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I think this is new possibly from two days ago. Not sure.

I almost think that using snow cover to our North this year over Eastern Canada ( above normal ) puts us in snow climo maybe two weeks earlier than normal. Related to a degree, the direct discharge of arctic air on Turkey Day is so cold partly because of its path, but also because of the vast and deep snow cover over SE Canada. May also see very strong High pressure systems set up winter to our NW because of this, and similar episodes of deep CAD that the models may under forecast at range. Like the last event. So a positive for over running events. Some seasonal models depict coastal tracks but some also look like SW to ENE over running systems that surprisingly seem not to make it above Philly to NY City line.. Maybe NAO induced block related, although I am sure there will be some Miller A systems.

One thing for sure, the El Nino is not going away quickly. I tend to feel this will impact us in March as well. Still feel the winter extends this year to March with cold and snow chances, like it has more frequently the last 4 to 5 years.

Sorry, meant to say a quicker transition to a +PNA. If so, maybe that helps us in future runs.

Did you notice a trend possibly of more Western ridging ?

I only posted a link to it in the winter thread, but yeah looks great. Did you see the new Ukmet seasonal ? Very cold. The precip panel I would like to see more of a positive, but maybe the visual on the map is based on the total of the time period and wshed out or maybe the storm track is South ?? For sure though, it looks even colder than the last one. darker blues over us.

If you wanted some more good vibes check out Don S outlook for the winter, very high snowfall prediction and cold ! I guess this should have gone into the winter thread, not sure though. I tend to think of Don as a sensible and conservative forecaster. So when he forecasts along these lines of snow and cold, well it adds confidence to me at least that the coming winter will indeed be good.

And oh boy, that 0 run was frigid !

Wow, the JAMSTEC has updated and it is very cold indeed, this has fallen into the camp of the Ukmet, Euro and others. Actually by scale the surface temps look very cold. The precip panel harder to read , appears above normal in the Missisipi Valley and off the East Coast . The Sea surface anomalies show warmth in the NE Pac and around Greenland too . Interesting cold blob off the Mid Atlantic Coast , that in time only deepens and extends further East across the Atlantic in time. I extended the look only for entertainment and it shows a cold spring and a cool summer too The seasurface forecasts for March to May and from June to August still hold the the general SST profiles from right now only slowing decaying the NE warm pool while the El Nino signature continues , but the Modaki index falls off after mid December http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Ventrice is hopeful

Heard the GEFS is beatiing the pants out of the EPS in the other forum. We saw that here too, when we talked about the higher lattitude blocking the GEFS had but not so much the EPS Did you see that maybe the AO and the NAO both might go down to - 4 or more ? Crazy , The Day After Tomorrow is coming soon :-)

Thanks , looking forward to them.

Are the weeklies generated by the 0 run last night ? If so they should be better than Monday's, as the overnight EPS improved the NAO block and progression.

Thanks

CFS locking in , ha ha , that is funny :-)

Snow cover, and SAI, the next week to two weeks - still gaining rapidly and adding depth up North. Asia and Europe too Continuing the trends from October 20 th At this rate snow cover is promoting cold and pushing the boundaries South in time. This opens the door to deep arctic cross polar flow in time if things line up correctly see here :

Well, I am not sure about that maybe psu knows , but Eric is excited.....

A question please, do minor changes here have a lag effect to the winter ? ( I know sometimes SST patterns change in the Pac, etc., but to have an immediate impact on the atmosphere may take months I think from what I read here ) So with that in mind do you see anything dramatic on the horizon, or are we basically set with the Modaki from a winter outcome view point? Thanks

Looking at very late November a significant arctic air mass is building over the NW territories , the Yukon, etc. High pressure building there up to 1055mb Also strong High over Greenland, seems to have retrograded at over 1050mb, maybe more. The EPS has trended stronger too with the NAO block as well. This is happening along with a robust STJ in the background. Early December has promise.

Thanks for the update. I read your other post about the strong negative NAOs in November of previous years, and the following winters, was very eye opening. Do you think this reinforces the idea of a general averaged -NAO during the upcoming season ?

Yep, and the below may be relevant to us as well.

I forgot Allen, RaleighWx, went with a warmer December call in his Winter seasonal, he sent this out earlier :

I love this look. Such a pretty view.

Wonder if the pattern of the MJO continues like it has, meaning it skips the warmest phases and instead heads back to the COD andf then reappears and then exits in the more favorable colder phases. I think it does. Also the SST pattern is unchanged West of Aussie so hoping it does.

I would even venture to say, with so good a look no mixing issues to worry about. Plus, any warm up after this week is looking shorter and shorter, looks like we go right into a duration of deep winter possibly, as many factors point to it. On a related note, I really feel the snow cover in NA and the SAI in the NH and Siberia are driving the cold and combined with the favorable PAC , well it is like a perfect storm for snow and cold late month and in December here on the East Coast . I believe Eric just posted something along those lines, regarding the warm-up I mean.