John1122

ICON joined the front end ice storm/cutter camp. Hate to lose the better solution it was showing, especially for a massive I-40 ice storm.

Webb, earlier, posted the 500mb map from next week and from Jan 1977 and they were remarkably similar. It started earlier, with a nice snow event in late December for many folks so '77 started with snow on the ground. Jan 77 was below normal on precip, really, even much below normal with about 50 percent of normal precip. But almost all of what fell, came as frozen precip because it was so cold. Knoxville recorded snow accumulation of at least a dusting on 13 days in Jan 1977, with 5 events between 1 and 4 inches at Mcghee Tys. The Knoxville Experimental station, which is north of the airport had 16 days of snowfall. Chattanooga had 12 days with at least a dusting and 3 1 to 3 inch events. Tri had snow of at least a dusting on 19 days. Including 13 of 14 days in a row. Their biggest event was 5.7 inches over three days. Keep in mind, East Tennessee was less snowy than the Plateau/mid-state that winter. The Northern Plateau had 20+ inches. Jamestown had at least 2 inches of snow on the ground all but two days of the month. Those two that didn't had 1 inch. Jamestown did that with 3 inches of qpf, vs an over 5 inch normal. Nashville had 11 days of accumulation that added up to almost 20 inches. Memphis had 10 days of at least a dusting of snow, Jackson 14 days. Every area of the state at a snow depth of at least 2 inches at one point during the month. Most areas had at least two events of greater than 3 inches. If you count the end of December, most areas had three. I remember here, it snowed seemingly every day, about 1/2 to 1 inch, for weeks on end. School was out day after day. The bigger events happened early month before the super deep freeze hit with -10s being widespread, and after it let up as the Arctic air retreated. That one was a widespread 4-6 inch event January 23rd-25th.

Looking back at last January, the GFS was all over the place and lost the storm day 7 to 5. The Euro was a wound up cutter that had us in the 50s with rain, then it went to Cuba with the storm. It didn't get a clue until 72 hours out. The UKIE was too wound up. The Canadian was too wound up. The ICON had the right general idea by 144 hrs out and held steady until the event.

Trying to remember for sure, but I'm pretty positive last year the ICON locked into the January winter storm and it was the only model that didn't waiver or go off the rails at one time or another from 180 to storm day.

And possibly another system on the heels of that one. Very active northern stream.

And then another event on the heels of that one.

The GFS has another 300+ event for the deep south/Eastern forum.

CMC/UKIE/ICON vs the GFS/Euro currently. It used to be that Euro runs were similar to the UKIE. We'll see how far apart they are soon.

The UKIE just smokes the I-40 corridor.

I could do without 1/2+ inch of ice before cold hits.

The GFS ends with another 2-4 inch event over parts of our region and possibly another gulf storm that would actually see us getting precip but imo the GFS does what it often does and undermodels the northern/western edge of the precip shield and only areas east of 75 are snowing. Granted it's at hour 384 so salt planets with any of it. I ended up with right at 12 inches of snow spread out 2 to 4 inches at a time over a week or so.

6z remains a cutter, then it clippers it's way to decent totals, one of which blossoms into a massive Nor'Easter. Our whole forum area gets 2-6 inches over days 8-12ish. As always, like as not a complete fantasy. But what we used to see with true Alberta clippers.

The Euro moves to the GFS camp. A ridge pops ahead of the system like on the GFS and the storm cuts across Tennessee and into Ohio. Still a lot of runs to go, but cutters are the default for us, unfortunately. Hopefully it can trend back our way.

Spot the difference between the 0z GFS cutter, vs the 0z ICON, 0z UKMet, 12z Euro, 0z GEFS as the system approaches. GFS ICON UKMet 12z Euro from earlier today. 00z GEFS

The Canadian just never gets moisture north of 40, but south of 40 does well.

The Canadian is probably going to be a winter storm solution. It's slower than the ICON and way slower than the GFS here.

Unfortunately, it is. 850s are around 35 and the surface is 30/31 in the red areas.

GFS continues to live on cutter island. Holds much more back over the SW again, vs that wintery ICON run. We'll see if the Canadian joins it shortly.

Actually getting hail now.

Heck of a windy storm rolling through. Very heavy rain. The heavy rain overnight and today already had the creeks running extremely high.

Still snowing at the end of the run as noted at 180 above.

ICON. Potentially devastating with such a cold outbreak following the ice/snow.

Spire Model

Much much much weaker than the Euro version last night, which kept the precipitation shield light and small.

This may look like a version of the Euro from last night, but a little further East.