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Well, I am in the same spot as you. I have decided to wait at least another 5 days to see what happens , mostly because I am not sure I can be here every day to water. Granted there is some dew and the nights are longer but watering is essential. I also feel this way because I am convinced there is not going to be a early freeze/frost this year, so if that is correct ( I hope ) then even waiting another week is not goiong to be a big deal.

Funny thing is this matches the Euro monthly wind maps I have posted here about how the Euro's forecast wind depictions could reveal a stormy and wet Jan and a dry Feb with little wind, that could be meant to suggest Feb would be cold and dry.

Nice research and comparisons.

Maybe this raises the odds of a warmer October overall extending well into November and then a sudden flip. Or, even the possibility of warmer weather continuing even deeper into the Fall. Like you had mentioned before in other posts, the recents Fall seasons have been rather warm. And winter a few times has extending in late March.

Great info as always. Any correlation to the ensuing winter ?

Well it could be related to the area in the Pacific where the greatest lift is located and how strong By just looking at 87 and 09 they were stronger Modaki El Ninos . If that is the case then stronger West based El Nino the better. I am a bit confused because you have the largest area of sub surface warmth located in the West Pac right now. I think there is more to it than this though. Going to have to see how the SSTs develop in the Gulf of Alaska as well. The high lattitude blocking this season, or the lack of it, could be a game changer. Still very early to call things, in a month we can get a decent idea on the evolution of the PV and we can get an idea as well about snow cover in Canada , the QBO, and changes in the PAC and whether the El Nino is still going to be weak still and if there any any signs it going more East. I even see the mention of a two year Nino, with next year's Nino being a significant event.

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.

In addition to the above post about vertical wave activity there is this as well. I expect some news headlines soon about this as we enter October. Pretty crazy stuff not to mention the over nght Euro 's forecast of a record shattering High Prssure area up near NW Alaska to set up. Plus, that combined with the warmer El Nino ocean current and the warmer air masses ( typhoon recurve ) and together that adds up to the NSW and the CPC calling for a warm October. ( With a rather high confidence mark of 80 % ..... WOW ) Also a later, almost near record for the sea ice minimum https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent And here the forecasts of a warm October , incredible forecast due to the high confidence level https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent You have to think we are in a uncharted state , wondering my self about the role of this with the early season formation of the PV and the relationship to high lattitude blocking. Will be fascinating to watch how things unfold.

What, if any consequences does this have for high lattitide blocking in October and even beyond, in and around this region ? Also, recently looking at the SST changes in the Gulf Of Alaska they are rising . Would any of this warmth cause and or re-inforce a + PDO in developing in the month(s) ahead.

Continued weakness regarding the PV , of interest as well is the /Atlantic side .

I thought the left side bar on this site was interesting , as to various previous year's total spotless days. I was focusing on 09 and 10 when i was looking . Seems based on the article as well we are continuing to move downward. Today is 15 in a row with no sun spots .

So true. Ray, are you making progress on your solar research . I know in the other thread you were debating how important it is whether we are headed into the solar min, or whether there is a lag ( headed away from ) and it might be best for next winter in that scenario.

Never saw this product before from the Euro. I guess looking at it you can formulate all types of possible sensible weather outcomes like Ben did .

Canadian snow cover for a change of pace

Sounds good, but what are your thoughts on this regarding a full basin event? I came across this today. ( below ) I myslef do not buy that, but I would think the El Nino could become a hair more robust, but still be West-Based / Modaki in nature.

Long range weather projects is a huge market for many public and private companies. I read a report on the Wall Street Journal it is a growing field. Short term but, longterm outlooks guide decisions about inventory, commodities, the futures markets, what to makwe on the assembly lines and beyond that retailers, and what to focus on and how much, beyond that even more such as chemicals and other compunds. Knowing ahead in weather is a big market.

In regards tp the last post , here is Amy's post from the 25 th . Honestly, I was not aware it was that weak last year during the Fall Season . I wonder if that had set the stage for the later season SSWE that took place. I know and we had discusssed last Jan and Feb there are precursors to SSWE that lend some insights. I also read that at this time , very early in the season, you can not really tell how the PV will progress down the road. I think we need to be deeper into the cold season to make educated forecasts and assumptions.

Interesting to say the least.

Ray, does the large area of subsurface warmth increase the possibility this could go to a moderate level , or is that simply wishcasting?

Great news < And , so far 14 days in a row with no sunspots. With the later minimum next summer might be cooler as well ........................ ha ha I wish .

Ah, OK, Ii was thinking of 2006 - 07 winter . I also came across this good summary as well , link below . Per Ray, ( aka Benchmark via the New England Forum ) " First of all, while it was technically a modoki el nino, it only registered about a DM mean modoki reading +.33 on the scale, which is somewhat lower than where this event is projected to verify at near +.50. " http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/weak-modoki-el-nino-imminent.html

I thought 05 / 06 was a very very weak Modaki like .33. Do you know if that is true but what happened I think is that as the season progressed the warmer Pac SSts shifted East.

All true :-) Also , the Euro and the Aussie MJO models are depicting a move into phases 1 and 2 down later in October. The Plains looked like they will be locked into colder weather soon and lasting a while. At least the progression looks good by the models. I guess the next things to watch will be the NE Pac and the PDO, the extent of the developing Modaki El Nino, and looking at the strat and patterns up above, like the QBO , solar, and hints at the strength of the PV.

That is a huge spike up, but it may very well may trend down in a few weeks. Your right of all the areas this one is very volatile. Meanwhile the big negative SOI burst continues. Nice to see that at this point . The SST profile in the SW Pacific is very interesting.

Interesting from my days back at Eastern Weather and before then Wright Weather, ( ages ago ) KA was on a roll for a few years . DT brought him more so into the public eye I think. Doesn't KA use observed weather events up to this point in the DC area for his foirecasts ? I thought KA did not use analogs?? Regardless , I think it is really hard to make a forecast this early. Seems he and Weather 53 are at odds with temps. As for Weather 53's analog set I have not heard those years yet being thrown out by many. I think this year with a gun held to my head there is no middle ground , I think it is either going to be cold and snowy or warm and wet , or even the potential for warm and dry despite the El Nino. These days seems the weather wants to go one way or another.