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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Putting my chips on the Canadian since it's the only one working out for me. It and the RGEM did do well with the Christmas event when every other modeling suite was too far East for the longest time. Not gonna hold my breath on anything being worked out before 24-36 hours out.
  2. John1122
    Modeling has one common theme this year. Looks bad/warm long range. Slowly corrects towards something workable as we get closer in time. We've went from warm until the mid month period while we wait on the SSW to moving two possible snow events inside the D10 timeframe.
  3. John1122
    I'm still a fan of the EPS/Euro. There's some bone chilling cold on there around D10, -10 to -12 BN 850s. The EPS mean for the last 6 runs has increased the snow mean for the area. I'm a big fan of the blocking showing up vs the SE ridge patterns we've had. My normal is 41-21 over the January 15-31st period. The mean around freezing. So basically normal temps to even slightly AN can still produce snow here. The Euro also had a warm bias as a rule. So overall I'm still pretty excited vs the general hopelessness of the last 3 or 4 winters.
  4. John1122
    The Euro/EPS was basically even better than the 12z run today. Cold in place, a southern storm track. The GEFS looks way too warm for the 500mb pattern it's showing. The GOA low gets shunted west, a +PNA pops, the NAO is crazy negative. Should result in something good as it also falls in the most climatologically favorable time of the year for snow forum wide.
  5. John1122
    The GFS now has two potential snow events in the region between day 10 and day 15. One was a doozy. Classic Miller A trapped under a block. Long way to go but shows the potential of that blocking that's been showing up. And overall the GFS blocking is less impressive than the EPS for the same time frame.
  6. John1122
    Tennessee is really really good. I really hope we get a tournament this year. If this team doesn't make the final four I'll say we may never make it as a program.
  7. John1122
    Was just coming to post about the EPS that Carver's just posted about. We are going to have to ride out a rainy/mild period for the next 10 days or so, but good things should be coming for peak winter, Jan 15th - Feburary 20th or so for the non-elevated valley.
  8. John1122
    Sadly, not quite snow. Just unending rain.
  9. John1122
    One more day of snow on the ground in the books. The new years eve storm may get me to 100 inches on the year if it over performs.
  10. John1122
    Miller A's in January and February are by far our best way to get a big snow. Average low temps forum area wide in mid January are cold enough for snow. It mostly just has to not be well above average. The EPS above had 850s well below 32 with a storm signal in the gulf area and monster blocking over the top in the extended. If we also got the slight bump into +PNA territory it would be the rare winter triple play. Historically those periods are snowy and cold here.
  11. John1122
    The strat warming is actually underway now. Whether we benefit or not remains to be seen. By by and large we eventually see more snow than normal in the 60 days that follow.
  12. John1122
    The blocking by day 8-10 on the Euro is just crazy. The EPS just says "hey Miller A, meet this cold" in the 11-15 day range. Now we just need to reel it in and we should have business picking up.
  13. John1122
    Eric Webber says the strat split will likely couple with a west based -NAO and likely give us the best Atlantic based blocking since 2009-11 winters. He's pretty enthusiastic from Mid January on about it. Granted I think he's in Eastern NC and that may mean different weather for him vs us. But a powerful -NAO should help us all.
  14. John1122
    Always favor the Pacific. We had a +PNA heading into the Christmas eve event. It's looking to hang out around neutral to mildly positive the next two weeks. It's not easy to make things work here and especially any further west of me, with a PNA that isn't at least neutral or some big time EPO help.
  15. John1122
    I'd love to see West and Middle areas get a big winter storm this season. The ice they probably don't want. Some of the ice scenarios showing up rignt now would be crippling to the power grid.
  16. John1122
    Hi-res GFS crush job out West. Regular GFS is a severe ice storm too. Memphis just stays at 31 for a long time with freezing rain. The Canadian is a a little further West and just makes a glacier in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
  17. John1122
    Looking at that image, the biggest snow drought area is basically over the NAO region. I wonder if that's a result of a -NAO there after SSWs?
  18. John1122
    This is the composite 0-60 day snowfall from 1958-2014 after all SSW events, both splits and disruptions. The lightest blue is a 10 percent increase in average snowfall the darkest is up to a 50 percent increase. I had to drop and rotate to get a decent look at the United States. Our forum region does as well as any other area in North America after a SSW.
  19. John1122
    Looking at SSW events between 1958 and 2002, if the SSW happened in December/January in most cases the 60 day snowfall here was above average. If it happened in February or another month, snowfall was more often below average for the next 60 days.
  20. John1122
    After getting .20 to .60 or so of freezing rain West Tennessee, West KY and NE Arkansas gets this.
  21. John1122
    GFS shifted towards the Euro that run. Might have a thread called "AMZ's New Years Rockin Eve" or something like that if the west shifts can stop now.
  22. John1122
    Forecast was 38 today. Made it to 30.
  23. John1122
    Was at 12 by 9PM last night and thought I might make a run at 0. Only got down to 5 though.
  24. John1122
    The EURO shifted south with it's frozen shield at 12z and isn't bad for West Tennessee. I suspect it and the GFS will eventually meet. It seems like it's been folding towards the GFS this winter.
  25. John1122
    Canadian is a cutter, Euro/GFS are very close to the system we just had. Let's see if it sticks around. The system yesterday was constant for a week.
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