frd

Same site down here in Delaware , very surreal , looked twice as it almost could pass for an approaching snow squall - as in a a milky erie sky, was cool to see

There were maps, such as this, EPS 360 that when rolled forward in previous analog years evolved into a pretty deep winter period over the East. The question of course is how long. one thing for sure seems to be a very cold period and then some moderation after Nov. 20th. Still not cold enough presently to kill all the bugs yet, that should happen soon though. I am happen to be hopeful for once.

The very thing that may hinder a -NAO early in the season might be a positive for a SSW event at some point via this theory:

Isotherm has a decent handle on the NAO, but le is MIA.

Ray, what is the root cause of the moisture supression ? I thought last month a classic storm track was shown by the seasonals for the winter months. And the strange thing yesterday was the UKmet 's winter precip pattern too, at least to me, as I can't figure whether from moisture pattern was due to upstream blocking or what.

Hmm, interesting that Winter near me produced a seasonal snowfall of over 23 inches with the majority falling in March. I see several analogs and blends that indicate March might be a big month in the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Some with the potential of a HECS or MECS. Speculation purposes only.

Surprising to me at least the general wording from Ryan. Stated not much of a signal in the East.

This is 4 runs in a row right, or is it 3 in a row that shows a great h5 from the Euro ?

Well then , it's party time !!!

It had to be JB, because I listened to his daily update at 7:45 AM on WB and he spoke like he had the update in his hands at that time . Plus he was in a very good mood !

Good point, I hear that from some mets too. Due in part to the configuration of the SSTs in the SW Pac, and namely the still cooler/colder waters West of Aussie too.

I agree too, but to say the entire 31 days is a washout is a bit unrealistic, no one can be that sure without a crystal ball. Besides, at this point making a call for a warm December can still backfire, because there is enough time let for a wintry period to suddenly appear during the month, not to mention the models have been experiencing difficulty with cold and warm periods. Certainly would not call for a December 2009 , ha ha , but the extreme nature of things does bring up the possibilty of cold and snow sometime in December, and if so, I request a White Christmas please. I am with you though, that at some point we may need multiple threads on various snow threats because it simply looks so active. If the pattern reaches it's full potential I might need to bring out the OLD saying from Herb Clarke, Katie Bar the Doors !!!

You agree that between December, Jan and Feb, and maybe even March that this December is the most challenging to forecast from a seasonal point of view? And if you agree, would you feel any better predicting December , if all the updated seasonal models this week went colder with December for some reason? Thart is just speculation of course but just wondering. Maybe December becomes a month of two seasons, possibly turning colder later in the month, however I have no comfort with that idea at all.

Maybe this sets the stage for a warmer period after November 18th . and then a warmer December possibly. On a positive note models did predict the displacment and that is a good sign. Still wondering about all wave 1 actvity , and if by early to mid December things change, or show signs of changing with the NAO. Also, after the dislodge of super cold into the US later this week some say that gives the potential for extreme cold to grow over the pole in Siberia and that might be tapped into the next time there is a PV displacement or a cross polar flow develops in December or early Jan.

Wow, I have to think if I ever saw it modeled this cold in November around here this far out. The animation is drowl worthy. If this was middle Jan with snow on ground I can only imagine the temps. Oh, I laugh when I see the text Ben uses to describe things, "coldest air on the globe " :-) .

The SAI forecast for NA still impress me : Looking forward today to the various updates form the Euro, like the 46 day EPS .

I await with eager anticipation to see your analog blends / weighting in your seasonal forecast.

To explain HM really takes a PHD but basically he did a series ot tweets regarding wave 1 activity in November amd measured by amplitude ( how strong ) against the following month of December and the NAO . He also filitered his data further by looking at the MEI >0 and that brought him 20 results. I believe his last update a few days ago indicated the wave 1 was coming in 6 to 10 days so now thats 2 to 7 days and he stated it needs to keep coming and and be stronger. I just read the post above about the positive NAO at + 1 or greater for 7months in a row. Ouch ! Not sure what it will take for a long duration -NAO phase this winter.

Yeah it looks like a deep cold outbreak coming up near later next week. This looks to be driven by the PV disruption forecasted a couple weeks ago. The AO and the NAO both going negative again in the days ahead, for both this is the second dip into negative territory. Then later in the month there is one camp taking the AO positive and another camp taking it back down. Surprisingly there is more consensus to keep the NAO closer to neutral or declining again. However there seems to be recovery on the PV after this minor disruption and at this point the pattarn later in the month ( after mid-month ) possibly seems to want to go more zonal. So, maybe we go to a back and forth pattern after the 17 th or 18 th. The CFS , I know it is not good has some subtle support that the higher lattitudes might be changing down the road, to what would appear a warmer period corresponding with the zonal pattern on some models. This is being supported somewhat at this time by the Euro. Not sure what this means for December yet. Of course many mets have a warner than normal, or normal December temp-wise. Of interest to mention for us here in the MidAtlantic is the NAO. HM had mentioned earlier this week that a wave 1 in November has a higher correlation to a December NAO. And a step further a wave 2 in November for whatever reason, has no correlation.

The longer it lasts, snow cover, the more likely it will continue to grow and expand. Days still getting shorter, and then there is the feedback mechanism as well. Even if by chance the Western areas of North America lose any snow cover, all indications seem to indicate that snow cover and depth , both important, grow all month. The NA SAI is very good indeed.

You expect the rise to continue with the SOI now negative? Also, any associations between the trending colder waters near the Phillipines and the NAO in the winter? I believe somewhere in this thread I read that either warmer or colder waters in this region has some sort of relationship with the upcoming winter NAO phase, maybe it was Raindancewx, not sure.

Wow to this. Wonder the impact to the NAO long-term from this event. The record is from 1976, imagine that.

Exactly, DT is the one that calls out JB a lot. He ( DT ) must like what he sees. I am awaiting his more indepth video. As to be honest , DT and for that matter JB, are in the general GROUP think camp so far. Many varied and great mets are callig for a decent winter and more than half are going with the idea of the back loaded winter. I believe DT stated, if my memory serves me correct, that 7 of the last 10 March months have been colder and snowier. I can see that, summer seems to extend into late October and winter lasts longer. Oh and DT's outlook included the month of March 2019 as well.

From what I hear, a low end moderate may be appearing more likely recently, as in the last week or so. That plus location of the warmest SSTs is very good, especially for us in this region.

Also, the location of the warmest SSTs in the Pac is prime as well, as you know. Things are progressing nicely. I read on the New England forum that Typhoon Yutu was a big factor in the rise in the SSTs the last week out there . Also, the rise in SSTs came too in a month of mostly positive SOI values, October, that it . However, today the SOI index was negative. And, add one last thing about the Nino, in a ocean - atmosphere manner, the atmospheric responses as of last week was still a combo of Nina and El Nino , per Bluewave. He thought this was possibly causing some issues in the recent drastic modeling chages in the 6 to 10 day I believe.