WxUSAF

So 18z euro is drier, warmer, about the same, or best yet?

Happy hour smashes a bottle over Maryland’s head

Whoa!

Going to assume 20-30:1 ratios based on my last snowfall

Not sure if it’s the coastal per se or just good dynamics (jet entrance region and frontogenesis). They’re all linked of course. Maybe. Seems like Sunday is the stronger wave. @SnowenOutTherehas the hot hand. I did the December 2nd rain thread

Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.

Euro AI is consistent with the idea of coastal development on Sunday. Definitely the solution PHL-BOS is rooting for. Don’t know how much snow for our area. Probably 1-3”ish?

0z and 6z euro looked a lot like gfs and ukie?

Nice right entrance region of the jet max over us also around 6-12z on the gfs.

Something like that is showing up in the euro too. Tiny coastal enhancement? Need a 20-30mi north shift though.

Yeah, I think that was the coldest Xmas of the 20 year period and it was the worst snowfall year ever for MBY.

Gonna ignore the white dot over my house

Uh, well it Fs us both pretty badly, but other people cash in

With potentially another Xmas torch staring us in the face, I decided to make a plot to see if it’s been as real as it feels or has been for years. So this plot is BWI above normal and much above normal (>=10F) occurrences from 2005-2024. Thicker lines are the year by year counts for each calendar day and thin lines are smoothed by 7 days. Short answer is yes…and the week after Xmas before new years has been the most torch prone.

The warm pool moving eastward would be a good thing for us. Basically puts the background conditions to support the strongest convection (essentially the MJO) in a more favorable position for eastern troughing.