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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest.
  2. WxUSAF
    Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out.
  3. WxUSAF
    Happy hour delivers and the runs not over yet! Anafrontal deals usually work well for us, especially at the beginning of December!
  4. WxUSAF
    We started some decorating today outside. I’m usually very anti-pre-thanksgiving Christmas decorating but yeah, 2020.
  5. WxUSAF
    EPS looks quite similar at that time.
  6. WxUSAF
    Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager.
  7. WxUSAF
  8. WxUSAF
    Return of December 5?
  9. WxUSAF
  10. WxUSAF
    Extrapolated 12z gfs lookin’ tasty!
  11. WxUSAF
    We’ve got “extreme weather bullseye” working in our favor
  12. WxUSAF
    JB2 forecast FWIW https://www.justinweather.com/2020/11/19/winter-outlook-2021-i-am-more-bullish-on-snow-for-part-of-it/
  13. WxUSAF
    BWI: 10.3” IAD: 12.7” DCA: 6.5” RIC: 9.8” SBY: 8.5”
  14. WxUSAF
    This doesn’t look horrible. Usually CPC is just an ENSO copy-paste.
  15. WxUSAF
    This strong phase 2 wave helps that short cool-ish period near the start of December. If it goes into the COD after phase 2 without propagating into phase 3-4, that would help keep things less torchy.
  16. WxUSAF
    My cat observed the process from within 6 feet
  17. WxUSAF
    You can wire me $7M by Friday at 5pm for a hand recount. And no, you can’t just have a recount for DCA.
  18. WxUSAF
    Congrats to @MN Transplant! He won with a total departure of 19 days. I hadn't noticed when I looked a few days ago, but @snowfan was actually really close, coming in 2nd place with a departure of 20 days. @GATECH was 3rd with 24 days. For 4 locations and 38 participants, only @GATECH got one (DCA) exactly right. 2020 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
  19. WxUSAF
    Wow, nice! I saw PWSs around DCA were 30-32F by 10pm last night so I wondered if it would be able to get there.
  20. WxUSAF
    Low of 26. Frosty out. Kudos to the GGEM on this morning. It was consistently much colder then the US or Euro guidance and that verified.
  21. WxUSAF
    About time we get one of those for a change. 30F here. How low will it go?
  22. WxUSAF
    BWI hit freezing at the top of the hour
  23. WxUSAF
    Down to the low temp from this morning
  24. WxUSAF
    5 nearest PWSs on wunderground: 28, 31, 32, 35, 35
  25. WxUSAF
    Ha. Still screws us
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