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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride.
  2. WxUSAF
    RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix.
  3. WxUSAF
    And that’s what basically every other run has. Icon has a cleaner, single northern shortwave that perfectly phases. It’s quite beautiful actually if you ignore how it Fs us over lol.
  4. WxUSAF
    Icon basically has a perfect, full phase of the northern stream and the Baja low. It’s textbook. We’ve only seen that on like 1-2 runs of varsity models yet for this storm? Seems pretty unlikely with how much is going on. I’ll take 6” and taint as the fail scenario.
  5. WxUSAF
  6. WxUSAF
    Kudos to them. I noticed this morning Alena Lee said they weren’t going to give totals yet. But have been saying big snow possible.
  7. WxUSAF
    It will virga for awhile, lower atmosphere will be super dry. So expect the “donut hole” look on radar. But we won’t “miss” any precipitation because of that. Models account for that. Once the column saturates, it will probably go from light flurries to steady snow quickly.
  8. WxUSAF
    Yeah, any weaker/more easterly northern wave helps reduce chances of a GGEM scenario.
  9. WxUSAF
    Look at where that big northern shortwave enters the country around 78hrs. Much farther east than 12z. Continuing to 84hrs, part of the difference is speed, but it’s still east. I like that. Would like to see that same thing on the varsity models.
  10. WxUSAF
    I’ve used up all my reactions for today! I expect this to probably continue through Monday?
  11. WxUSAF
    A foot before mixing! I will caveat that with the farther NW track, we don’t get those absurdly deep DGZs like we were looking at a day or two ago. I’d expect more like 10-12:1 in the WAA thump in total.
  12. WxUSAF
    How are there 2 more workdays before this shit starts?? I’m already talking to you jabronis too much.
  13. WxUSAF
    Snow starts in like 80 hours, chief!
  14. WxUSAF
    It’s happening!!! Or is it???
  15. WxUSAF
    EPS-AI is wetter than regular EPS now (or maybe also was before and I didn’t notice). Colder too at 850.
  16. WxUSAF
    Still think 8-14” is probably the most reasonable range for now for the metro corridor.
  17. WxUSAF
    Sure
  18. WxUSAF
    Because the wave is phasing far west of our typical ideal for a coastal storms.
  19. WxUSAF
    Euro has 2 miller B teases after this weekend
  20. WxUSAF
  21. WxUSAF
    Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.
  22. WxUSAF
    6-18z Sunday is a beatdown
  23. WxUSAF
    8-14” 50% 12-18” 25% BOOM 4-8” 25% BUST
  24. WxUSAF
    Only have plots every 6 hours on Pivotal, but at 18z Sunday (102hrs), all the layers (700, 850, and 925) are at or below freezing for DC-Annapolis and points N/W. 850 is warmest. Goes above freezing at 700 after that time, but only another 0.25” of precip or so. So unless there’s a sneakier warm layer between 700-925mb, that’s a solid 1.1-1.3” of precip before any mixing.
  25. WxUSAF
    Yeah I’m very skeptical of ZR vs sleet in the metro area. Doesn’t matter at this point, but will have to look at NAM soundings Friday if we still have a mixing risk.
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