WxUSAF

Lamar ruled out for tomorrow. Welp, 4-3…

Coldest morning of the season IMBY. My crappy PWS got to 32.9, which is probably a little too cold, but neighbors hit at least 35.

Euro apparently had a true SSW in today’s run. Would be unprecedented so early in the year

Way out there but not much else to talk about. Op euro and its ensembles have been consistently colder post-Halloween with a couple strong fronts advertised. Euro ai and its ensembles much milder as it keeps a deep trough out west.

Head to Canaan valley this winter lol

Taking the HECS chance off the table for now, let’s look at the last 3 super ninos. 82-83 wasn’t too bad actually, over 12” outside the Feb 83 HECS for Baltimore. 97-98 was obviously a shutout more or less. 15-16 was about 6” outside Jan 16 HECS. With this one being stronger than all of them and more east-based (for now, I’d wag it tends towards more basin wide as the winter progresses), I’d probably only put my Baltimore area forecast at 2-6” outside a HECS chance? But obviously the chance for a HECS is well above normal. I’d even go as far to say that the odds of a strong phasing low taking a traditionally favorable snow track for us is VERY high. 97-98 had like 3 of those! But will there be cold air? So I agree with @psuhoffman that when you put that together you get something like 1 in 3 odds maybe? So do you weight that and take 0.33x18” + 4” or something as your forecast total? Kinda no since I actually think a total like 8-14” for the year is less likely than either 2-6” or 18-24” lol. So to do a CWG kinda thing is probably wag: 0-2” 20% 2-6” 40% 6-14” 10% 14-24” 20% 24”+ 10%

So we probably got that going for us fwiw.

New England color is allegedly one of the best years in a long time. Hoping we get a good one too.

Surprisingly frosty in the always cold beltsville farm fields

We got Josephine

I’m not sure what a start warming in early November really buys us. It will probably restrengthen after and not sure it will propagate downward?

I saw it on Twitter yesterday but someone was showing the analog mean strat temps during super ninos (which is only 4 examples) and the euro seasonal. Analog mean had a warming in early Feb that propagated down by March. Euro seasonal had a similar pattern but about 1 month earlier. A -AO through Feb would be pretty good for us combined with generally more favorable snow conditions for Nino Febs.

Commies didn’t know it was 4th down lol

Yeah that’s super scary. I always think back to the one NBC reporter who died in the first week of the Iraq war from a blood clot because he was sitting in a humvee for like 3 days straight

Rooftop frost on about every house in my neighborhood