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Interesting from my days back at Eastern Weather and before then Wright Weather, ( ages ago ) KA was on a roll for a few years . DT brought him more so into the public eye I think. Doesn't KA use observed weather events up to this point in the DC area for his foirecasts ? I thought KA did not use analogs?? Regardless , I think it is really hard to make a forecast this early. Seems he and Weather 53 are at odds with temps. As for Weather 53's analog set I have not heard those years yet being thrown out by many. I think this year with a gun held to my head there is no middle ground , I think it is either going to be cold and snowy or warm and wet , or even the potential for warm and dry despite the El Nino. These days seems the weather wants to go one way or another.

Early season snow is a bad thing. I read and experienced snowfall prior to Dec 15 th of 4 inches or more always seems to lead to an above average season. For example Nov. 2002 had a steady advance in snow cover and that early Dec snowfall. not always accurate but many times it does work well. I recall reading from Weatherfella many years ago, that looking at Canada in Nov can give hints as to where the coldest outbreaks might be going on later in the season. Of interest as well is November and how much snowfall advances here in the US including snow cover. That has implications for the upcoming Decembers many times We have had a couple super cold outbreaks here recently but have lacked the snowcover to hit record lows and also lacked the moisture as well to cause any snowfall during the coldest part of the invading air mass.

Well, believe it or not ,Canada has cooled to the point where our neighbor to the North is now below normal. Not sure how this plays out in October and November . As for precip the battle zone continues with above normal precip. As the seasonal changes start to evolve with the long wave patterns in the NH , the onset of a weak El Nino and the continued decline of solar as we approach the winter solstice maybe we can better understand the coming winter.

In all my years here in mid Delaware ( nea the C and D Canal ) this is by far the most lawn damage from dew points and molds and mildew and fungus. Never remember a summer with dews so high and so high for so long. Also, an interesting look on some trees I have not seen in years, surreal in a way that everything still looks like summer, but the sunset and the days getting shorter makes it seem strange to me. not sure what to make of it but the longer we go like this I would venture a guess that we experience a massive flip to cold. When , not sure. Because it seems we are not in play with this colder pattern coming up .

It's the warm Atlantic SSTs you think? Rather Warm SSTs still untouched by a real storm.

Are you seeing mold everywhere in the soils ? And, lawn fungus from this record breaking dew point mess

What happened ? I looked at the Facebook page and some said that it was maybe the end ? http 500 error is a hosting error

I wonder as we near the solar min, or as you state we are close enough already, whether in the winter season the lower solar impact feeds back and supports more expansive snow cover growth . Or, whether as you state the connection between aerosols and the high lattitudes is more so a trigger. ( as in the -AO ) causing a snow advance futher South in the lattitudes. I also wonder if there is any meaningful association to SSWE and the lower solar backdrop/ozone/aerosols, etc. I know we have gone a number of years since this past winter without a true SSWE.

I see OK, interesting progression globally. Way to early to draw conclusions, except to take note of the progression itself, and compare down the line to other runs.

Do you know when the next release is from the Euro for DJF temps/ anomalies , is it the beginning of the every month or is this the normal time ?

Crazy + PNA forecasts being forecasted in the longterm, and coinciding with a pretty drastic decline in the SOI. Expect cooler to win out finally . One thing that caught my eye when looking at the PNA is the always persistent + NAO , I think give or take a day, the last time the NAO was negative more than two days was in early June. Loooking back at some recent summers , there had at least been some intervals of a negative NAO , not this summer, what if anything that means for the winter I have no idea .

Maybe there will be no real Fall this year, but a continuation of AN temps into Nov. and then a sudden turn to early winter weather by Thanksgiving - I could wish right :-) Maybe we pull the rubberband as far as it can go and then we snap back and head in the other direction. Was thinking about Fall into Winter - Is it true that an El Nino fall normally brings on a early to start to winter threats like 02-03, 09-10 , etc or is it random, any ideas ?

Thats great, on a side note I have heard various things from mets regarding the configuration of SSTs in the North Atlantic and the coming Winter's dominant NAO phase. Some say cold / warm / cold equal a - NAO signal where others have the opposite configuration, some seem to look at the Newfoundland cold pool as well for indications. Do you put much weight on the Northwest Atlantic SST profile when you look at the winter's possible NAO phase?

Sounds good, the solar impact has me the most intrigued followed second by the QBO.

LOL, I was referring to you Ray, and thanks for the reply. I am eagerly awaiting on yours and Isotherm's winter forecasts.

Ray, do you believe the next steep drop in the SOI in a few days is going to really put the El Nino on firm footing? Also, seems that sub surface warmth is rising up and expanding.

Agree. You know the Atlantic warm SSTs were left mainly untouched because of the way Florence moved in over the SE . Going to take a while I believe to transition to real Fall,. and when it does there is always the potential of a shorter Fall and a quicker start to winter . That may sound silly but you never know, but if that is going to be the case we would need to see signs in October and a step down pattern on the long range models.

Thanks, much appreciated .

Hey Bob I heard the forming PV already took a hit , bit unusual. and then there is this:

How are the waves , too big to ride ? Too rough ?

Amazing how warm the Ocean temps still are. I see nothing to cool them anytime soon, maybe just the seasonal decline of solar. Might be thinking this October we could have an East Coast hurricane threat , not out of the question based on the SSTs and progression of rising air over the Atlantic in a few weeks. https://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/atlantic-city-new-jersey

I agree, good thoughts. I know we are still dropping down in the solar cycle and not sure, as I have not checked , when we are suppose to hit the bottom and whether there is a lag effect. I am sure the winter outlooks ( some ) will take this into this account and explore it in more detail. The QBO is fascinating of itself , and that will play a role as well. I read that the El Nino is not going to be as robust and that some feel the Eastern regions are really going to warm up. I am not sure about that though. I read here on various forums that Some members, in other regional boards, feel that this El Nino will be weak, and because of that it will lead to more Miller B's and less snow for the Mid Atlantic . Who knows for sure. On the opposite spectrum what if forcing in the Pac is Modakii iun nature you get a different look . And then you have what Ventrice talks about, which is the low frequency forcing . A lot to consider.

2019 - 20 might be better :-) Seriously though the JAMSTEC changed tunes with it's most recent update going warm. That was a bummer. Also, going for a stronger El Nino as well. Interesting thing is previously it had Northern Canada and other areas reddish in the color scale, , maybe a sign of blocking - temp wise - now, I am not so sure as that flipped too. It is very early to make calls yet, but I like consistency and this flip well, is a concern to me. Have to see what the Euro does in it's next update. I believe we are at two in a row from the Euro with a good look for us.

So you are saying a warm, non eventful winter? Wonder why some seasonal models were depicting blocking on latest runs ?

It's about time :-)