John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Euro AI snow map from Bouncycorn, a met on SW who has a program that extracts model data for snow maps, and also blends every model run for an NMB type map.
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MRX is absolutely convinced there won't be any freezing rain and won't put it in any forecast. Their AFD even said because it was against climatology to get freezing rain here, they weren't forecasting it. Bizarre reasoning imo. They had my low at 27 with rain continuing from Sunday into Sunday night.
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Losing the -EPO really hurt the cross polar flow/N stream energy potential models had been showing in the long range. This weekend wouldn't likely be a cutter if the -EPO had stuck. It's just rare in my experience to see storms crashing into the Pac NW that end up doing anything here and it's been a parade into Oregon to BC.
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That run of the Euro was made of middle fingers for East Tennessee. 150 hours of icebox cold but tumble weeds blow through it's so dry. Then 33 and rain while North of 40/west of Cookeville get a huge snow where precip shuts of immediately once it drops below freezing in the East. Not even from a cutter either.
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The way the Euro is going, it may become a tropical system in the Pacific before this run ends. Down to 1009 MB and heading SW from Mexico.
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The Euro and Canadian back the energy for the potential storm after this weekend from Utah to the West coast of Central Mexico. It just hangs out there for a few days.
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The GFS just gave us around .1 to .2 of precip over 8 days from the 7th to the 15th. It's also not going to be extremely cold. I think 3 or 4 mornings below 20 for most of the region that run. So at least there's that. No frozen pipes, damaged vegetarion or blackouts to worry about.
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The Pacific is such a headache for us, once again. The PNA is neutral now and that's what killed the weekend storm. Then the ridge orientation is bad and we can't take advantage of the northern stream energy.
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I don't think I've see models have this big of a timing difference this close. Now, the ICON has the system fully across the forum area by 7am Sunday morning. At the same time frame the NAM hasn't even got precip into Tennessee yet.
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200 miles too far south that run of the GFS. This is the golden age for the Gulf Coast if that comes to pass. Their 30 year snow average will be improved just from 2018 and this year alone if this comes to pass.
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The DGEX errr Euro AI, is a perfect slider snow storm for us from next Thursday into early Saturday morning. Granted, the weekend event coming up was also a perfect snowstorm for us at one point on the AI model.
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Just gonna hope for a few northern stream pulses after this likely cutter exits. Looks like the 2018 analog has a good shot at verifying.
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Basically a Miller B on the ICON.
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The ICON took a big shift south initially that run vs 12z, but rather than moving west to east like 12z, it runs almost due northeast and still crosses over Nashville like it did at 12z, then moves due east, transfers to the coast and dies. Incredible warmth ahead of it. Mid-70s in Alabama. Doesn't seem believable to pump that much warmth up.
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It's moving much slower this run vs it's 12z cutter.
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ICON is bringing our energy onshore in California. It's actually moving over Las Vegas now instead of west into the Pacific.
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It's a small tick, but 5 or 6 days away a few small ones mean the world in this situation. But the Euro was slightly weaker at 500 out in front of the system on the 18z run. It was a tick further south as a result.
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The 486 line over Tennessee? The Heat Miser must be boiling mad.
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What would be truly disappointing here would be if the Northern Stream dries up. I was happiest about this pattern because it was loaded with NS energy that gives you those fluffy 1-3 inch snows.
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I've no clue on that one. Happy hour German style I guess.
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The GFS has a slightly better positioned -NAO, which allows the system to be suppressed just enough. Yesterday the Euro went from Central Kentucky into Northern West VA. Today it goes from SE KY and moves SE into NC. It's feeling the NAO more. We will see if it's enough.
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The Euro moved south some but not enough, unfortunately.
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Euro has stronger heights out in front of the system vs the GFS. Won't be surprised if it cuts unless they weaken.
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Through 84 some differences showing up at 500, the gfs is more consolidated bringing the wave on shore out west.
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Through 72, the GFS and Euro are very similar at 500mb.
