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True, as you know many times the colder outcomes go towards Europe or even Siberia. We hardly ever get lucky with them. A fickle beast.

Ha Ha Yeah, I can live with his forecast and no strat talk. Basically, he states it is not needed for the outcomes he is forecastng. I was simply curious.

Isotherm thank you for your outlook. I was looking forward to it . Can you explain, if time permits, why you feel a technical SSWE during the MET winter is not likely this year? I read this part " solar flux is running quite low, as we descend into the minimum of solar cycle 24 (which is still at least 1 year away). Flux values have generally hovered around 700 or slightly lower. Suppressed solar forcing in concert with increasingly westerly shear stress due to the positive QBO will act to stabilize the upper level stratospheric vortex, and destructively interfere with sudden stratospheric warming events." I thought maybe the odds were higher due to the phase change with the QBO and the low solar background state. Seems we need solar forcing ? Thanks, and much appreciated !

As for this I am surprised. i thought maybe this winter the odds were increased. ( see the quote below from his outlook ) Plus the SSWE last Feb caused the cold and snowy March, right ? " In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern."

Me too !!

Thank you , thank you :-) Been waiting on his outlook for a long time. I feel he does a very good job. I LOVE THIS !!!! ( from his outlook ) The sub-tropical jet (STJ) should become active with wetter than normal and snowier than normal conditions. Most of the Northeast corridor will have the first real chance of a white Christmas in almost a decade.

The transition from late summer to Fall and then a preview of winter was pretty remarkable. I had figs on my fig tree up till yesterday here , now zap, everything falling to the ground just looking out the window. I look forward to the next transition from winter preview to deep winter with snow cover and a snow swept landscape. I hope your reseeding holds :-) I never got to doing my lawn, but will try a new method and do mid winter seeding after the ground starts to freeze and crack. Might be a waste of money, will see.

Seems later in the month there is pressure on the PV from both the Atlantic and Pac sides, certainly no blue ball up there.

Andrew makes some wild 3 D animations regarding the strat

I hate to even bring this up, but I will :-) I read some update from Judah and basically it implies that the nature of the SAI ad the timing aspect at the VERY end of the month of October, ( very important to him/his research ), plus other various factors such as drivers and preconditioners of the upcoming pattern that he looks to to drive a winter -AO are in his favor and according to him look good if you like winter and cold and snow. So, we better have a averaged -AO this winter. I still feel that despite him taking credit for past winters that were cold but that did not feature a -AO he still has some insights worth considering. I like to look at 20 + things and then try to get a consensus feeling, I am with you Bob, I think this winter will deliver compared to thr past few.

Interesting given this normally shows warmth I think

Would you then say weaker Nino = colder winter overall ? versus 02-03 and 09-10 possibly ? And maybe certain areas will simply have more snow ( above climo ) due to more frequent events, ( even with less -NAO ) versus years like 02-03 and 09-10 that had HECS / MECS and contributed so much to the overall snowfall totals. I still like the overall manner in which the SSTs seem to favor keeping the MJO out of the super warm phases. That could change though at some point.

You always has great insights and weather facts ! Question, do you feel in regards to what you posted above are there any possible correlations to the coming winter ? Or, simply a chance happening.

Interesting model uncertainy has been occurring - and even the Euro struggling , as seen here : Nothing set in stone yet. So based on the weeklies were off the latest Euro can easily change on this Monday. The Scand feature is highly interesting and a close fit to 2014, player too maybe in a mid winter SSW with the current phase change of the QBO ad other factors. The SSW is speculation, but the model changes are real . Bluewave commented a couple weeks ago maybe model swings are due to the battling of Nina and Nino

2014 ish And the Scandinavian ridge feature on the GEFS by Judah - very prominent global depiction there, of course only a forecast More on the Scandinavian ridge:

Blah, is right ......... not what I expected, but goes along with many mets that feel December is warm. Oh well . There are times when the weeklies crap the bed too Euro is not perfect by far , weeklies have had intervals of great verification scores and then, not so good.

Brrrrr......... Hat.... check Gloves...check ....... Chap Stick ......big check Sled...... not yet :-(

Ha Ha "Group think" :-)

Although speculation, certainly this goes in the plus column, continued pressure on the PV , this is also centered in the second half of this month, so there are now a few things that could play a hand in December's weather, say after December 10th possibly.

Might get some MJO support for colder risks after December 10 th to the 15 th period

Ah.....I agree as well. Noticing changing SST profiles in the NW Atlantic and off the East Coast. We are losing the incredible warmth that was off the East Coast up until late September, so maybe for every action a reaction ? This is only one small part of the entire ocean-atmospheric puzzle, but will be fun to watch.

You might be right this time. However, your post is very general in nature, as is my reply ;-) But on a serious note, we could get a decent -NAO event in December despite most saying it can not happen. That would be awesome by the way, if we did . I hope you are correct.

This might be better in the Winter thread , but it has to do with November as well. Although I can not pick up on anything ( well of course the preconditioner wave 1 I got that part ) specific for December I believe I posted on this before here , and reading between the lines maybe HM is saying something about the upcoming December NAO , or maybe nothing ;-) Certainly I feel the warmth up there and the ice free waters, plus the warmth targeted for Finland amongst other things, and that area I guess I would not be surprised to have a -NAO develop in December at some point.

Ventrice stated, watch the long range models as I alluded to before for changes, as in colder risks out in time .......seems might be happening ......some winters the cold is like POOF other winters the cold seems to want to stay and when it leaves it returns quickly. Maybe this is the other winter , hard to tell yet, but maybe

Models models - maybe some changes coming up