frd
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Everything posted by frd
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I told you its coming !!!!
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I like this ! Please, some cold and some moisture for our region. Guessing maybe we even see MJO 8 , 1 and 2 late month
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Euro Weeklies As expected, later December looking better
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Thanks Isotherm! It certainly appears that we are firmly on the road you are forecasting strat-wise. More amd more signs, and stronger indications as well ,that the progged events, Wave 1 and 2, indicated several weeks ago are only increasiing in forecasted outcomes as we get closer in time. Many people feel that the incorrect SPV displacement could yield the coldest and snowiest sensible weather towards Europe and Eurasa. As seen this AM on MichaelVentrice's Twitter feed. From your previous reply below , in regards to displacements , you indicated that displacement favors North America. Yet, I still hear some folks stating the opposite. I imagine there might be confusion over a tilted , or partial displacemrnt versus a SPV displaced completely away from the NA continent. ( As mentioned below ) I will be closely following to see how things play out, very fascinating stuff going on right now.
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Someone mentioned Weds. yesterday as did DT as well. About potential for snow shows and even squalls I see HM mentioning it today as well. When DT mentioned it yesterday is was more so for VA and areas close, by but HM talking about a Norlun-ish set up ...... So, keep an eye out for Weds. >>>
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I believe this is connected to strat wave activity mid month
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I enjoy your posts showme. Thought I share this from the NY City thread as Don S . always has great insights too. this is from DonS @donsutherland1 keep in mind his post was from about 10 hours ago. and he is focusing on NYC. but interesting in that his comments below revealed an interesting best match . the data is prior to December 20 th in all cases This is what he said: The best match for the forecast 500 mb height anomalies is the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm. The following snowstorms dumped 6" or more snow at Raleigh prior to December 20: December 2-3, 1896: 7.5" December 12-13, 1917: 7.1" December 17, 1930: 7.0" December 11, 1958: 9.1" Snowfall for select cities from those storms was as follows: December 2-3, 1896: Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10.5" New York City: None Philadelphia: None Washington, DC: None
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Bob, some of the things I read about the progression various features from Dec 18 th on would lend support to the improving Atlantic side and as we get closer to the end of December we may also get an improving Pac look as well. Also, as per @bluewave we might towards the end of December get the MJO back to the favorable phases 8 1 and 2. Meanwhile, per the new update today from @Isotherm , things improve blocking wise as various positive changes happen up North. Ray was still going with his original call of colder after the 18 th to the 19th of the month and my interpretation was later in the month stormy as well. @HM had some things up pointing to the precursor pattern for a weakening PV on his feed and overall if these positive strat forecast hold things should be busy here later in the month and into Jan. Seeing some long range blocking on the models is indeed a good thing.
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Not to be funny, but this may come down to the wire next weekend. I expect improvements over the next couple of days, but ultimatley it will be the NAM giving us the most likely outcome 24 to 48 before the start. :-) Back to reality, really enjoy seeing the slow but steady changes out in the long range. Liking the later part of December for cold and snow oppurtunities. Maybe we might even cycle around and get back into the favorable phases of the MJO deeper into our climo period. Meanwhile the PV continues to get assaulted, and by mid-month things might turn very interesting.
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Excellent update Isotherm ! Things are progressing well for December so far based on your initial seasonal forecast. Just a quick question, I hear some strat expert talking about the continued assault on the PV from wave 1 and wave 2. And how if history repeats itself based on studies the current precursor pattern might really weaken and displace PV soon. My question is, do you foresee a possible SWE taking place as well ? And if so, what implications would that have on your seasoinal forecast ? Bear in mind I know we are not dependent on a SWE for the sensible weather progression you have forecasted. Alas, I find the mention of this possibility interesting. I hear TonyWells@scotlandwx talking about a possible SWE at the end of December, and I also hear HM mentioning that if the PV weakens, as he thinks it, it could open the door to some very nasty winter weather at the end of December here. Thanks Isotherm.
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Actually for various reasons the past several years we have seen snow events miss to our South that never moved back North, and we have seen storms crush the coastal plain like Ocen City, MD, Cape May, NJ., and Dewey Beach, and skim far Eastern Long Island. Each event had its own reasons. Not sure how this will play out, but a solution that favors NC and VA. were mentioned yesterday by some mets. Just because it is December does not mean it has to move back North. With a gun to my head I prefer at this range for the system be focused South of us, as in many cases over a 5 day lead it will move North, but @psuhoffman stated that is happening less the last 20 years or so. I guess because modeling has improved.
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Yoda he did mention this further down - from HM , "I've been on the suppression-side to this, and I'm thinking today's trends are one step in that direction."
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I like the new FV3 but I have to ask myself which model has the best ability to handling this challenging set up? HM sums it nicely comparing side by side
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Perfect for the time being, I take it !
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Faster arrival = colder and more snow Euro vs GFS slower, warmer . So far not sure about the GFS CAD looks underestimated, thats cold stuff
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Nice to see the synoptic pattern supporting the modeled outcome from the Euro ensembles and the OP. Snow cover by the end of next week might be nuts. Already I think NA and the US are setting records for snow cover. Seems the upcoming winter is intent on laying down it's cover early. I love seeing the snow cover so extensive. It holds promise for later in the month too if the relax is indeed brief.
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Thanks !
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Hey CAPE any idea what he means here> the monthly ? You think he means the weeklies from last night ?
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Okay I'm gonna need somebody in here to be an HM translator...I don't understand about 80% of his tweets, lol Basically the wheels are in motion for a return to colder weather right after the brief warm up. So all in all the relax of cold will not be a long span of time. So good news from HM
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Seems what you are saying follows this progression nicely :
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Awesome !!!!!
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Bob, do you know when the Euro and Ukmet seasonals are updated again ? I want to say near the 5 th of the month maybe ? Funny thing is if the bullish euro seasonal holds court again ( 4 th month in a row ) it simply makes sense to focus less on the jumpy weeklies. I know the pattern evolution, etc. is of high interest on them, but they do seem to have a few biases at play so far.
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Based on the conversation and his other posts I think he means, bad as in deep winter,cold and snow. and think he is referring to the end of December. Almost seems that he shares the same weather/pattern drivers, globally and strat-wise, as does Tom, @Isotherm . If he and Tom are correct expect a very short relaxation period and then a stormy, white holiday period and beyond That was my interpretation.
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Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this . I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) . I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass "
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Back to weather for a second :-) This is all I needed to hear, now Isotherm and HM on the same page..............
