WxUSAF

About 1.3” so far

Thunder in Columbia with the start of this batch

Yeah I was driving through it on 16th street. That was a mess. Tons of standing and flowing water on the road.

Looking like a slight forecast miss by the NAM

Yes. Probably @high risk can update us on that timeline but I thought it was like the end of August at one point?

Maybe it’s correct but the NAM has been awful this warm season

It was close. Got a brief sprinkle.

Once again the NAM looks like crap before a precip event. But hrrr is really rainy for the metro areas tomorrow.

Gonna miss him when Cade Povich gets the ball every 5 days

He’s been a reliable (and cheap) fifth starter for several years. Will occasionally throw a gem, occasionally a major clunker. He’s been pretty rough lately though.

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke

It’s sort of settled into a physics model vs ai model split now? Physics models slow it down and end up rainier. AI keeps it moving.

Euro ai hinting at it

Pretty low consensus on what this ULL is going to do Sunday though next week. Euro AI been pretty consistent on it being progressive. Physics models flip flopping between a similar solution and stalling it. 0z euro stalls it to our west.

The generally NN/BN weather this month after the mega torch to start has almost erased the AN anomalies for the month at the 3 airports. +0.7 BWI +0.9 DCA +1.7 IAD As of yesterday