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Seems the background state supports this and and the GEFS has been doing well. If anything, as I posted in previous days, it appears that these warming events are growing in depth and duration, the closer we get to the present, at least so far that seems to be case.

I thought I read from Ryan Maue that at times the FV3 was at times neck and neck with the Euro op in verification scoring. Whether that was over a short period of time or in a certain background state, not sure. It seems at the minimum it is better than the GFS, I also think @WxUSAF might have commented on it as well that it is somewhat better.

If anything December will be interesting to see what transpires up North . Seems the wave 2 activity is forecasted to increase.

Continuing the theme, colder, warming delayed and or muted. Maybe looking ahead beyond this is a shorter period of moderation. I think any strat impact is still not going to show it's hands yet in the models for later December. Of note as well are the solar winds that HM talked about last night. 2009 was such an anomaly. But, I see we are trending down nicely the last 12 months.

I stumbled upon this just now, but read about this issue earlier today from @Typhoon Tip in the New England forum. I say beware of the Euro weeklies because of this.

Great update Isotherm, makes a lot of sense! And maybe your progression could lead to a snowy period around the holidays as we come up towards the later part of the month.

A follow up to the early and mid part of December .

Nice animation, looking at this for sensible weather I watch near the 11th to 16 th.

Snow cover continues to impress and continues to pile up too acrosss North Amercia ! Considering how slow things started out, very remarkable to see this !

Ventrice always pulls out some interesting Pac stuff

Makes sense ! Maybe the best months for total snowfall could be Jan and March. Anything is possible. I like March 1958 by the way.

Interesting

All good points psu. Question, why do you think the MJO which looked great 24 to 48 ago ( was forecasted going into phase 8 then 1 and then 2 I believe ) has suddenly changed and is now forecasted to go onto the COD ? Puzzling ......

To Russia with Love Hopefully in Jan, Feb or March we get our turn !

Thanks Bob, most long range mets I follow are saying no way it can stay there, and it is not the end to numerous good winter forecasts. So, I hope they are correct. Still, if we really warm up, it will be a negative for some seasonal forecasts that had December in the East either cold or normal. Time will tell.......or like you said Bob, we will know more in about 2 weeks :-)

Ah true. I hope it comes to reality. At least blocking is across all modeling, a good sign.

Bob you think this is simple par for the course, as we have been cold for a while, and a bit snowy, now time for a relax. Do you view this crap Pac setting up as a means to an end ? Like we need to have a relax and warm up and maybe late December shapes up better ? El Nino Decembers are hardly ever great. Just based on November, I would naturally guess this December turns out warmer. Maybe not the entire month, looks cold early and then again maybe late month we flip. How things transpire during Dec. may lead to a colder and stormier Jan too. Not sure how a 2 week or more warm spell in December effects any forecasted " typical " Jan thaw. Maybe we roll into a period of cold and snow that lasts a while. We might be in uncharted waters as so few analogs really fit this winter coming up.

Hmmm, nice to see more attempts coming at the PV. Maybe in time a more robust series of waves. As John states the anomaly has been increasing in forecasts. I like the word anomaly, it reminds me of the Matrix :-)

This is a new model to me. I have not heard of it before. Ii would not be surprised to see March being cold and snowy. Almost seems like a general month to month retro of blocking from Greenland then shifting West in time, with the ideal month here portrayed to be March.

By keeping the PV weaker than normal and prone to displacement(s), and further weakening it can encourage colder air to move South towards us and also encourage a -AO. The opposite would be a very, very cold and powerful PV locking up the Cold up North near the pole and keeping the lower lattitudes generally warmer. The stronger the PV gets the harder to weaken it I think. Also, the more early season hits on the PV the better, as that tends to keep the PV from reaching a mature state. Some of these events as HM talks about and others are known at times as precursor events that in the past have shown a connection to future PV events such as weakenings, displacements, minor and major warming events as well.

Keeping the pressure on .......

@C.A.P.E. Do you recall last year at this time I think the Euro seasonal did well, but the weeklies once again were eratic and bouncing around? Maybe place more faith in the Euro seasonals vs the weeklies.

I believe it was 02-03 where things progressed so exactly that HM was able to hit windows of snowfall and threats far out in the distance. Speaking of the MJO and SSTs I watched Weatherbell this AM. and saw the SST profile West of Aussie and it is still the same with the colder SSTs. Also, saw an animation on the Nino region SSTs, and while you hear about the warmer anomalies are shifting East the actual SST warmer temps and sub surface depth has the real focus still being Central Pac based. So, those areas are looking good.

You know there have been times where after a warm-up in the first to second weeks of December there was a marked transition to colder and significant snowfall in the third and fourth weeks of December. Not saying that will happen, but timing is going to be interesting as we roll over the pattern and see what the weather does closer to the holidays.

There goes the snow cover with that look, and if so, a major set back. However, I doubt the warmer / ugly pattern would hold, even if it were to develop based on the Nino. Plus, there are some hits on the PV and other things going on, no need to be concened yet. I did post here last week that many time the models that are going cold for December will reverse when we get closer and correct to a more climo based neutral to warmer December, simply because of Nino and the past history.