WxUSAF

Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.

Uhhh…82-83 had a KU? 14-15 was a very good winter. 97-98 was a blowtorch super Nino. 06-07 and 18-19 were fair to good depending on location.

One thing I’ve noted the last couple days is that the end of the op runs haven’t been looking like the ensemble means. This is @mitchnick’s anecdotal rule. Today there’s better similarity with non-GFS runs having a more or less favorable winter pattern for us D10-15.

GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.

EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome

1/1: 0.1" 3.5" season total

Woke us up too. Then tried to go back to sleep and the wind hit like a freight train 40 mins later. Visibility was probably 1/10th of a mile or less. Could watch the driveway accumulate snow. It’s blown around so much since, but probably can count 0.1”.

Best run yet easily

Ha, our friends also made shrimp 3 ways.

Don’t know what the rest of winter holds, but this was a very solid December by our standards. Below to much below normal temps and normal to above normal snow for about everyone (sorry Winchester and Stephen’s City).

Nada IMBY

Love it. Gonna kuchie my way to a 4” seasonal total.

I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way.

I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue