WxUSAF

I think every thread except Chuck's latest on why it's been so cloudy lately.

This is the winter storm threat tracking thread. Only storm talk. -NAOs at D15 stays in the other thread.

Ok, we'll give this a whirl. This is the PATTERN thread. Shovel pattern to your hearts content.

Too many people are always hunting for KU/HECS patterns. And yes we’ve been teased with some this winter on the weeklies and D10+ ensembles, but they are super rare for a reason. Most of our snow storms occur in patterns where a couple or few of the good indicators looks good and the rest are meh to bad. For our snow chances, the AO is easily the most important indicator. It looks negative for the foreseeable future during our prime climo. It’s mid January, I’m tired of talking pattern. Let’s just watch storm threats develop.

We could go back to removing lots of crap posts that upsets people just as much.

Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options?

Still some snow patches around. Particularly shady spots.

How was it a forecast bust for us? Has looked pretty much exactly like this for 3-4 days?

Had one flake earlier. Now a few sleet pellets mixed in with the rain.

No reason at all to bail on a storm that’s like 75 miles off at 6 day leads.

Storms have been modeled too far NW in the mid-long range and then too far south in the short range all winter.

I mean, 6z runs still look like that to me, but if we're all punting to a late Feb Hail Mary, I don't want to be left out!

Are we now to winter cancel uncancel cancel uncancel cancel? Asking for a friend!

I was wondering that too. He's visiting, just not posting.

Temporarily unpinning this. Post your rain and wind chill obs in the MLK day thread.

I like mischief https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1086371966771179521?s=21

Based on the pressure, looks like the boundary is still NW of us.

We've still got DEEP THUNDAH!

NE MD PUMMELED! (at exactly the same level as the rest of the CWA) 000 NOUS41 KLWX 181417 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ025>031- 036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-190217- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 917 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 7 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/baltimore ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ...District of Columbia... National Zoo 1 WSW 1.2 605 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Ridgeley 1 NW 1.5 810 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Anne Arundel County... Fort Meade 1 NNE 1.7 500 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Green Haven 1 ESE 1.5 530 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Bwi Airport 0.9 700 AM 1/18 Airport Londontowne 3 SW 0.8 600 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Baltimore County... Long Green 1.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Brooklandville 2 NNW 1.2 630 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Upper Falls 1 NNE 1.1 730 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter White Marsh 2 ESE 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Long Green 2 NW 1.0 654 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 1 E 1.0 650 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Reisterstown 1.0 717 AM 1/18 County Emrg Mgmt ...Baltimore City... Pimlico SE 1.3 630 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Pikesville 2 ESE 1.3 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Carroll County... Westminster 2 SE 1.8 700 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Eldersburg 1 E 1.6 630 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Gamber 1 WNW 1.5 825 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Wagners Mill 1 ENE 1.5 555 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Taneytown 3 NE 1.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Frederick County... Bloomfield 2 WSW 1.5 730 AM 1/18 NWS Employee Point of Rocks 1 NE 1.4 430 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Emmitsburg 2 SE 1.0 625 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer Adamstown 1 ESE 1.0 644 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Harford County... Bel Air 2.0 750 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Norrisville 1.9 645 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Phillips Aaf 1.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer Bel Air 1 W 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Howard County... Simpsonville 1 SSE 2.1 400 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Columbia 1.8 700 AM 1/18 NWS Employee Elkridge 1 W 1.7 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Columbia 2 NW 1.5 723 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Savage 1 N 1.5 700 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Gaither 1 ESE 1.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Sykesville 2 SSE 1.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Elkridge 2 W 1.4 644 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Columbia 2 N 1.3 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Elkridge 1.3 554 AM 1/18 NWS Employee ...Montgomery County... White Oak 1 W 2.1 758 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Bethesda 1 NNW 2.0 715 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Takoma Park 2.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Potomac 2.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Brookeville 1 S 2.0 725 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Colesville 1 W 1.9 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Four Corners 1 SW 1.9 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Norbeck 1 ESE 1.7 700 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Colesville 1.6 505 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Damascus 3 SSW 1.6 722 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer Damascus 2 SSE 1.5 630 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Clarksburg 2 E 1.4 600 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Damascus 1 SE 1.4 730 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Rockville 3 NNW 1.2 816 AM 1/18 NWS Employee Germantown 1 SE 1.0 904 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Montgomery Village 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Prince Georges County... Calverton 1.6 645 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS College Park 1 SW 1.3 630 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Washington County... Hagerstown 1.6 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Keedysville 1 SE 1.2 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Halfway 1.2 600 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Hancock 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Sharpsburg 5 S 0.8 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer VIRGINIA ...Arlington County... Reagan National Apt 1.0 700 AM 1/18 Airport ...Augusta County... Fishersville 1 NE 1.1 600 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...City of Charlottesville... Charlottesville 1 NN 1.0 739 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...City of Fairfax... Fairfax 1 N 1.4 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...City of Manassas... Manassas 0.5 718 AM 1/18 UCOOP ...City of Staunton... Staunton 2 W 1.0 630 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Staunton 0.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...City of Waynesboro... Waynesboro 2 WSW 1.0 800 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Culpeper County... Rixeyville 2 N 2.3 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Catalpa 1 SSE 1.5 530 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Fairfax County... Herndon 1 NNE 2.0 700 AM 1/18 NWS Employee Vienna 1 SSW 1.5 321 AM 1/18 NWS Employee The I66 And I495 1 E 1.4 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Reston 2 SW 1.4 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Chantilly 3 N 1.3 721 AM 1/18 NWS Employee Vienna 1.3 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer Chantilly 1 E 1.3 801 AM 1/18 NWS Employee Baileys Crossroads 1 1.2 730 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Wolf Trap 1 ENE 1.1 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Reston 1 N 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Burke 2 NNW 0.5 740 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Mount Vernon 1 ENE 0.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Fauquier County... Warrenton 6 S 1.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Bealeton 1 ESE 1.2 600 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Frederick County... Winchester 7 SE 1.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...Highland County... Mill Gap 1 SW 2.0 600 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...Loudoun County... Dulles International 1.8 637 AM 1/18 Airport Middleburg 2 NW 1.8 800 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Bluemont 1 NE 1.5 645 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Belmont 2 N 1.0 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Hughesville 1 ESE 0.5 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Madison County... Criglersville 1 WNW 2.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Haywood 2.2 700 AM 1/18 UCOOP ...Page County... Honeyville 1 ESE 1.5 522 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Woolsey 1 NE 1.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Independent Hill 3 N 1.2 600 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Independent Hill 3 N 1.1 530 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Dale City 1 W 1.0 700 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Aden 2 WSW 0.9 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Rockingham County... Massanutten 1 ESE 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Dale Enterprise 1.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...Shenandoah County... Clary 1 NE 1.4 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Stafford County... Ramoth 1 W 0.9 730 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter White Oak 3 SSE 0.1 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Falling Waters 2 NW 1.4 817 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Bunker Hill SE 1.3 709 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter Martinsburg Arpt 1 N 1.2 602 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Grant County... Bayard 1.4 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...Hardy County... Fisher 2 W 0.2 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS ...Mineral County... Keyser 2 SW 0.8 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer

BWI with 0.9" and DCA with 1".

6z FV3 has the trailing wave, but doesn't quite get enough separation to strengthen. 6z GEFS looks like a step back relative to 0z. More spread. Some timing spread, but also some inland runners and a few suppressed waves.

1.4" for a total of 14.2". Solidly outside "dead ratter" snow season. 5-6" to get to an "average" season.

Measured another 0.7" on the snowboard this morning for a storm total of 1.4". Nice little event.

<1” of snow is SRS BIZNS

You know what was a south of 70 event? This past weekend when I had 11 point f-cking 3 inches of white gold. How was your 2-3”?