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I am sure you recall last year, looked great and was great but we hit the middle of December and poof, we lost a lot of the snow cover in the States and in Canada. Notice that dramatic decline in the graph around the second part of December. We would recover eventually, but not till mid Feb. ironic. Wonder if we are destined to the same outcome this year? You would have thought the snow cover might have aided in the delivery of cold air masses into the states, but alas it seems the ones who did benefit the most were the Northern Plains and Northern Maine.

There are signs that the PDO region might become better established and grow more + in the next several weeks. Also, you have to think that we are deviating to a degree from the warm West Pac , Cold East by nature of the extreme +IOD and very cool ENSO 1.2. Also, the lack of sea ice North of Alaska and other factors as well suggest, at least the possibility, that after a moderation we may not be destined for a torch December. The record IOD is a huge player and even the PMM has my attention.

Just checked out the Euro Northern Hemisphere look, really stunning . Thanks for the tip, I had no idea about the access there.

Many folks share this view. Some concerns are increasing the odds that the holiday period will be very warm, such as recent years, also that the cold air mass is wasted because snow climo itself is still too early and hostile. However, some areas of the country I have seen in the past do start early, with cold and snow, and remain so during the heart of winter. I hope this is not a head fake. I believe there are plenty of reasons to expect cold and snow in the NE this winter.

Low of 31 degrees here this morning. Heavy frost almost like a covering of light snow.

Difficult keeping the coffee hot this morning, with this chill in the air. Nice to hear from you, and looking forward to your insights as the season progresses.

On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used. Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised. Seems the general idea is the GFS is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly.

Looks great. I will have to take a pic of mine to share. All in all I am very happy with the way the front lawn looks. The two most challenging things for me was the aeration and watering when it was 94 degrees out. Your new fire pit and grass complement one another !

Better late than never. This is interesting as well image of above for Sept 2019

IOD continues to climb and looks to go even higher. Implications for early winter seem likely.

Never heard of it - so I had to look it up....... fascinating read here volitile oils reacting with sunlight. Feel better . https://web.extension.illinois.edu/cfiv/homeowners/090611.html

I might look into that as well, thanks.

Thanks, that is a great point ! I read crab grass sends out some sort of phenol that makes the grass around it not grow as much, but so far crab grass is under control here, with the pre-emergent I but down. Seems my biggest issue this year with the lawn will once again be lawn fungus because of this dew point at night deal. Will reseed in the Fall. but all in all I am happy so far to still have green grass on July 6 th.

Many cucumbers this morning in the garden, wow, I guess the rain maybe, birds after tomatoes though, so I purchased a bird netting because the ribbons and aluminum squares flying in the breeze is not really working at keeping all the various birds away. Its always something ! Yum, your sald sounds great ! My wifes fav are the cherry tomatoes !!! She told me if the birds eat them I am in the dog house . LOL ( more like sweat house ) !

Some folks scalp the grass when they cut it , and wonder why it browns and causes stress on the lawn. I always cut on the highest settings.

Same here, eggplants finally getting bigger with a few flowers. All in all, so far, so good.

OMG, got nailed again with even larger hail more than 1 inch. Incredible. I am tired now all this weather watching , need a beer or two or three

Yet another STW for me. Wonder if that line weakens before it gets here. The most robust part of the line seems to be North of me, with what looks like a bowing out across extreme Northern Delaware. Guessing the highest winds up there. Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-292045- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0166.190629T1959Z-190629T2045Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... Western Salem County in southern New Jersey... West central Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Southwestern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... South central Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 359 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Kennett Square to Glen Westover to Farmington, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Elkton, Calvert, Chester, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, Kennett Square, New Castle, Penns Grove, Salem, Oxford, North East, Woodstown, Alloway, West Grove, Rising Sun and Quinton.

Well ,that was worth the warning, winds to about 40 maybe 45 , blinding rain in sheets, hail about .75 I think. Over 1.25 inches of rain in less than 35 minutes No tree damage, so thats good but not sure about the garden and the hail , I hope its Ok will look a bit later.

Well lets see how the trees and garden makes out. I rather not do high winds anymore, surprised this is tracking this way after the downpour already and the air temp is way down. Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC003-MDC015-291915- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0151.190629T1847Z-190629T1915Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 247 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central New Castle County in northern Delaware... East central Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 246 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Cayots, or near Elkton, and moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Middletown, Warwick, Mount Pleasant, Cayots, Hollywood Beach, Bohemias Mills and Chesapeake City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. In addition to large hail and damaging winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. &&

Right now some sort of boundary setting up on the Eastern Shore ( storms developing along it ) to my West and Northwest far displaced from the line moving Se from PA. A lot of thunder here now. I too saw that anvil you mentioned. Very impressive too watch

That storm, which is to my WSW , not too far really, is dropping incredible rainfall based on the radar loop .

Seems severe hail today is a moderate risk. On the link here https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0461.html Do you know the difference in the table under risks ? The SPC mentions a moderate risk for severe hail, and a low risk for 2 inch plus hail. What defines severe hail ?

Storms on the move SE already from NW and Central PA.

Grass has gone brown, who knows how long it will last, except to say it looks dry for a while. Tonight's storms be a drop in the bucket. This time of year the sun can wipe out soil moisture in minutes. Meanwhile, all the straw is out of stock in my area, wanted to add more to the garden, now have to wait. And, for the Crepe Myrtle may try neem oil. I really don't want to use anything on it, but at this rate all the buds will be gone, I hate Japanese bettles.