WxUSAF

Storm thread gonna be a scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

That really was PD2 and then some. 2’ down and way more to come lol.

Storm thread for Thursday/friday going to be meltdown city if it plays out like the overnight runs. Waiting for a changeover from rain….blobby precip field, a few people getting raked while others get flurries…oh man it will be rough.

A 1 county sized jackpot zone surrounded by a 1-3” region the size of Delaware lol

Yeah I think there’s southern stream involvement, but less than it looked like a few days ago.

This is what I’m saying.

It’s got to dig and explode on top of us basically.

Having snow with a storm that’s basically over the Chesapeake is a rare thing. It’s mostly because it’s capturing the surface low and deepening right on top of us.

SE ridge has been over modeled for 5 months. It’ll change eventually, but I’d bet on persistence until then.

Don’t want to Deb and I haven’t been able to look at closely at any 12z guidance, but I still think a good ULL passage is a simpler and cleaner way to a 1-3” maybe 2-4” type event. Multiple phasing shortwaves in a Nina with a kicker in the mix and no upstream blocking to slow things down seems like a recipe for last minute heartbreak. Throw in a mid precursor airmass. You know I’m rooting for the unicorn, but I’ll take a simple layup.

Riding the Icon and GFS? What can go wrong. GFS shows the Mt PSU jackpot though which seems like the most realistic part.

I mean, 6z isn’t too far off that idea actually

Gut instinct is that our best reasonable hope for Thursday/Friday is some widespread light snow with the upper level shortwave passage. This is pretty much the euro-ai solution.

@winter_warlock find the banter thread dude