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This just out....... I thought we did better with a moderate El Nino, however, maybe the location of the warmer waters and forcing are just as important . Mentioning this from another forum : From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

The cicadas are out in force this morning , seems like mid July as I went out for a coffee. All outside surfaces drenced from dew and moisture - ugh !

Granted this is looking out into September, still it's amazing how long this warmth looks to hold. I guess over seeding will have to wait . I cancelled my lawn aerator till at least the middle of September. Lawn was recovering a bit and now this heat has it looking aweful again .

This is true, looking at September as a whole it seems only the very end of the month may feature some cooler weather. And wow, there are some very warm SSTs off the East Coast , the buoy off of Cape May , NJ. is 80 degrees F. Also, it looks like the Atlantic hurricane season will be ramping up big time soon, A large hurricane in the center of the Atlantic and moving North over time next week and then another more threatening long track may form and threaten the Southeast in 15 to 20 days . Speculation of couyrse, but things are going to get more active. This will also possibly change the NW Atlantic SST configuration no doubt as well with implications for thew winter season maybe.

Speaking of the QBO - Also Amy has good stuff on this topic and SSWE

Interesting, he like most is focusing on the El Nino, but he, as well as others , seem to give weight as well to the QBO and solar. The QBO could be in the sweet spot but still hard to know. Solar continues to drop. He also mentioned the Atlanic SST tripole cold/warm/cold but honestly of all the indices I think the NAO is the most difficult to predict. I found it interesting that many of his constructed analog maps based on the QBO and the weak El Nino had a stellar December. With Feb not so great. Confusing to a degree, as Feb seems to be the best in our parts with an El Nino. I myself like his thoughts and looking at some data and history maybe a good December is possible although to get an entire month to be good is very difficult in this day and age.

Over -night EPS showing some indications that heat will be short lived. Intereaction of those West Pac typhoons most likely.

This SST anomaly might very well change by the heart of the cold season.

Wow ! Very impressive . I think you were due right :-)

Seems the Jasmtec flipped to warmer in it's latest update, and reading a bit here in the New England forum there is thought that it may be due to it losing the warmer DJF SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska. Way to early for anything solid to grasp IMHO

Reading all the comments, ( well mostly Ventrice's ) in this tweet was very interesting . Seems the low frequency forcing and and convection to set up near the date line per Ventrice during the cold season.

Hey Bob, thanks for stopping in . Looking ahead at least there is hope . I myself prefer moderate over weak and West based. I believe weak Ninos favor Southern New England and moderate Ninos favor us more, just saying, I know you know that ha ha . But, my point is that I rather gamble with the Nino going stronger than forecasted. Might be hard to get a moderate EL Nino, not sure at this point. I am more comfortable with the thinking the warmest waters and the best forcing is West based. Interesting read from Tip in the New England forum about the winter evolution and the Nino and other elements at play. Not as simple as it apears. Heh, is it ever ? Take care Bob, I am noticing the days getting shorter - we are on the road back :-)

I second that, plus the food is good. I recommend the Disney Planner thing where you go to things, rides, etc, based on a time table counter the normal trends . Developed by a Disney tour guide(s).

The general trends continue . I like what HM put together here

I could be mistaken, but believe the solar min reaches it's lowest point in late 2019 or early 2020. If so, the winter of 19-20 will be effected as well, and possibly more so than this coming winter. Noty sure of the QBO at that point though. Also, keep an eye as the Fall rolls on the ozone levels up there as HM made referenced to that a few weeks ago,

Speculation these MJO events continue into the winter season, possibly help to forecast certain active periods, not sure, but another one is forecasted.

SOI going down and more to continue. Meanwhile :

Further North carzy stuff just offshore NJ , as the area that effected me rolled North Pretty interesting August in some areas

Got pounded again last night , flood warnings issued and extend into SE PA.

Getting hit very hard here now , multiple rounds of very heavy rain, Flood warning in effect. Slow movers too

Good luck with everything . Wonder what the September temps will bring . I would prefer cooler.

Lawns in my parts here look terrible. Still unsure of the reason , maybe a fungus or poor top soil . But I have a lot of repair and over seeding to do this Fall. Might just be tall fescue is a poor choice. Even fescues that are suppose to be great in heat not working well. Now I have this terrbile nutsledge coming out in the areas where the lawn died off. That is a first as well. I actually think it has to do maybe with a ph issue, Will get a soil sample. And that is a terrible thing to have in your lawn. I feel it might be oportunistic too, when the grass was thick I did not see any. I have enough to kepp busy with the garden yet the lawn. Always things to do.

Don't want the CFS to feel left out when talking about the super long range winter outlooks

Modoki , : I mean to do justice, you have to visit the thread. HM's research is always great.

Ah, thanks very much. Good advice. It may just be that part of the soil dries out faster as closer to heated roads, more sun, and less top soil depth. It did go a very long time without water, longer than you guys across the Bay as I was missing storms for a while. It is not fungus as it just appears dormant or dead. Thanks First time in three years this happened, last year and the year before not too bad.