WxUSAF

@winter_warlock find the banter thread dude

If people cared like with snow, people would be panicking at the 18z hrrr’s precip totals for the weekend

MLK storm in January 2022 was sorta like that. Was low teens the morning it started, got a couple inches of snow, mixed, turned to heavy rain. No thunder that I recall.

Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.

Apologies if it was already mentioned but GFSAI has a couple rounds of winter weather it looks like. Different solutions to all the possible events vs Ops though.

3” in a week is solid when there’s not a single event to key on

And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say.

Definitely a west shift on GEFS vs 12z. More like 6z, but a sharper trough.

There was a story recently of the first confirmed bobcat in Harford county MD in like 100+ years. So they may be expanding their ranges.

We need more wolves and mountain lions

Most Canada geese in our area are non-migratory

Poor ball spacing

And presumably that’s all basically from the 15-17th?