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frd

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  1. frd
    Pretty crazy sounding there
  2. frd
    I believe I read many schools have been cancelled in the high risk areas today out West due to the nature of the forecast, timing of the storms, and the probabilities of extensive severe weather and tornadoes.
  3. frd
    Marginal risk today, here but wow to the High Risk in Oklahoma and Texas. Going to be some incredible videos coming from that area. I am sure some of the best storm chasers in the country are there today, as it has been talked about for over a week, due to the high potential for large and long track d tornadoes.
  4. frd
    From Mount Holly for today, and I noticed a 90 degree reading possible in Southern Delaware. Looks like severe potential lower but the odds of getting into some thunderstorm activity better than yesterday 000 FXUS61 KPHI 201026 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 626 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front associated with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes into Canada will cross our region this afternoon and evening. High pressure is then expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front arrives in our area late Thursday night and Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday which may stall to our south on Sunday. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A quiet start to the morning after a muggy and humid night. Temperatures will once again be on the rise, with most places making it into the mid to upper 80s. Portions of southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland may in fact reach 90. Slightly cooler along the shore and in the higher terrain of the Poconos with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves southeastward across the mid-Atlantic. The severe threat appears to be lower than yesterday, though non- zero. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Instability looks to be lower than yesterday with ML CAPE values forecast to top around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be a little lower as well, with 0-3 km shear forecast to be less than 30 knots, thus a little less supportive of stronger thunderstorm cells. With the timing of the front, storms look to fire a little further southeast than yesterday, likely initiating along the Delaware River Valley by 4 to 5 pm and moving offshore by 9 to 10 pm. There could be some localized flooding concerns in areas that see brief heavy rainfall, but storm motion should prevent as much training as was seen yesterday.
  5. frd
    Wow to Monday for Texas and OK., it might be an awesome day. Some signals are really historic for the potential of severe weather and tornadoes out there.
  6. frd
    This is pretty cool from Ventrice.
  7. frd
    Line forming and moving East now https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=lwx&product=NCR&loop=yes
  8. frd
    I read we are nowhere near the low point of the still progressing solar minimum.
  9. frd
    Long range has potential, after the 15 th.
  10. frd
    Wow, an incredible collection of videos within that link, thanks for posting mappy !
  11. frd
    Getting brighter here currently. Mount Holly thinks the warm front may reach as far North as Philly by late afternoon. May need to watch the Delmarva later. from AM update FXUS61 KPHI 031344 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019 Another shortwave trough will begin approaching the region by late afternoon and into the early evening hours. Thus, this time frame will be a focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. Currently not expecting and of these storms to be severe, but given modest instability during the late afternoon, cannot rule out a rogue strong storm or two perhaps reaching severe criteria, particularly across Delmarva.
  12. frd
    @bluewave Do you feel the general warmth and especially the warmth in the recent fall months, Sept and October mostly, has been associated with the above average SST off the East Coast and the nature of the WAR. A sort of feedback taking place possibly which also plays a role in moisture transport up along the East Coast and warmer over night lows via higher dews. Any thoughts? Thanks !
  13. frd
    Same here CAPE, I missed any rotaton to my North but of note was the intense rainfall so loud in fact that is blocked out the thunder which was almost a constant hum. I was in a warned area though. This storm did not compare at all with the rather intense cell (s) we had earlier this week. The one that hit us at 2:45 AM and lasted unabated until 3:15 AM. Constant winds over 35 gusting to 60 That was a every 4 year storm to me. The winds should dry things nicely tomorrow , maybe cut the grass again.
  14. frd
    Damn this might be close .... Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 429 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019 MDC015-029-262100- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190426T2100Z/ Kent MD-Cecil MD- 429 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 429 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Betterton, or 7 miles southeast of Aberdeen Proving Ground, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Elkton, Cecilton, Betterton, Warwick, Sassafras, Bohemias Mills, Newtown, Brantwood, Cayots, Hollywood Beach, Kennedyville, Chesapeake City and Galena. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather.
  15. frd
    Tornado Warning Tornado Warning MDC015-029-035-262030- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.190426T2001Z-190426T2030Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 401 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland... Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Southwestern Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 401 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Bodkin Point, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Chestertown, Rock Hall, Betterton, Newtown, Morgnec, Kennedyville, Langford and Kingstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. &&
  16. frd
    Heard a water spout crossing the Chessie SE of Baltimore
  17. frd
    That last enhanced risk for my area was like a mini derecho. Where as that line hit at 2:45 AM this looks like maybe 6 PM here. I am hoping for no downed trees, finally got the yard looking nice. Will be an interesting late afternoon. Also, just like the last time, the winds will be stong tomorrow around the area, however, doubt we get the high wind advisory, but you never know. The last advisory was posted rather late. Has been an active April for sure .
  18. frd
    To some the weekend has started early. Many folks I know are off tomorrow.
  19. frd
    You are correct, there was a rather dramatic decrease in areal QPF in the latest WPC discussion and forecast. Not often do you see such a reduction close to real time from them. What was consistent for over 8 cycles, 4 days, has shifted the heaviest rainfall well South of us , coinciding with the higher severe risk. I am still expecting a decent rainfall event but not epic.
  20. frd
    Not nearly as bad up here above the canal, but that was a wicked cells/line from 2:45 AM to about 3:16 AM. We were in a warned area at that time from Mount Holly. Almost like a mini derecho. Continuous heavy rain, blinding sheets and constant high wind and then gusts, maybe up to 55 to 60 . The only missing element were winds higher to say 70 or more. Thought there would be many downed tree but got very, very lucky. Only broken limbs.
  21. frd
    Yoda, what are your feelings for the Delaware area with storms later today. Thanks. I do see a hazard mention up for the upper Bay to my West.
  22. frd
    Yeah. Your area did better than many. Seems even in March the seasonal trends continue : From Mount Holly for later in the week : Will say that there do seem to be some similarities to the pattern we saw for much of February with troughing in the West and ridging in the East, but also cold air and high pressure not far north over eastern Canada. So an early hypothesis on the end of the week would feature something we`ve seen several times this winter: a leading wave sliding over or south of the region around Friday, with a larger storm behind it tracking to our west through the Great Lakes.
  23. frd
    Never feel bad for Boston. They get from one storm, what I typically get in a season. 2 decent storms for them equals a good winter here. I get it, they have an awesome location and snow climo. I am bitter. I will enjoy the three upcoming days of highs at or below freezing on my barren ground as Boston locks into a deep winter period.
  24. frd
    I thought the lattitude here would help me to a degree even the the elevation is 72 feet LOL I knew there were going to be issues when I checked the obs last night and saw folk West of me at rather high elevations reporting rain. I knew at that time Pamela Anderson was visiting again. I had to text my daughter at UD in Delaware and tell here classes as planned. showme was right the mids sucked. AND ...... 64 pages for freakin rain. Time for the warm weather.
  25. frd
    I can report a small area of snow under the wiper blade. I honestly thought, as late as 6 PM last night, Northern Delaware schools would be getting at the least a 2 hour delay. Surprisgly they closed last Friday from Thursday's night storm which was only around 3 inches maybe 4 in certain spots. Thr trend this year has also been warm wet and we hardly ever get snow on the ground with an incoming cold air mass. How freak'in boring. Like to go back to the 1960's winters or lore.
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