in my mind .

Well, two things for certain .............................March is the new December, and Dewey Beach is the new Boston :-)

Did you see the latest Euro seasonal , looks sweet. I think that is three months in a row and last year in it's October release it did rather well with it's seasonal forecast per Ed Valle .

The Euro Winter forecasts continues it's positive streak to three months with the latest release : YES Please :-)

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/ I thought the many years form 1992 to 1995 without - AO contributions was due mostly to the incredible eruption of Mount Pinatuba. It made the strat an icebox and lingered for years. I thought this time period should be used cautiously as any analogs for future winters.

You stil feel that the stronger the El Nino , granted it is West based / Modaki , the more it could benefit my region , the Mid Atlantic ? Also, have you done any research about the type of El Nino and the correlation the the NAO domain? Through the years so many NAO formulas by others have not worked out. However, I remember you mentioing Tom ( Isotherm) has fairly good skill in this area, looking forward to his thoughts as well as your Winter forecast later on.

Looking at that Euro forecast graph it would appear it takes off rather quickly from here, most of the forecasted rise is closer to the present versus later. Does that mean the forecast is more accurate, not sure. Ray, is that forecast bordering on moderate now ?

Nice way to look at things in a almost a Zen-like manner :-) In many lean years 2005 would indeed be great in comparison

It has certainly has been being making some significant moves the last 60 days. 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41 -9.91 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

Thats good ?

Agree, yuck !! Yoda do you know when the Euro seasonal is released again ? I thought it was today ?

Did you see that modeled storm in Eastern Canada from the GFS, crazy forecast but then again maybe not. Could be the start of the change.

Thats all true and interesting as well. As for the turn to wetter here , that seems off into the future a bit . My daughter in Denver might see snow soon. Pretty wet out West and in Cali rain , wow

Seems HM thinks we should not use the later 70's or the 94-95 one , I believe one one reason for not using the 70's is he feels we are not in that regime and for the 94 one too close to the volcanic eruption and other factors he mentions below. Hey I am totally fine with using 09-10 though per uncle W :-)

And even storms predicted to stay South still came North and nailed NYC ( maybe one exception 09-10 ) and lets not forget all the recent thundersnow - crazy times. You guys have done very well .

Well, even though you said it is too early to tell, it would seem if you enjoy snow then we better get come cool, wet weather ASAP. Of course on the flip side, maybe it is not possible any longer to depend on other winter seasons any longer as a forecast tools, because of global weather changes the last two decades.

Yeah that might be interesting, you have to think though based on the repeating pattern this year moisture wil return. A lot of rain that was recorded this past summer was from the battles of fronts coming South and then stalling out - due to the very strong WAR, also some winter like systems as well I think. Wonder what will cause the next wetter cycle .....maybe Tropical by mid-month. Should be interestig to see how things progress.

Interesting how things have flipped in terms of rainfall. Looks dry except for scattered storms later today ad then a record High Pressure ridge next week building oover the Eastern States. I look for very warm and dry weather. Funny the SOI continues to plummet yet temps here well above normal. I guess the second part of the month could turn out wetter as the EPS shows a pattern change after mid month.

As a follow up if you really have some trouble areas and are concerned that you might miss a watering these gems from GreenView , called paper grass mulch work wonders, I have used them and I can say they do work. They expand when you water them and provide an additional source of moisture plus there is a tiny bit of starter fertilizer as well, these gems ( paper based ) will naturally break down over time. A clever product indeed. :-) You can get them at Lowes , I believe Home Depot currently does not carry them . https://www.homedepot.com/p/GreenView-10-lb-Fairway-Formula-Seed-Success-Biodegradable-Mulch-with-Fertilizer-2329826/304292773

Wow, even Ryan is impressed