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Yeah, all true. I am waiting for the day when a breakthrough will be made that can foresee the dominant NAO phase for the season ahead. I believe last year Isotherm did well with that , I have not heard from him posting recently.

We have had many times over the years a good a great NAO domain only to be left cold and dry. Or, the storm track to our South . Or simply, a stormless backdrop. To clarify my previous post I mean I prefer a - EPO +PNA and hopes for the active STJ. I agree with you though, you do need help here in NAO domain and the right combo of Pac and Atl can lead to our best snowfall events.

I rather have a great Pac than a good Atlantic side any day. I love seeing the storms too and the active STJ. The table is being set.

This is good indeed and I know last week HM alluded to the NH progression and the formation of the Ural anticyclone. He posted as well on his Twitter feed he dislikes talk of the strat when it pertains to things that are what he calls trivial. But, I still like to follow preconditions to the PV weakenings or displacements. I find it interesting nonetheless. I always value HM's insights. I followed him back on Wright Weather on AOL dialup back in the days :-) On a side note, from Judah this AM:

In addition to my previous post, there is this from Ventrice, who stated this morning you do not need a recurving typhoon to effect the Northern Pacific jet interaction. You can still have a jet extension which, as he shows, causes cyclogenesis and this travels along into the North Pac . Not sure the timing or whether it is related , but the over night Euo OP to shows a crazy and pretty powerful piece of energy at 220. Maybe this might spawn a powerful storm later .

More evidence of a warmer November continues , as the typhoon in the West Pac looks to go West and not recurve as per the overnight EPS , a change from 24 hoursd ago. Also, the weeklies from the JMA looks warmer as we progress through time.

Looking at the trends in the guideance the last few days, even the last week of October is shaping up not to be as cold as was originally forecasted a week ago. I think the cold shifts West in November and although not extreme we go back to a AN temp pattern.

This is good to see here :-) May bode well for after the November warm up if you are going against the odds and hoping for a colder December in the East . Speaking of future PV displacements :

That is true SSW forecasts exceeding 15 or more days have basically zero skill. However certain patterns, features, triggers and other factors can set up and may provide the foundation for a PV displacement or even a SSW event. Last year, as you know, there was a significant SSWE, but the models did not forecast exactly the time when it occured, but it did happen and they signaled the potential of one. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/plots/mapdisco/9Feb_2018/zonal_wind_forecasts.php

Not surprising with the deep NAO crash and then a rise a HA event. ( maybe ) Would be funny ( not ) , if this were the last time the NAO went significantly negative until Feb. I believe this -NAO was brought upon by wave breaking in the Atlantic. Still will achieve the QFP needed for a good sign of snow this winter that many hold close by, and of course this is still a good sign that the predominant coastal track this winter may be a reality.

Highly speculative but of interest due to the fact that the model has been forecasting this since early Sept. it generally has a window or time frame from late November to early Jan .

Nothing unusual at this time with the PV, and not a very strong PV at this time. Looking at the forecasts presently, seems progged to get stronger and then weaken slightly.

Agree.... in the end despite any changes to the El Nino, I think we are going to lack help in the my area, the Mid-Atlantic, from the NAO domain. However, maybe we counter that by having more nickel and dime events ( -EPO +PNA ) . If we get a period of - NAO and get cooperation from the Southern jet and disturbances , like in 09-10 then maybe one single storm we could put down a lot of the seasonal snowfall. However to based a seasonal forecast on that outcome is silly . I am looking forward to your outlook. When is is due, later this week ?

Speaking of the Pac and the El Nino , this might be of interest to you as HM was talking about how we get to a certain outcome(s ), starting from two different beginnings . Not putting words in HM's mouth but I thought this was a interesting post by him this morning. You can see below:

Ray, to me this adds further evidence to the coming El Niño and supports a continuation of warmth transport , at least from a ocean current origin, moving from the warmer waters of the far West Pac East to the Central Pac, and somewhat beyond. As Ventrice mentioned , "this is the longest fetch of surface Eastward currents I have seen to date to year. "

Weathafella, you might be correct. Interesting developments continue with this progressing El Nino ..... I really like this going forward in time.

Most seasonal models show in a general fashion a great Feb and a decent Jan , but Decembers can be fickle in a Nino years, Sure 2002 and 2009 delivered but we will need blocking. If we get a huge - EPO and cooperative Pac then we will see maybe colder & snowier December. I guess in about 4 weeks we should have a handle on December. Not sure the role and the progression of the MJO, but some have shown similarities to past Octobers, where the cycle is phase 1 , 2 and 3 and make the argument that by early December we should once again be in favorable colder/stormier phases for the East Coast. Maybe look for a pattern reload in early December after a moderation later in November, not sure, more time needed to see the progression of things in the Northern Hemisphere. Exciting times may be a coming .....

Yeah, so true Showme :-)

Yeah , the Eastern regions really will fluctuate and it is nice to see it coming down there, some past El Nino seasons you would see the shift happening now away from central based to more Eastern based. This year that is not happening, still expect central based Modaki type El Nino . Question remains the large sub surface warmth there , when will it surface and where, and does it last causing a two year event. This brings up the potential of a stormy cold March this year as we continue at that time to move further into the solar min and also factors that favor blocking might grow even stronger later in the winter season . Maybe this year brings an outcome in March similiar to 1958. Can see a significant snowstorm in March this year, just speculation, but on the table .

This is a good sign, a dropping NAO to negative , hard to believe it, but seems likely to happen. I think in the end changes in the NAO ( + to - and - to + ) might be better than having and hoping for very negative values. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml I expect this might be a kick off to a storm next weekend and the expectation of a lot of coastal storms this winter.

Wonder how long the warm blob lasts? I saw some posts here about that. I think Ian did an article on that very topic if I am not mistaken. I am thinking even if it does fad somewhat the El Nino should help out, but regardless, you would think winter starts early this year. Not saying December 2009 MECS but maybe something like Dec 2002. I think HM mentioned he felt things were not lining up to produce historic blocking this December. He said for blocking it needs to come from tropical forcing.

I think the Pac drives the pattern this winter , intervals of -EPO and + PNA and a few episodes later of -AO and even some -NAO.

More from HM, this time about 1994 , here I can see the logic about that year. So both of those years are extremes as he alludes to here. So maybe we get a combo from various years. I mean you can use a analog in a winter forecast, but we should all know that the year(s) used are similiar to a degree but never an exact match in seasonal forecasting. For example this year I myself can see March being very harsh , when I think March 2003 was not. I like 57 - 58 as a possible late season outcome .

Per HM , this is not a 2009 December coming up, OK To be fair to Anthony you really need to read all his tweets around this topic . He makes good points, as always. He went on to say about there are some positives, but also mentioned at this time back in 2009 he was already speculating on a big storm in December, as you can read below. I did not look, but wondering what the AO and NAO were like durig the summer of 2009.

That's better than most years I think with an El Nino ........