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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Left this morning to 35 degrees and frozen fog riming the mountains just above me, to 80 and humid in Florida. Crazy how fast it warmed driving down 75. Valdosta Ga was 57 on the car and Ocala, Fl was 77.
  2. John1122
    Congratulations to all seeing flakes. Giving a dusting to 1/2 inch for my area tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Temps were colder than expected this morning when I left for Florida. Heavy frozen fog was sticking to the mountains above 2400 feet or so. So it apparently was well below freezing there. Topped out at 37 back at my house. Quite a different picture in Florida. 80 and fairly humid where I'm at now just after midnight.
  3. John1122
    The Euro/GFS backed off quite a bit on the amounts of snow in the western areas, as did the NAM. The NAM has a massive ice storm now, and further east than before. These are the wobbles I was talking about, small ones have big consequences on the heavy snow axis.
  4. John1122
    Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
  5. John1122
    Many times it's where the maximum amount of moisture that can still fall as frozen will set up. Basically the colder the atmosphere the less moisture it holds. It seems to play out often when it's snowing south of here along the northern gulf states. You'll see an area around 20-40 miles north of the rain/snow line that gets hit harder than surrounding areas.
  6. John1122
    Right where the rain/snow line sets up will probably see the heaviest snow, tough to ever tell with these systems though, wobbles of 30 or 40 miles have major effects on the ground. I'd like my chances best in SW Kentucky or NW Tn still, not sure that the totals the models are throwing out will verify but I'd say they might in isolated areas. It's usually not a bad idea to shave off 40 percent of what they show.
  7. John1122
    The Euro was colder initially than prior runs, moderate ice storm across most of Kentucky, still moderate snow in West Tn with snow spreading statewide but in much lesser amounts as the system moves away. NAM is very icy too, just crushes North Carolina, parts of NW Tennessee and the Western 2/3rds of Kentucky.
  8. John1122
    I'll be in Florida by then, so flakes are almost a guarantee. The Euro is very bullish for West Tennessee, even down to Memphis. Nice SE shift for those guys.
  9. John1122
    Our western forum area folks are still in the game for winter weather later in the week, though sadly today/tonight didn't work out for them. I hope they can pull off a few inches from the late week system. The GEM and Euro are just about 50 miles outside of our forum area with decent accumulation. They should see flakes in the air if nothing else though. Possibly some icy mix in areas as well. There's also been a few hints at a clipper rolling through late next weekend but it might be a rainy clipper here with snow closer to the Ohio River. The 12z GEFS keeps lower heights over the SE with almost no AN temps in sight as we close out November. The 20 coldest Decembers since 1948 (time of record there) in Crossville had 16 N/BN Novembers and 4 AN Novembers. 8 of the 16 were 2+ degrees below normal for November and 8 were within .5 degrees or less of normal for November. So I looked around the region to see how November led into December during that timeframe. Basically we want near normal or below if we want winter to start in December. At TRI 12 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At TYS 14 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At BNA 14 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At CHA 12 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers At HSV 12 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At LOZ 13 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. In Memphis it changed up, 11 of the 20 coldest Decembers actually had AN Novembers there. So the weather we are seeing across the area, N/BN, is a better signal for a cold start to December across most of the valley vs an AN November where you hope for a flip to cold in December. As a note, it took 2 days for Tri to erase it's +3. It's now at +.2 for the month, or essentially normal. According to how the next week plays out, it will be tough for it to finish AN for the month if the next weeks forecast comes to pass but it could if the flip to warm is dramatic. The Canadian ESN are even colder than the GEFS and has the whole country in the freezer by the end of November. With all that said, I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro was right and both the GEFS were wrong.
  10. John1122
    The GEFS may be wrong, the GEM ens may as well, but this is the look the GEFS is throwing out for the next 16 days. That is getting us into the last 3-4 days of November. Tri may be the exception in the region because it's been way warmer compared to average than the balance of the valley. But if these actually come to pass, there just won't be any way for the majority of the region to finish above normal unless the last 3-4 days of Nov are 80/60 or something crazy. Especially considering places like Huntsville, Memphis and Crossville are in the -2 to -3 range for the month already. As for the GEPS, it's even colder than the GEFS over this period. Granted, both may be wrong and we won't verify nearly that cold.
  11. John1122
    Through yesterday I'm at -1.9 for the month to date. That will get significantly lower over the next 10 days by the way it looks now. It should make it pretty tough for November to finish anything but BN for the month. This doesn't by any means guarantee a great winter, but it certainly eases my mind compared to AN November winters. Around the region Tri is at +3 as it has been oddly warm there. Chattanooga is at -0.7, Knoxville is at +0.7, BNA +0.2 (both will fall into BN after today) London Ky is at -0.7, Jackson Ky is at -1.5, Memphis is at -3.0, Crossville is at -2.1, Clarksville is -0.8, Jackson TN is at -1.5, Huntsville, Al is at -1.1. So pretty much the entire valley area outside of far NE TN is or will be BN for the month after today. If the GEFS is to be believed we will average -8 to -12 valley wide over days 1-5, and -6 to -8 over days 6-10 and normal in the West to -1.5 in the East over days 11-15. The average temperate for the month of November at Tri is 46.6 - record for Nov is 38.8 1976 at Tys 49.7 - record is 42.7 1951 at Cha 51.2 - record is 42.7 1976 at CSV 46.6 - record is 39.3 1976 at BNA 49.5 - record is 40.9 1976 at CKV 48.8 - record is 41.8 2000 (no station in 1976) at MEM 52.2 record is 45.5 1976 at LOZ (Ldn, Ky) 46.5 record is 36.1 1976 at HSV 51.2 record is 42.8 1976 Looking at those and looking at the records, Memphis has a shot at setting a record cold November this year, already being at -3 for the month and looking to spend the next 10-12 days around -8 to -10 on average. No one else is going to approach 1976 most likely but there is a shot if the numbers verify for some places to approach top 5 coldest November temps which are 2-4 degrees warmer than record cold years. 7 of the 10 coldest Novembers on average across the region correspond to 7 of the 10 snowiest winters in the area. So lets hope this cold snap has the teeth it appears to have now and that we can fall into the snowy winter side of the cold November analog.
  12. John1122
    The Euro also has system #2 now, ice in the Carolinas right now, rain here.
  13. John1122
    The Canadian pops the 2nd wave and rides it up the coast, but it's too warm to snow. The 850 line is hanging out in Southern Canada so it's upper 30s and raining again. It enhances the back side of wave one more and drops 1-2 inches from 40 north from Crossville to Cocke Co and points north.
  14. John1122
    Euro is steadfast in saying very little to nothing for our forum area. GFS and GEM both came in with lessened amounts. I expect the NAM will follow suit soon enough. The perfect HP/LP set up from a few days ago has disappeared. The HP that was coming down into the midwest is no where to be found. That allows the storm to track further north and it's not there to deliver enough cold. If that indeed comes to pass, the Euro will take an early 1-0 lead on the GFS . Nice to have something to track this time of year, hopefully it's more a normal thing this year than the last two.
  15. John1122
    Late in it's run, but the NAM is onboard with the GFS in nailing the NW portion of the state. Dyersburg looks to be in a nice spot to get a few inches of snow if it verifies. Timing will be favorable as will 850s. Rates would help overcome ground temps. The rest of us get the absolute misery of both a missed opportunity and rain with temps in 35-40 range. Meanwhile, much like last year and the deep south snows, this one has the potential to put areas of Northern Texas and South/Central Arkansas 2-5 times over their normal yearly snowfall totals before November is over if the American models are to be believed. The Euro is much more conservative and blanks these areas.
  16. John1122
    Euro says the ground may get white in a few areas, far NW Tn being the most likely place it happens. That same area gets buried by the experimental GFS. Looks like classic cold chasing rain, models usually over do that significantly, so for most of us, hope to see some flakes. For our W/NW areas, hopefully you actually get smacked with a nice snowfall.
  17. John1122
    Looks like the GFS is slowly moving NW with it's track. As I mentioned yesterday or the day before, the Euro track seems more likely and the GFS is slowly heading that way.
  18. John1122
    While verbatim the outcome changed some on the 0z GFS vs the 12z today. The track/intensity/hp to the northwest stayed virtually the same on the GFS. Gonna be borderline for a decent miller A storm or just a perfect track wasted if the GFS comes to pass. If it were December the 15th we'd be rocking with that path statewide or close to it.
  19. John1122
    Quite a few winters you'll see much more than Knox, especially south or west Knox. A couple of years ago the lower elevations around LaFollette picked up 20-25 inches. I believe Knox had around 5-8 inches that year. Driving from Knox for years the snowlines were North of Halls, another often set up around the Clinch River bridge, another sets up around the Anderson/Campbell line. Once you get into Campbell elevation will play another big factor. You'll see snowcapped mountains fairly often. Especially Cross Mountain above Caryville.
  20. John1122
    The Euro has been as steady running the Apps as the GFS has been taking the low road. The Canadian seems to just bounce back and forth between the two. At 500mb they are both very similar with the big western ridge. The ridge in the Atlantic is a little more westwardly prominent on the Euro and that shifts the storm track 200 miles west/nw on there. That ends up making all the difference in the world here between snow and rain.
  21. John1122
    The 12z GFS is a Miller A dream track from the Plateau and West, if it were a month from now it'd be a state wide dream come true. That path from Lake City Florida to just ESE of Columbia, SC would bring home the bacon. There have been unusual snows well South of us in recent years, it'd be nice if we managed one at one at some point in our region. The Canadian went way south and looks to bullseye East Tennessee with it's latest run.
  22. John1122
    0z GFS holds serve with it's far south/off shore solution. More widespread cold and snow showers for most of the state on that run with the system further south/east. Elevated areas see a few inches along the Plateau and Mountains. A dusting over most of the state, through I'd suspect more of a deck and rooftop type event. Canadian moved closer to the Euro with an Apps runner. Still a decent ways to go but I wouldn't be surprised to see a cutter/Apps runner come to pass. Seems more likely than the GFS solution just based on climo this time of year and the general tendency of systems to be far more likely to cut west of the Apps vs east of them. Even with the Canadian solution most of the state would see backside snow showers, but that's often overdone on models and drying tends to happen much faster than modeled.
  23. John1122
    If we can pull this look off in winter I'll be pretty happy with it. I actually think it would probably be more snow than rain if it can come to pass next week.
  24. John1122
    The Canadian seems to be somewhere in the middle of the GFS and Euro. The Euro was even more of a Lakes event at 12 than at 0z. If nothing else the models are always consistently at odds with the exact evolution of events but seem to be better at sniffing out systems in the 7-10 day range than ever.
  25. John1122
    If I schedule a trip during a month it can snow, it immediately pops into the forecast around that time frame. Like with every other month, snow in November used to be much more common in the area. Last time I had more than 1 inch in November was 2008 on the 20-21st. 3.5 inches Nov 10th 1996 with some snow falling on the 8th and 9th too. Back in the 60s several Novembers had multiple multi-inch snow events.
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