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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I missed the action in Columbia due to a funeral… but my son said it was “scary”. As @Herb@MAWS posted in the other thread, about 1” on the day now. Just heard thunder again.
  2. WxUSAF
    Second heavy rain meso issued by WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181528Z - 182128Z Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are 1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation. This would be most problematic in urban areas.
  3. WxUSAF
    Sky has brightened
  4. WxUSAF
    Dunno. I assume fail lol. Maybe if the warm front can push through we can partially clear for a few hours?
  5. WxUSAF
    VA was pretty clear this morning, but cirrus outflow from the PA storms are now expanding over us. Not sure we’re going to clear out at all for the metro areas and points N/E
  6. WxUSAF
    Come on mama nature, flood me
  7. WxUSAF
    I can smell it this morning again. Not as strong as yesterday
  8. WxUSAF
    About 0.08” with the morning bonus round. Hopefully 2 more rounds today?
  9. WxUSAF
    Yeah smell is much reduced. Could see 1 star in the sky
  10. WxUSAF
    Solar power was about 70-75% of what it would have been without smoke
  11. WxUSAF
    Hugging the Herpderp. Other mesos look like shit.
  12. WxUSAF
    Yeah, northern edge has pushed south into eastern PA and NJ. WV looks relatively clear. But a firehose of smoke pointed right at central MD
  13. WxUSAF
    Just eyeballing out my office window, it had improved a bit around 11am-12pm but has gotten thicker again since
  14. WxUSAF
    Need a big fat QLCS to blow and rain all the smoke out
  15. WxUSAF
    Found a link with visible band optical depth. UMBC at ~2.5 and the Maryland science center at ~3. Those are pretty ridiculous.
  16. WxUSAF
    N95 should help, yes.
  17. WxUSAF
    Bump for the 12z isolated micro-shower tomorrow in the metro area
  18. WxUSAF
    They just cancelled
  19. WxUSAF
    My memory is that 2023 smelled like a wet, stale campfire. Agree with @dailylurkerthat today has more tire-fire notes
  20. WxUSAF
    Ha. Well orioles are away tonight so scratch that chance for help…
  21. WxUSAF
    0z euro moves that round 2 through around 0z. Most other guidance has it 2-3 hours later so it mostly falls apart before getting to us.
  22. WxUSAF
    So how do I be “that guy” and tell a bunch of baseball bros that our kids probable shouldn’t have a game tonight? Would probably help if the orioles cancelled first.
  23. WxUSAF
    Why has the NAM just looked like shit for any shower/storm day we’ve had this year from any range >6 hours??
  24. WxUSAF
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/2077515763556979192?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA cant figure out how to display tweets anymore. My trick isn’t working.
  25. WxUSAF
    Still mostly upper 80s or right at 90 except for Baltimore city.
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