frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Well, what about December 2014 then ? I know you know this , but most Decembers since 2010 have been warm near Christmas. A couple by a lot.
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The cold air pressing form the North and the NAO domain may help us more than meets the eye, as we await for the Pac to reshuffle and the -EPO cold push to arrive. A gradient pattern for sure like you said. Not set in stone, but the looks to our far North in the upper levels may improve from East to West versus West to East. I think there is still hope for the period 23 to 26 th. I don't buy the GFS 588 ridge South of Florida. But, hey like @WxUSAF said, maybe a WAR and a very cold - EPO push might work later in the month.
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Ray, thanks. I know you addressed this in your seasonal forecast but wanted your updated thoughts as there has been more data coming out lately about the strat. Can the strat overwhelm the Nino in respect that it could push the jet further South and do some crazy things? ( stalls, loops , etc ) Oh, and I quickly checked 1969 as one of those dates and there was an amazing storm in early March, see here : A surface weather analysis of the storm when near its peak intensity on the morning of March 8, 1969 The March 1969 nor'easter was an extratropical cyclone that moved into the Gulf of Mexico on March 5, moving through southern Georgia, then deepened as it moved along the lower Eastern Seaboard, before swinging wide of New England and Atlantic Canada. Heavy snows fell across eastern Maryland, southern Delaware, and Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts. It was a strong system, with maximum sustained winds of 80 kn (150 km/h) a central pressure close to 950 hPa (28 inHg) while south of Atlantic Canada. The system then moved into the far northern Atlantic Ocean while splitting into two low pressure areas on March 10. Evolution[edit] Late on March 5, a frontal wave moved offshore Galveston, Texas. The system moved along the Gulf coast on March 6.[1] Gale-force winds were confined to behind its prefrontal squall line on March 6. The cyclone moved along the Florida-Georgia border with a central pressure down to 995.0 hectopascals (29.38 inHg). The low tracked up the Eastern Seaboard from the late on the 6th through the morning of the 7th while strengthening quickly, with its central pressure falling to 969.0 hectopascals (28.61 inHg), then with storm-force winds offshore Cape Charles, Virginia. The cyclone tracked offshore New England. By the morning of the 8th, the cyclone's center pressure had fallen to 950.0 hPa (28.05 inHg) while the system developed maximum sustained winds of 80 knots (150 km/h) south of Newfoundlan
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Ray, besides the MEI value, what is your rationale for the Miller B evolutions you see ? And, why do you think there will be mainly Miller B's ? ( just from past winter similarities? ) Does blocking enter the equation at all, or lack there of ? I myself think we see a variety of over-running events in my area, plus a mix of Miller B's and A's.
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Yeah, will be interesting, I do like seeing the EPO trending back down in a few days, and then near the 23 rd goes negative. Have to see how long to get cold back in here after that. Might be a few days, could be a week. No clear answer yet.
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Thanks. The models last night reinforced your call on post Christmas looking better and better for tracking. Looking forward to weeklies tonight for that time period. Eh, have to pass the time over the next 10 or so days. Still impressed by this cold every day I step outside in the morning. At least the bugs are gone, well except for the two stink bugs that hitched a ride inside our home on our Christmas tree we cut down. ( Did not notice notice them until I heard my daughter's scream ) Other than that pretty much a deep winter look and feel the last couple mornings, minus the snow cover :-(
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I have not seen this brought up yet, but I have noticed it in the previous releases from October all the way to now with the seasonal models. When you look at the Euro seasonal and some other models the main above average precip anamolies are all to the South of us. I am NOT saying the look is dry but the main +1 and + 2 deviatons are over the TN Valley, extending onto NC, and SC. etc. New England itself looked very dry. May not mean a thing once we get further into the season. But, when I read your post CAPE it reminded me.
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Over the past few days it appears the evolution at the top is going to favor our area moving forward in time. When you get to the end of this long animation you can see that.
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The nice thing is the current global drivers, El Nino profile, the seasonals, snow cover , the strat, sensible weather tendencies so far, etc,. all support the pattern forecasted in the long range. Few years have as much good concensus coming up as we currently have now. It makes it easier for me to accept the longer range modeling. Another cool thing is that since early November cold seems to be winning out and storms have been happening frequently.
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Andrea is very conservative, but I really like the continued progression to the end of the month here. Amost wondering if we see a speeding up of the patten change to colder after the brief relax period. I think we do. Heard some mets are thinking the second week of Jan. for a better pattern to set in, but I am not in that camp. Actually, I like the odds of a major cold storm in the first 5 to 1o days of Jan, if not sooner.
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Some AFDs were as of a few days ago calling this storm and the predicted snowfall to be a generational snow event. I imagine in some areas it truly is. Add the time of year, and it is an epic.
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I am really beginning to think things could really get going here after December 26 th. The progression at the top looks very good and instead of forecasts for PV assaults lessening they only continue to grow. Heat it up
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Ray, do you buy the progression on the weeklies ? Or, do you feel they are too quick with the good look that they show at the end of Dec. ( starting the 24 th to 26 th ) and in Jan ? Also, when the pattern changes to a more favorable for the East , do you expect it to lock in, or still be variable ? Aren't we still waiting on the El Nino coupling to take effect. Looking back at some winters, to a degree similiar to this one, the good pattern did lock in for about a 30 to 45 day period. I know your seasonal by memory, so I know your winter forecast, but just wondering any thoughts about the evolution you see versus the weeklies. I know for fact you were never in the camp for a stellar super cold and snowy December. Oh, and there seems to be a considerable amount of long term agreement about week 5 , even though that is ages away. The GEFS, Euro weeklies and CFSv2 seem to show the same pattern. Thanks
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Hmm, this is without the pending assault pn the SPV
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I hope in Jan 2019, when we are in storm mode awaiting our HECS we get the same kind of consistency , ha :-)
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Careful, don't be tempted by the dark side.
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Incredible actually when you think about it, as was posted in this thread the GEFS, EPS, monthly, and now the CFSv2 agreeing at very long leads on a potentail great pattern for East Coast snow lovers. My goodness, look at the North Pole :-)
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Without question the biggest + EPO spike since the late summer I think. With the MJO in phases 3 to 5 , however keep in mind the dive in the AO coming up and the strat warming and PV assaults continuing. In time I expect the EPO to trend downward.
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Prepare to dive PNA certainly not bad
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Good points and even if the immediate coastal areas don't score areas inland might be cold enough. Seems Ventrice ( undercutting risks ) is echoing your thoughts here as well. and HM too ( storms will be talked about next two weeks )
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Thanks for posting them. I would be awesome to lock into a favorable pattern for our area and have it last a few weeks, and of course, score a few time too. It would be party time.
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I almost feel this is a outcome of PV displacement and recent assaults on it, but I am speculating really. It is unusual like you said for us to miss out a storm like this. Sure NYC miss out yes, Boston certainly, but DC , hard to understand. But as you describe it is the continuous rotation of vortices coming down and up. I am sure someone has the correct answer as to the ultimate cause of the displaced vortex.
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I saw some crazed solutions dump snow and more snow on DC and then rain on Boston :-) I watch next weekend for strange outcomes.
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I heard week 5 is like WOW
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Like I was saying about snow
