WxUSAF

This rain seems heavier and more widespread than what guidance was suggesting. And I’m still getting screwed.

Freaking November and I’m still getting fringed with storms

@CAPE enjoying this ravens O line performance?

Fair point. The IOD and Nina are going to favor phases 5-6.

Great thread from @griteater on the weakening early season Strat vortex and connections to a -NAO in December-ish. His two closest analogs are December 1981 and early January 1982 and December 2000. December-January 81/82 was a very cold and snowy period for our area, especially January. December 2000 was quite cold, but fairly dry without much snow.

Some part of Chicago metro area (probably focused toward IL/IN border) going to get absolutely nuked with lake effect tomorrow into Monday

0.3-0.35”

I was at that game!

Totally my anecdotal observations, but it seems like the weeklies are ok at picking out a single “pattern change” during the forecast period, but then don’t properly show how that new pattern may evolve or change. So I buy a “good” pattern develops after thanksgiving, but I doubt it looks the same for the subsequent 4 weeks.

Neither say SE Howard though. Probably just an accidental oversight.

Hmmm. Doesn’t say Howard, but has everywhere around us?

Per the mesonet, only the immediate areas along the Bay avoided a freeze this morning.

This is what I’m talking about when I say I don’t want our best pattern in early December though. Yeah, 4” in the first 3 weeks of December is above climo, but it still isn’t that much!

First freeze IMBY!