frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Good eyes. Nice post ! We will get ours.
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Great info from Dr Amy Butler To do justice, you have to go and read the entire post, very educational indeed See about the QBO phase, and duration of heat fluxes all play a role
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Good point, and looking over the next 7 to 16 days a lot of snow is going to fall across Canada. Source regions should breed cold as we end the month. There has been some persistence so far this cold season for near record breaking cold, if not here, to many locations in the Midwest and NE. Not sure if it will happen, but I think there is a significant cold risk out in time after the reload that we get some really cold air masses coming to visit. This may coincide with the MJO favorable phases.
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I think expect variability with the long range. I have no idea how the GFS has the PV planted on the pole. Something has to give. Maybe the GFS kissed the CFS and caught a systems bug ......... Lord knows the climate model has been off in "real" time. Hey showme does the Oracle hang out in the Panic room ? :0
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I didn't know Ventrice was a strat Weenie , ha ha ha The strat stuff is encouraging, but it still does not make up for the fact the GFS is moving closer to the Euro I think , ugh.
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Its coming Sure seems like the trends are starting to indicate the return of the pattern of cold
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Is it not the very features and tropical forcing causing this warm up , the same players involved in the demise of the SPV? I thought it was based on precursor pattern. The warm up itself creates its on desctruction given enough time. I also read that tropical forcing itself it very much involved in what is going on up North and of course other factors as well, like early season low sea ice, pressure patterns, etc.
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Thanks as always showme. I always appreciate your time with these updates !
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I look forward to reaching for my Droid and looking for @showmethesnow update super early in the morning and maybe over night tonight the Euro/EPS will start to cave even more and and showme can write about it .... (hint hint ) ha. Silly me, but it is a bit boring now. On serious note are the warm blob temps, they are looking very impressive, and I see the ocean temps are diving off the Mid Atlantic.
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Even though psu and Bob chimmed in on this I bet that year had early season blocking and that it reappeared later in the season. Too tired to look it up. And yes, you can get a stout - NAO in a Nina , harder to do but as mentioned here it can happen. The same things we look for now as clues to the upcoming winter most likely happened that year ( early - AO / -NAO in same form or fashion ) over a century ago.
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You know this is interesting, it went down like this before a long time ago 1908 Also of interest, the old timer saying thunderstorm in the South and then a Southern Snowstorm a week to 10 days later. That is a JB one, but seems to work more often than not .
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For @Bob Chill growing confidence as I see even the conservative Dr Amy Butler posting on this ......
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Quick update on the start , seems the wave 1 did its job, but we need a lot more to get a significant event. However, more activity seems lined up t take place. The most important thing is how wave 2 follows up and the nature of it. A lot of people on twitter strat watch get a little too gung hoo on things. Most times forecasts have little value out in time so consistency/trends, etc. is so important. Also, HM stated things have to come together at the right time to produce certain outcomes, and certain outcomes predicted by the models at a forecast time in the future will change a significantly. However the trends so far this season have been for certain events to occur favoring SPV weakening and displacements. HM brings another good pooint the tropical forcing is a key in the strat process. I read the final outcome is still in question in regards to what happens after the wave 2. Is there a split, a displacement, etc? interesting to add this as well
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I found the WB video by JB of interest this AM, I hardly ever mention it but this morning I enjoyed his look at the forecasted convection in the Indian Ocean, or lack there ,of starting in about 15 to 20 days. Then he did a comparison to previous convection episodes in that same area in the past, and what those patterns/looks gave NA the following Jan, well, you guessed it , a very cold look.
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I am rolling on the floor laughing, I was born and raised in Philly and what you said it totally true !!!! Philly fans turn on a dime. ........... YO losers ......heard many times on my South Philly Street. Once was only 9 months after the Philles won the WS. very sad
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Certainly seems the atmosphere is acting more Nina and the SOI has been positive for a long while. As pointed out this AM by @bluewave it is very uncommon to be going into December with a positive SOI and a weak El Nino. Also, he mentioned the reason the cutter trended to the SE might have to do with the + SOI split flow and a stronger Northern stream via the +SOI . I am not sure what to make of it. Certainly the SOI was negative back in Sept and Oct a lot, but looking at https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ the trend to me is not impressive. And I know Ray mentioned yesterday the weak MEI number too. There is more to it than that with forcing , hadley cells, etc. but you bring up a good point.
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Some nice visuals here by Ventrice
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Well at the least it continues, the Ens mean is a continued gradual decline, but then again it is getting closer in time.
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Only using this for trends but the NASA model taking away here is Davis Straights blocking for Feb and very impressive looking . Actually blocking a lot more visible on this updated run versus last month across all the higher lattitudes. A big flip to colder in Europe too makes sense based on the blocking signature Upon 500 times screen magnification I like the coldest anomolies over MBY in the lastest forecast, give or take 50 miles. Certainly the expanse of cold over the East has gotten a lot smaller. Not sure I buy that.
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I have heard some mets say the real deal waits till mid Jan to set in. Some winters set in end of Dec but many wait till early to mid Jan as you know. Until proven otherwise I don't buy mid Jan start to a better pattern, I think we start to see things improve for our areas Christmas week. I really feel the pattern is hard for the models to pin down still. I defer to seasonal Euro over the weeklies , for now. Weeklies have bounced around a lot.
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Ah, the dripping paint image below - there is research on that look (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001 ) Again keeping in mind the bias for SSW at the end of model runs, as per Sam. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0012.1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11641495
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Good point, folks forget that above normal in Canada at this time of year is not warm.
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As the PV shifts away and then hopefully shifts back. But the Judah animation is really cool if not for anything but the warmth from the region of Morocco and the Algiers gets shunted and transported to Siberia As HM mentions the warmth will not last in is post below. Check out the warm blob and its transport here :
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The attacks on the SPV have really been relentless. A lot is going to go down from Dec 10th to the 25th. Outcomes still uncertain of course.
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Bob, what is you thinking about snowcover losses for NA. ? I have been a believer that snow cover has been a driver with the cold for us. However, maybe it will not be a big deal afterall. Afterall, it might rebiuld quickly. SE Canada has extensive snowcover, doubt it would go poof. Plus if you believe the Cohen stuff, the end of Oct. burst in SAI for a -AO , ( cough ) is already in process and the wheels are in motion. The SPV is weak.
