WxUSAF

Oh look, another attempt at a warm up (after next weekend) that looks muted all of a sudden... Op runs are super active, if northern stream dominated (as expected).

Should be posting 20:1 maps with these conditions! Where's @paulythegun?

Gfs is north and juicy. Pummels @Bob Chill to RIC.

12z FV3 way north of its 0z. Flurries to I70.

Looking ahead because I’m pissed I’m getting screwed tomorrow. Late next week definitely has some things going for it with a -NAO and 50/50 combo. Also a flat ish +PNA. If we can get that PNA to spike and get the shortwave coming out of the northern stream to dive below us, we could get something going. 0z euro and 6z gfs both develop a weak coastal storm in this window but move it away from us really quick.

Damn. Not what I wanted to wake up to.

3k was still a huge jump north and expansion of the precip field

Models fully account for precip evaporating or subliming during descent.

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

Seems like with the 18z runs we finally have some consensus, it’s just consensus on dusting-1” for the majority of us instead of the 1-3” we were hoping for. That shortwave is trending stronger so maybe we can juice this up some more. Or rely on 20:1 ratios??

18z rgem was also north. It more clearly is loosening the confluence vs recent runs. Can we sustain some positive trends for more than 1 cycle now?

And much juicier down south. @Bob Chillgonna need to put the plow on his tractor.

Click through the previous 5-6 GFS runs and you can see our shortwave gets much sharper and better defined. Confluence is bouncing around more, which isn’t surprising from a more poorly sampled region.

18z icon an ass hair north of 12z. Basically dusting for most of the area. 1” down by EZF. 2-3” for RIC.