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frd

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  1. frd
    Thanks for sharing the link and research, and it seems there is a role based on your papers. The question at this time are the implications for our areas in general. Maybe more clarity will arrive in a couple weeks.
  2. frd
    So, there has been a rather significant decline with regards to snowcover in north America. Interesting look on the chart, if you simply focus on the years which in Nov and Dec were above normal you see the overall trend for snow cover those years to remain elevated, at least through Dec, to Jan. I do not see a year in the mix there that has experienced such a drastic decline after such a robust start, except maybe one. Also, you will see ups and downs so a year that declined a couple months later rebounds again above the average. This decline may simply be associated with the pattern leading to the SSWE, I do not think it is a main concern. I bet we rebound later. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html
  3. frd
    @bluewave another nice observation, and I am a bit bummed about losing snowcover , but I bet we rebound going forward. A question, is not the very reason for the warm up to a degree, and the decline in snow cover, the very pattern that has and will continue to put pressure on the SPV? I read from HM and Isotherm that tropical forcing with regards to weakening and disturbing the PV are just as important as other players. It seems to me the precursor pattern you see in the NE Pac and the Atlantic are all contributing. I read research about the precursor pattern matching what has happened so far. So, do you believe the pattern now and for the next week or two are contributing to the strat warming and the possible SSWE? Thanks as always !!
  4. frd
    Over-night runs continue the theme with the strat progress. Things seem to be on target.
  5. frd
    I am seeing the zonal winds are starting to trend lower now after weeks and weeks with little decrease. PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago More The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 21.3 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -16.4 m/s 1998
  6. frd
    tru dat............ the hammer cometh
  7. frd
    The GFS is just a bit too fast in the weakening process, otherwise, game still on.
  8. frd
    Updated CFSv2
  9. frd
    Well regardless, the seasonals see something positive about Jan with regards to snowfall. However, for our region I like the UKmet and Euro better the other two. The Meteo France upon a closer look, seems below normal to me so, I am not sure how the headline form Ben is actually correct for our region, for Boston yeah looks good. Well in his defense, he did say the NE. I do not see any big snows in the South. So, maybe this means maybe a Miller B evolution, not really sure.
  10. frd
    Better than no consistency at all I guess.
  11. frd
    Coming from you that is indeed good news. I still feel this will work its way into the pattern, but it does take time. Whether it drives big changes or only enhances a "better " pattern, well I am not sure yet. But, like you said, it is real and it is happening.
  12. frd
    @bluewave I was not aware so many December since 2000 were so warm near the solstice. I did have a question, do you feel once the forcing shifts out of the Maritime and into better phases we will turn it to colder? Do you think we ever get real coupling with the atmosphere and the ocean? Your post about this a few days ago was spot on. Such as were the cases in other Nino years ( under similiar background states )
  13. frd
    When we had our cold days it was dry for 15 days in a row, then the warmth and the rain returns. The grass is a swamp again and no heat to dry it up. Then again not really prime climo still, but when the moisture returns in Jan to Feb I hope it is an icebox here. I long for a cold storm , with snow falling at 12 degrees F.
  14. frd
    Yeah we will see. Weather forecasting is a humbling experience. I feel like a tech savvy James Bond villian is targeting his weather weapon on the snow weenies, creating warmth and world turmoil . Ha ha
  15. frd
    You know what Bob this to me is a bit surprising , I thought up until a week ago that the warm up would be muted and we be back in the game. Many things had me feeling like this, such as cold was winning out more than warmth, snow cover advance, etc. I am not sure what to think now. I do have one idea though. I feel we run-up to much above normal in December, similiar to early October and then a sudden flip into deep winter, such as what took place in early November. Just a feeling. I think the odds of an active snow fall period during the snap back is likely. If indeed the strat warm up puts us in the game maybe Jan delivers more snow than Feb., just speculation. It seems you can only pull back so much until a counter pattern pops back in. We all know the players are there to deliver for us eventually.
  16. frd
    Actually I think even if the best pattern of the winter sets in say Jan 15 th 20 th you could have a period of cold that storminess that lasts for a while. Even when the SPV sets up shop on the other side of the pole after a displacement there have been times in the past where it has been very cold here, with a long duration of snow cover on the ground.
  17. frd
    @Bob Chill Bob, what do you see here? I ike your opinion. The JMA does not match, I thought, the more ideal Euro seasonals and UkMET seasonals, but maybe that's me. I see the blocking still there and shifting in time, but what do you think about the general implications and placements of the anomalies regarding our back yards ? ( Miller B's , vs Miller As, NJ clippers, versus over-running ) Thanks !
  18. frd
    So like this is not the first warm December Yeah baby like like Dejavu :-( Great post by Ben
  19. frd
    @psuhoffman This has happened before as you can see below, but looking at the dips it seems the drop this time is possibly a bit deeper this time moving forward. Max drops 1 to 1.5 Then hopefully we bounce back up after we leave the Maritime forcing state. Sure is messing up the El Nino.
  20. frd
    of interest 1 more reply New conversation Christopher Russell‏ @Christo42026449 22h22 hours ago More Replying to @DrAHButler Hay Doc quick question if a ssw were to occur would it be able to Trump the mjo I know it's supposed be going into phase 5 at least according to the European modelrect message New conversation Amy H Butler‏ @DrAHButler 22h22 hours ago More For east USA- Probably depends a lot on strength of mjo and if there's downward coupling. SSW impacts could be greater on short timescales if downward coupling is substantial. Hard to tell yet if that's the case for this event. 0 replies0 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet Like 2 Direct message
  21. frd
    From @bluewave this is a great read here. I had to share it here : This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia.
  22. frd
    I know I always post on the strat and I do admit it is not the one all, or all centric point, but still can yield sensible weather effects here and in the NH. Sometimes where as you know can be in question. We will see. We are getting closer to real times events up there. Maybe it ups the ante when it does get colder or maybe not. I think all the cards for this winter are still somewhat hidden from view.
  23. frd
    I will say this, the month that was/is averaging below normal will end above normal and those with a cold December will not verify. However the for many calling for plus 2 to plus 4 like Matt at the CWG did well.
  24. frd
    The models seem to be struggling a lot, and the play down of the cold from the weeklies seem to be lining up with the long range models now. Frankly, yes it makes sense that many Nino Decembers are warm, but this is a strange Nino to me . More Nina at many times, and the SOI now at plus 16. Seems to be many opposing indicies causing stress to the modeling. I did bring up a month ago that many times predicted cold on the long range in Nino Decembers will trend warmer the closer you get to December and while in December for that matter as well. And, for various reasons, to more closely resemble typical warm Nino backgroud states. Also, I know there is a lag from any strat warming most times but not really seeing that yet. Any ideas why you think the models are having such a difficult time?
  25. frd
    Seems you have been programming the weeklies to to a T to fit your seasonal script. :-) But, I hope your transition to cold and snow and KUs comes along as you have in your seasonal forecast. I still cant believe the weeklies and something is going to give with the strat warming. The Pipers at the Gates of Dawn will come a calling in mid Jan. I feel when the smoke clears and the teles line up a very favorable pattern will come along and lock in . If not blame it on the feeble Nino.
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