frd

Yeah BABY !!!!!!!

Did not last winter at times the GEFS did do well forecasting these things ? If that block retrogrades like that to the Davis Straights its money time. I believe at hour 144 it is forecasted to be 588 meters, wow. I think I posted last week about the record warmth above the surface targeted for Finland and Scandanavia. Coming true into a monster block. Granted this has been a feature there too over the summer as well. Just not as strong.

Yeah, do you think that because now the cold could last until the end of the month when a few days ago it was going to warm up near the 15 th or 18 th, does that mean the warmth comes later in December and lasts longer once we get into the month ? I am not sure. I would think any relaxation should be brief. ( I hope ) So far this look above at the high lattitudes you are talking about should have a short reload period in early to mid December. I mean Isotherm has a cold and stormy December. There is a lot to like.

Agreed, and maybe another outcome is at some point a large chunk of the Country is snow covered, with a track like that, E to W. Just read today that NA snow cover continues to grow and we are at/near decadal records . I really feel the feedback may be why the cold is staying longer than originally modeled. I just wish any warm up we do have does not eat up a lot of Canada's snow cover. And, if the last Euro snowfall seasonal is correct, by mid December even Frosty would be happy.

Of interest today I see the new UKMET seasonal was issued, and to my eyes it seems to have gone to more of a -NAO look very it's previous update. Seems to echo your forecast of the NAO to a degree. I wanted to say your NAO forecasts are remarkable, especially in view of how difficult, if not impossible that indice is to predict on a seaonal basis. I include this as well for reference :

The new UKMET seasonal is out, it holds the good trends . I like it, seems like more NAO blocking. Looks active as well.

True, as you know many times the colder outcomes go towards Europe or even Siberia. We hardly ever get lucky with them. A fickle beast.

Ha Ha Yeah, I can live with his forecast and no strat talk. Basically, he states it is not needed for the outcomes he is forecastng. I was simply curious.

Isotherm thank you for your outlook. I was looking forward to it . Can you explain, if time permits, why you feel a technical SSWE during the MET winter is not likely this year? I read this part " solar flux is running quite low, as we descend into the minimum of solar cycle 24 (which is still at least 1 year away). Flux values have generally hovered around 700 or slightly lower. Suppressed solar forcing in concert with increasingly westerly shear stress due to the positive QBO will act to stabilize the upper level stratospheric vortex, and destructively interfere with sudden stratospheric warming events." I thought maybe the odds were higher due to the phase change with the QBO and the low solar background state. Seems we need solar forcing ? Thanks, and much appreciated !

As for this I am surprised. i thought maybe this winter the odds were increased. ( see the quote below from his outlook ) Plus the SSWE last Feb caused the cold and snowy March, right ? " In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern."

Me too !!

Thank you , thank you :-) Been waiting on his outlook for a long time. I feel he does a very good job. I LOVE THIS !!!! ( from his outlook ) The sub-tropical jet (STJ) should become active with wetter than normal and snowier than normal conditions. Most of the Northeast corridor will have the first real chance of a white Christmas in almost a decade.

The transition from late summer to Fall and then a preview of winter was pretty remarkable. I had figs on my fig tree up till yesterday here , now zap, everything falling to the ground just looking out the window. I look forward to the next transition from winter preview to deep winter with snow cover and a snow swept landscape. I hope your reseeding holds :-) I never got to doing my lawn, but will try a new method and do mid winter seeding after the ground starts to freeze and crack. Might be a waste of money, will see.

Seems later in the month there is pressure on the PV from both the Atlantic and Pac sides, certainly no blue ball up there.

Andrew makes some wild 3 D animations regarding the strat

I hate to even bring this up, but I will :-) I read some update from Judah and basically it implies that the nature of the SAI ad the timing aspect at the VERY end of the month of October, ( very important to him/his research ), plus other various factors such as drivers and preconditioners of the upcoming pattern that he looks to to drive a winter -AO are in his favor and according to him look good if you like winter and cold and snow. So, we better have a averaged -AO this winter. I still feel that despite him taking credit for past winters that were cold but that did not feature a -AO he still has some insights worth considering. I like to look at 20 + things and then try to get a consensus feeling, I am with you Bob, I think this winter will deliver compared to thr past few.

Interesting given this normally shows warmth I think

Would you then say weaker Nino = colder winter overall ? versus 02-03 and 09-10 possibly ? And maybe certain areas will simply have more snow ( above climo ) due to more frequent events, ( even with less -NAO ) versus years like 02-03 and 09-10 that had HECS / MECS and contributed so much to the overall snowfall totals. I still like the overall manner in which the SSTs seem to favor keeping the MJO out of the super warm phases. That could change though at some point.

You always has great insights and weather facts ! Question, do you feel in regards to what you posted above are there any possible correlations to the coming winter ? Or, simply a chance happening.

Interesting model uncertainy has been occurring - and even the Euro struggling , as seen here : Nothing set in stone yet. So based on the weeklies were off the latest Euro can easily change on this Monday. The Scand feature is highly interesting and a close fit to 2014, player too maybe in a mid winter SSW with the current phase change of the QBO ad other factors. The SSW is speculation, but the model changes are real . Bluewave commented a couple weeks ago maybe model swings are due to the battling of Nina and Nino

2014 ish And the Scandinavian ridge feature on the GEFS by Judah - very prominent global depiction there, of course only a forecast More on the Scandinavian ridge:

Blah, is right ......... not what I expected, but goes along with many mets that feel December is warm. Oh well . There are times when the weeklies crap the bed too Euro is not perfect by far , weeklies have had intervals of great verification scores and then, not so good.

Brrrrr......... Hat.... check Gloves...check ....... Chap Stick ......big check Sled...... not yet :-(

Ha Ha "Group think" :-)

Although speculation, certainly this goes in the plus column, continued pressure on the PV , this is also centered in the second half of this month, so there are now a few things that could play a hand in December's weather, say after December 10th possibly.