Jump to content

frd

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,711

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Hmm. I take the weeklies with a grain of salt at times . So, is Eric saying warm, wet then cold, dry. And what about the consistency here. Maybe if someone can post them to get a better handle. I am growing a ltitle more interested that we might get a chance at something though prior to Christmas in the snow department . Getting back to the precip for later in Dec and Jan., and wet versus dry, @bluewave had a most interesting post today regarding how the weather pattern was almost La Nina like vs Nino recently, and stated that the SOI has been positive and the ocean and atmosphere are not really coupled to yield the full benefit of a El Nino. Will be interesting to say the least to see how things play out.
  2. frd
    Cool, we will see a bit. Glad for your optimism. You are right, life is to short. My wife would concur.
  3. frd
    Thanks Don, appreciate your thoughts !
  4. frd
    Hey psu you think near and beyond this time frame we start to see an improved Pacific ? I see we are going to go through MJO 3 to 5 so warmer, ( 50 maybe mid month ) and then hopefully back to colder and stormier later. repeat the progression again. It seems we never really lose the Atlantic side, but it would be better if the Pac improved further. If any indication from previous years like this one, once we lock into a better Pac hopefully that stays for a while. Thinking we are not fully seeing the changes taking place now, and in the next 15 days, at the top from the SPV displacement. blocking might go a bit crazy but my fear is I hope not cold and dry. Seasonals say don't worry about moisture though. And tonight we will see if the weeklies remain robust for cold and precip like they did this past Monday for late month and Jan
  5. frd
    Epic post Don, really enjoyed it. If I may ask a question, with the global patterns you see ahead and the Central Pac based El Nino do you think we might be challenging any long standing cold records, either max but more so mins ? I ask this based on the fact that we could eventually experience cross polar flow combined with a loading background state and a severe -EPO, and -AO as well. I have also noticed the expansive snow cover across NA., and the occurrence so far of some rather cold outbreaks early in the season, that set records. Hoping we do not go dry and cold, need some snow too Don :-) Thanks and all the best with your forecast !!
  6. frd
    Your post is like therapy for some here, myself included, makes me feel great inside! Thanks :-) Oh, I am also pumped for some biggies in the Jan to March time frame. Bring it !!!!
  7. frd
    Some forget how cold it has been and the sudden flip from summer to winter. I still take this and even a normal winter. Even though we are going to have a dry period coming up and warmer after early next week I think when the chips are ready to fall again folks might remember this winter for the amount of snow in a short amount of time and also the possiblity of a long drawn out winter that goes deep into March. I am still hopeful of a good winter. I mean it is December and in a El Nino year sometimes we score here with snow while other times we do not.
  8. frd
    Another great post ! Been watching the SOI myself and I am puzzled by its long streak of positives and how the atmosphere looks Nina vs Nino. Do you think we will see them couple Ocean + atmosphere soon? I read that seemed liklely to happen early this month ( the coupling ) but I see no indications yet of that . bluewave do you see any negative consequences regarding this ( the coupling ) when it comes to seasonal forecasts calling for snowier and colder than normal ? Thanks !
  9. frd
    JMA weeklies show the potential for busy weather underneath in this set up, which in time I hope improves further to an even colder and snowier pattern.
  10. frd
    Mentioned this earlier about the role of the PV. Looking at this view you can certainly see how it crushes the storm from making a significant move North.
  11. frd
    Busy at work just checking in, I thought the Euro was going move North. Still seems firm in a Southern solution but what got my attention is something I hardly see mentioned , at least in this case as to why the storm is staying South. I mean I heard the about the NS vorts, the confluence, high pressure and the western ridge too but then I came across some sort of involvement with the SPV . HM was mentioning the " The trough down 60W is part of the full vortex and all of its associated cyclones in the troposphere." Seems that when you look at the SPV in 3D you can see this better. This is the first time I read about this and the 3D look at the vortex really adds a nice visual depicting how it can be formed in odd shapes and changes in height, for example it can be whole at the upper levels and split like a pair of pants at the bottom. You can see it better below in the animations or visit the thread as I don't want to post too many of these. There is involvement here with the pattern and the storm and this is acting a untraditional block I think I guess this sums it up here from HM , " Looking at the big picture, this isn't the most ideal way to slow down the "50-50 low" and suppress a coastal storm (North Atlantic blocking is the best recipe for that). However, you can visualize how this full structure would help to slow down the tropospheric-portion somewhat"
  12. frd
    I value HM's calls on the short term and the long term a lot ! He is very good !! But, I feel even for him making any calls abouts limits/edges is still just speculation at this point still. We are still 5 days to near the event in our region. I understand what he means , but we will see I guess. Many pieces are still not sampled and sampled correctly at that, as posted previously. If he is correct that DC is the ultimate Nothern point then kudos to Anthony. I am sure he is keeping a close watch on his areas, Philly to Trenton, etc. Disclaimer he did say " for the time being "
  13. frd
    This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open. Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman . < The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. >
  14. frd
    Maybe someone with WxBell Access can post but, it appears from JB's release just now that for the 4 th month in a row the updated Euro seasonal looks very, very good. I guess Joe is saying below the new Euro seasonal looks like the Pioneer model.
  15. frd
    Good observation I hope the positive trends continue. And, in this area you have to weight the Euro better when it comes to forecasting the future position and extent of the West Coast ridge.
  16. frd
    Seems some changes out West were in part the cause for the clusters moving a bit more North it seems.
  17. frd
    Simon Lee puts out some good stuff too, here is a view of deceleration of the polar night jet . And, its not about a SSW it is really just continued assualt to the SPV. All signs point to the end of the month when we start to feel some of the sensible impacts. Or, at the very least changing drivers of the pattern, which I hope fit the seasonal models .
  18. frd
    Jason has had the hot hand recently. the overall trends are continuing to be good
  19. frd
    If the FV3 is handling the Northern lattitudes better its solution could indeed be correct over the Euro. Not sure how well versus the Euro vs the American model + upgrade verifies , with the Northern Jet . I use to hear better than the Euro at times in this area. Also, is the question of a data void as the disturbance is North of Alaska currently. ( see below ) good point below about GOES and polar orbiters. Also worth to note this as well from Jack More So where is this disturbance now? It's north of Alaska in a data void. Usually it's the lack of upper air data that gets blamed for bad "sampling" but I'd argue it's probably more a lack of satellite data. Polar orbiters are great, but don't sample as frequently as GOES
  20. frd
    Right on time
  21. frd
    Hmmm, interesting , a few mets I read online have stated the potential for this event to move North Also, Webb posted this too, and then I looked back to see what actually happened. If this is indeed the storm he is mentioning , as the dates seem to match it did effect DC and Baltimore MSLP patterns aside, I believe it was way colder before and during the 1988 event, versus how things are currently. https://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/09/us/storm-hits-east-coast-after-burying-south-in-snow.html
  22. frd
    Yep, like that look. The new Euro seasonal should be out in the next 12 to 24 hours, I am very interested to see whether it looks like the overall weeklies progression. If so, the seasonal has been very stable, whereas the weeklies have been eratic at times. ( I see no reason to think the seasonal would change at this point ) You mentioned you believed the weeklies not because its the Euro, but more so because oif the background state, thats brillant, could not agree more. I can easily see how that progression from last evening's weeklies happen, and we score later in the month and in Jan.
  23. frd
    I assume this means green light Confluence moving NE opens the door So far the last few weeks seems to reveal that Old Man Winter's tendencies and trends seem cold(er) and snow more than warm and dry.
  24. frd
    I am so happy I could cry. Plus I am suffering form data overload , too much great weather info to digest! The progression of the weeklies fits @Isotherm seasonal forecast. So far, so good. Excellent times ahead !! I hope the board doesn't crash.
  25. frd
    Seems this is happening due to the changes with the SPV . Deep winter incoming !!! :-)
×
×
  • Create New...