WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Ok, thanks. I think people should keep their expectations in the dusting-2" range in all honesty.
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Is this for the midweek deal or the whole 15 days? What's the Feb 2/3 window look like?
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It kinda falls apart at 192 hrs, but the 168hr setup is pretty loaded on the Euro. PV moving toward the 50/50 zone, northern and southern shortwaves moving toward each other, and a nice PNA ridge. Looks like the big ULL west of CA sort of kicks the ridge too far east by 192, but a nice setup regardless.
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It's ~96 hours away, so I'd expect the EPS will play follow the leader and look pretty solid.
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Exactly
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Miller B crazy I'd definitely want some buffer zone on this sort of setup within 48 hours so when it has the inevitable move N we're still in the good stuff.
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Euro have anything Thursday with that piece of vorticity rotating through? Looks like a similar surface reflection in VA like the GFS/GGEM.
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Indonesia
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GFS and GGEM both have some upper-level induced snow in the OH Valley next Wednesday that looks like it tries to create a weak surface low in VA as it moves east. GFS throws out a few snow showers with it, GGEM keeps all the moisture west of the Apps. Another thing worth watching. That would be very dependent on the precise track and strength of vorticity pieces that are rotating around the PV.
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GFS is like 0.5-1" for NoVA/DC/MD.
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TT shows the warmth is really just confined to the boundary layer. Temps near 50 ahead of the front.
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Light/mod event with the arctic front, 2-3 days of freezing our butts off, then a MECS when the PV retreats. I can get onboard with that 4 sho.
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@Bob Chill I’m a little intrigued by the Sunday/Monday weak waves. Looks like a few bites on the GEFS for a dusting at least. Wondering if that can juice up to be a 1-2” deal.
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Got that squall line type feature to verify. Pouring.
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0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.
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And #3 is pretty bad but I think #4 is good?
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I hid it. Don’t think we need a thread on one poster.
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I think the current forecast is for a Nino to "officially" develop in spring now.
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Because it's not really a Nino. Not picking a fight with @psuhoffman because I agree that going into fall, it looked like a modoki type Nino was on the way. But the SST anomalies have been pretty blah the last 2 months and as we know, the general Pac ocean warmth hasn't been efficiently coupled to the atmosphere.
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I'll tell you what, Matt @Deck Pic has a good shot to nail the January temp departure or be close after nailing December. I think he went +2-3F for DC for January. Currently +3.8F at DCA with very cold departures today and tomorrow, but then probably + departures Wed/Thurs before cooling back down for the last several days of the month. Now just need to nail that -3-4F (I think) departure for Feb!
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I haven't seen past D10, but this map I can get behind. Especially if that piece of the vortex in Canada gets stretched out more E-W afterwards.
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I've seen better, but...?
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And it's a near-miss fish for early next week.
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FV3 continues being insistent with a changeover to snow late Thursday for points N/W of the cities.
