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Wow, very quick and still rising. This is from the West Pac storms, is that correct ? Moderate in site maybe .

You are right on spot with that Bob ! What I just read and found very surprising is, that this is the first time in many, many years that Canada has had back to back cold months since the early 1990"s. From that I guess not surprising when you look at the North America snow advance, very good indeed. And, to take a step further, I posted a few days back the Euro with incredibel snow cover continuing to advance South going to mid-December into the US ! Also, the snow depth in Eastern Canada is like, wow ! I really feel this raises the chance for at least one true Arctic blast. And, from there maybe we lay the foundation ( feedback ) for a deep winter period where we keep the snow on the ground for weeks.

He said this is the first time in his 20 years of winter seasonal forecasts that he is going 200 % snowfall ............ yippee !!!!!!!

Some mets actually say that this will be a hybird Nino . Meaning they think the warmer SSTs will also be located in the Eastern regions as well. Eh, I was looking at the latest SSTs and I am not so sure about that. And, as you can see above from @psuhoffman not even a Modaki is a sure win for an awesome winter. @bluewave mentioned in the NY thread that the SST profile and atmospheric response is still a battling combination of Nina and Nino. He also mentioned this might be the reason for the huge changes in the models. Any one with a seasonal forecast this year is really going to face a challenge. I read Judah Cohen this morning and he posted the CFS and he showed the model with a pattern for December ( cough, cough ) that is a classic El Nino . Looked great by the way.

Very interesting ......do you have any insights into the cooler waters West of Australia ? Meaning do they help the SSTS warm up in the West Pac , sort of like a feedback of sorts ? And, do you feel there is any relatiosnship ( as one private sector met I will not name talked about this month ) between those cooler waters and the MJO staying ( influencing it ) in more favorable cold phases this winter season in the East ( as in more MJO phases 1, 2 and less 5 and 6 ) . Thanks !

Whether this Euro forecast for snowfall is is even close to being accurate and reality , if there is that much snow North and Northwest of us we are going to shiver at some point. Wow, to the snow cover and the the depth of the snow in Eastern Canada. We are putting down the pathway for cold air with little moderation if we get the right pattern later in the winter, or sooner.

This caught my eye and gave me a chuckle

Yeah, today the SOI was plus 15. And like you said ,the SOI has been very positive the last 30 days. Wonder when we transition to a more typical Nino pattern and leave in the past any Nina hangover effects. I have heard different points of view on this. I do like seeing the Eastern Nino regions rather coolish with the continued 1.0 to 1.1 in the Central Pac. regions.

This is of interest as to any relationship with the NAO and the type of El Nino ( Central vs Easter based ) Some, not here, state a -NAO is more likely in a West Pac or Central El Nino, but I believe here the research proves otherwise. Please note to fully grasp the relationship or lack ( trival in nature ) you need to read the complete study, very interesting as I said. I read the research but honestly do not recall if I missed anything on the phase change re the QBO or solar. This winter season I imagine those areas require careful consideration. Note : in the research many factors to come into play , for example the state of the Walk Cell., also all bets or off as Amy states, below, if there is a SSWW then -NAO probs might increase . Recent research https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1 Only during CP El Niño winters with SSWs do the CMIP5 models simulate a negative AO pattern at the surface, although the coupling to the surface is weaker than during EP El Niño winters, particularly over Europe. This seems to be more related to the occurrence of SSWs than to the effect of CP events, as revealed by the frequency of occurrence of SSWs, which is not statistically different from the climatology in this case (at the 95% confidence level). This indicates that CP El Niño does not favor a perturbed stratosphere, whose most extreme manifestations are SSWs. Older research https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-012-1570-2 Long model integrations suggest that the response to the two types of El Niño are similar in both the extratropical troposphere and stratosphere. Namely, both Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño lead to a deepened North Pacific low and a weakened polar vortex, and the effects are stronger in late winter than in early winter. However, the long experiments do indicate some differences between the two types of El Niño events regarding the latitude of the North Pacific trough, the early winter polar stratospheric response, surface temperature and precipitation over North America, and globally averaged surface temperature. These differences are generally consistent with, though smaller than, those noted in previous studies.

What is that look up top, elongated PV ?

Was not 1994/5 actually decent to our NE ? I thought it was maybe ? Good data , thanks .

Seems to be a general idea the worse of winter ( cold & snow ) begins after the first of the year. But again, you never know. I like the concensus from the few mets featured here in the article for AN snowfall. I believe Accuweather has tweaked/changed the forecast they had, now going with more snow for the Northern Mid-Atlantic Looking forward to seeing the next updates as well in early November from the seasonal models, such as the Ukmet and the Euro. Want to see them stick to the general theme the last two months, as that would give many even greater confidence for a decent winter this year.

Mitch no doubt figured out the riddle of the QBO :-) Awesome to hear, I miss his posts here though.

To be honest I know most here don't read and put much faith into JB as the consensus is hype and snow, but once in a while his videos on the Daily summary are very good when he does not talk about climate change on and on ..... Well, last week the focus one day were the CFS runs for October from Sept and basically the accuracy of the model itself and versus other models, ie, the Euro.. That was a great short video and it really showed you at that at this particular time the CFS did not do so great to put it lightly. I guess bottom line I rather look at the JMA, Ukmet, Euro , etc. We all long for a total consensus so I will dance in the streets when the CFS shows big dog blocking for us at leads :-)

More from Eric this time on the El Nino and the global AAM, for those who enjoy the STJ

This is interesting to see and fits whats going on presently. Some here a while back asked about SSWE and when they happen and if they are favored during Ninos or Ninas, well this post by Eric Webb does not answer that but does mention that they are more likely during the QBO phase changes from eQBO to wQBO.

If the model can not forecast temps correctly, then why even bother looking at the NAO / blocking from it which is even more complex and hard to predict at long leads. But, I understand though, it would be nice for it to show some - NAO blocking.

I am surprised the waters West of Aussie are still so cold and I know some mets have spoken abou this, and how this might have some effect on the MJO phases this upcoming winter. Favoring certain phases over others.

A warm November may not be a bad thing at all. Most seasonal models have the best pattern in Jan to March timeframe, however, I be interested to see whether the PV weakening during mid November happens and from there what happens next. Maybe for the first time ever , well almost ever, we get winter to lock in near Christmas this year. Even a warmish first half of December is not a death blow to the season as a whole. I still like the idea of a cold and hopefully snowy March .

Ray, what are your thoughts, if you are able to talk about this prior to your seasonal outlook , as some here are stating the Modaki El Nino is a no go, but instead we will have a hybrid El Nino . You agree and does it really matter? And. can not things still change in the weeks ahead. Also, there is the debate as well about the high frequency forcing still being West based in the winter regardless.

As mentioned a couple days ago ....... a weakening PV is in the cards

I know another variation of this was posted above but I like the chart here and looking ahead at the 31 st with the weather models it is possible after a brief Siberian warm up another bout of snow sweeps East and South and provides additional snow cover on the last two days of the month. So then you have a situation with a good ending with a rapid SAI and also a very good snowfall coverage in addition to snowfall advance.

This is why some folks in the weather community are saying it is not wise to use 2009 as a analog to this year, because certain factors are missing in the area of blocking and the El Nino is not as strong. HM alluded to this as well , as he mentioned you could back to late October 2009 and see that big time blocking was going to be likely in December 09.

What caused that block to form ? Do you recall ? Lately they have been very, very rare. I know sometimes SSWE related, wave breaking , retrograde from the East . I can not remember

This Dec 2009 storm was awesome in my area , measured 24 inches in several differant locations......the 2016 Blizzard that killed Baltimore and nearby areas here only dropped I think 14 to 16 inches - I believe dry slot was the cause as you stated