WxUSAF

Don’t think this guy is on here. But I like his snow map

Love it @Ellinwood!

Just based on @stormtrackermaps I would have guessed more snow than 12z. Whatever. I’m about done for today. Need a brain break.

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

Oh god we’ve reached JB ocean temp wishcasting stage

DT first guess looks pretty good? Excited for second forecast revision C.

Lol if anything it’s moving farther from the other model consensus. Will it fold in one dramatic shift? Or will all other guidance bow to its superior predictions!??!?!

Yeah but that’s an enormous shortwave trough. AIGFS looks more or less like the other model consensus

GFS kills the Apps running low around Roanoke. Hands it off to the coastal and that keeps precip going. It’s the only model I’ve seen with that.

Might weenie myself for this, but seems like other 18z runs are at least taking a partial step toward the GFS with separating the 2 parts more? But yeah, hard to trust GFS thermal and the strong second part isn’t showing up in other guidance really.

And we (probably) got it way better than the NC weenies… Too much info is 100% a problem with this hobby. With the way models roll out now, there’s almost always a new model run to look at. Round the clock. Like a social media algorithm designed to keep you clicking. Most effective method for me is to put my phone in a different room and leave it there. Plan to do it again at 7pm tonight.

That is a deep and cold surface layer. I dunno. I remember seeing some of the profiles from the 1994 super cold ZR events and the near surface inversion was bonkers. Upper 10s to like 40-50 a stones throw up above.

Wish I had the willpower to do that! And this site sometimes… Certainly feels like one bad run always starts a trend.

Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing?

Yeah I feel all that. This is a pretty shitty hobby and we’re in a historic snow drought. My son asked me something similar last weekend “why does it always get worse for snow?” Lol. Don’t have much useful advice except take a step back for your own mental health. 18z euro yesterday sorta triggered me for some reason and I just put my phone away at 7pm for the rest of the night. I wish I had the strength to just ignore everything until snow starts falling Saturday evening lol.