John1122

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 335 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Morgan County in east Tennessee... * Until 400 AM EST. * At 335 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 10 miles north of Fairfield Glade, or 16 miles northeast of Crossville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Wartburg around 355 AM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include High Point, Coalfield, Frozen Head State Park, Deerlodge, Petros and Sunbright. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3624 8489 3623 8457 3623 8455 3620 8447 3616 8444 3614 8445 3611 8442 3610 8438 3602 8438 3601 8440 3604 8478 3609 8480 3609 8483 3614 8487 3616 8491 3621 8491 TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 271DEG 42KT 3615 8488 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.25IN

Hopefully this missed Shocker.

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Overton County in Middle Tennessee... Northern Cumberland County in Middle Tennessee... East central Putnam County in Middle Tennessee... Southwestern Fentress County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 245 AM CST. * At 212 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Monterey, or 11 miles east of Cookeville, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Overton, northern Cumberland, east central Putnam and southwestern Fentress Counties, including the following locations... Clarkrange. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 296 and 308. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! &&

Friend of mine in that area just posted that the sirens were going off. Hope all our mid Valley folks are okay.

There's apparently an East Tennessee winter storm Facebook page that was hyping the GFS run as if it were legitimately a threat. The shame of it is it has thousands of followers.

That would make this winter almost dead on with 1993. It also featured a horrible December and January that finally got a little snowy the last 10 days of February then the March mega storm hit. My actual guess is that it's wildly wrong of course. But the GFS has done the best with temperatures for the past several weeks. I believe I saw that the GFS was only -2.7, the Euro was -4.8, the Euro Ens were -5.5ish, the GEFS was -6.8 and the GGEM was something like -11.

I'm already ready for summer and spring to be over. Tennessee isn't making the NCAAs and I'm already tired of humid, 88-95 degrees and rain. At least in fall when it's still 88-95 degrees its dry.

Another 4 inch week of rain would probably out us back into areal flooding. The ground is like a full sponge right now. I had a flat earlier and had the worst time changing it. Due to the nature of where I live there are sections of paved road and sections of gravel. My flat happened in gravel. It was like soup, my jack kept sinking into the ground. Soil is soaked at every level.

Had an 8 foot deep mega pothole/sinkhole open in an area roadway this week. There was a huge one in a backyard a couple weeks ago.

2012 ended up being the lowest summer ice extent on record due to a very unfavorable pattern that developed in spring and summer over the Arctic. 2012 at this time of year wasn't remotely the lowest ice extent on record. We are slightly ahead of 2012 right now and overall this winter has seen gains in Arctic ice that easily outpaced average. Currently sea is is ahead of 2019 on this date, well ahead of 2018 on this date, well ahead of 2017 on this date, well ahead of 2016 on this date, ahead of 2015 on this date, ahead of 2014 on this date, roughly tied with 2013 on this date, ahead of 2011 on this date, roughly tied with 2010, behind 2009 and 2008, ahead of 2007, ahead of 2006, ahead of 2005, behind 2004-2001. So in the last 20 years we are currently ahead on Arctic sea ice vs 14 of the 20 years. So the +AO has done pretty good work in the Arctic this year.

.91 in the bucket since around 3am this morning. MRX has most of the area in the 4-6 inch range by Thursday. Not sure that flash flooding will be an issue but a lot of slow rising water issues will happen at that point. I'm now at 8.17 inches of rain already for the month and had 7.35 last month. So already 8 inches or so above normal for 2020.

Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning.

WPC day 3 outlook.

Hwy 25w is closed here. 5.14 inches of rain from the event so far. Still raining.

It is absolutely dumping down in buckets out there now with fairly frequent thunder in the area.

Just heard thunder rumble. Snow countdown clock is on.

Extremely heavy rain currently falling. My power just came back on after going out around 4pm. Crossed the 3 inch mark as of 6:15.

Currently at 2.08 inches since Monday evening. Creeks are high and rising and it's pouring down now with a tongue of 3-4 more inches expected through tomorrow. All this coming off the rainiest year ever here, which followed the prior rainiest year ever with the GFS forecasting 12-16 inches of rain for the area over the next 2 weeks. I've had 162 inches of rain in the past 25 months. That's an average of 6.5 inches of rain per month for over 2 consecutive years. That came on the heels of one of the worst droughts we've seen here. The weather is nothing but extremes these days. Extreme warmth, extreme drought, extreme rains, and on the rare times it's managed to get wintry and cold, it was extreme those winters too.

From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold.

Current 90 day model bias. Hopefully these update in the page but maybe not. Won't bother with the Canadian, because they upgraded recently, but the old Canadian was in the 4-5+ degrees top cold at every period from 2-5 through 11-15. The most accurate 2-5 day temp forecast was NWS forecast offices, almost mirrored by GFS MOS. For longer range the Euro Op was best, but the GFS OP is surprisingly better than the Ensembles. The Canadian stunk at every level. Euro Ens GFSENS Euro Op GFS OP

That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night. There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison.

Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not. The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee.

I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee.

There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee.

2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high.