WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas
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Hmm yeah there are similarities. Euro AI has that giant tropospheric PV in Canada provide just enough confluence without squashing it. GFS squashes it. High latitudes on euro AI otherwise look like trash at that time frame lol. Definitely a unicorn setup but not much else happening…
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Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days.
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This is an interesting combo of indices: -WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA/+EPO. Maybe someone with better analog knowledge than I can show some examples. I think it's one that obviously favors New England a lot more than us. But I think it will remind us how the Pacific drives the bus for us more than the Atlantic. It hopefully keeps Canada cold though, so if we can get the EPO or PNA back toward neutral at least, that should quickly open the door back to winter precip chances.
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Ah good call! That’s it
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1958 per WBAL well wait…he has a weird caveat about “since 1950”
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BWI tied record low max of 26
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12z GEFS (but last few runs also) really leaning into the -NAO developing after Xmas. Bulk that up and a well timed 50/50 low can get something to pass underneath us or provide a CAD event with a low passing to our west.
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12/14: 2.0” 3.4” season total
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Low of 15. Deep winter feel. Even in good winters we don’t get many days like yesterday and today.
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“Average” line cuts through our region on all 4 clusters
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That throw to Zay may be his best of the season?
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@mappy: Norrisville slantsticker reported 7.1”
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As we thought yesterday, Harford and Cecil would have verified warnings. North Baltimore and Carroll would have also and NW MoCo and NW HoCo came damn close.
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Yeah that looks legit. BWI on the other hand…multiple spotter reports over 2” nearby
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Brother in law in forest hill measured “a bit over 4”
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1" official at BWI
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You were in the same subsidence area that I was and east to Baltimore. Areas just to our north (Damascus to Cockeysville area) are mostly 4"+. Mostly bad luck. Probably "should have been" 3"+ for us.
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0.3" at DCA. Woof
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Neighbor's PWS recorded 0.18", which is probably low. I'd guess more like your total? I doubt I got over 0.3" liquid as guidance suggested I would because of that lull overnight. Probably 8:1-ish ratio eta...yup, BWI had 0.26"
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My December average since 2009 is 2.8" (probably not perfect since I didn't record each event from 2009-2012, but used BWI for those years outside 12/17/09). Up to 3.4" now for this month. Tied for 3rd highest December total.
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Did you have any graupel? I woke up to that hitting my window at 4am as it finally started to crank. Did not expect that. I think guidance yesterday did pretty dang well for areas north of I70, but subsidence between bands and accordingly warmer temps shot us in the foot farther south.
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2” exact
