Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,749

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The GFS will probably shift back West some like the NAM did. Though it may wait until tomorrow.
  2. John1122
    Just look at the Christmas event. The GFS was just blowing things out. The Euro actually waffled to the GFS for a a run or two then came back. The Canadian family was rock steady. The GFS finally came back some inside 36 hours. The Euro came back faster but still not enough. The NAM was awful and missed badly to the East and the UKIE was too warm for the longest time.
  3. John1122
    Accuweather article out today just bullish as all get for the pattern all the way into February. They say the good stuff won't even get rolling until basically after January 15th. Pretty good news that we have two potential snow events to track before the heart of winter arrives and according to them, the best pattern due to the split vortex. They harp on cold building into the Northern Rockies that shunts further east and south behind storms until it's all the way down into Northern Florida.
  4. John1122
    The exact path of the ULL will have major consequences on who gets what here. The models will likely jump around quite a bit with it. Heck, the NAM/GFS do that with every system that involves snow here. Tomorrow or even early Thursday may begin to set in stone our final fate.
  5. John1122
    Euro currently folding towards the GFS. Something that happened at this range during the Christmas event before it came back towards the Canadian suite at 0z. No clue about whether that will happen here or not.
  6. John1122
    The UKIE, which didn't handle the Christmas event very well. It was warm for that event if I remember correctly.
  7. John1122
    It's way south right now. Much more suppressed than 12z. Still, much better suppressed at day 6-7 than close.
  8. John1122
    Smoking hot Euro on wave one. Works well further West than other models and buries the East.
  9. John1122
    Next panel the Knox area and most of East Tennessee gets smashed.
  10. John1122
    The Euro is just crushing the southern Plateau and maybe even Nooga. Someone is going to get plastered north of the ULL track.
  11. John1122
    The GFS was mostly meh, but we are in that timeframe with it where it's way far east or south with everything. I'd say about 24 hours from now it will possibly trend better for more of us. The Canadian was a lot better for virtually everyone vs 12z today.
  12. John1122
    18z Euro Control really slams the midstate area, and the mountains. 1-2 inches in other areas. 3-9 in the mid-state. 18z EPS mean is in the 2-3 inch range for the Plateau, higher far east mountains, .75-1.75 inches elsewhere basically. The 18z almost mirrored the Canadian with the ULL that run.
  13. John1122
    I'm more interested in seeing things get into RGEM range. It's not been a great year for American modeling but the Canadian suite has been decent.
  14. John1122
    We get a perfect track Gulf storm that drops .20 or less QPF over a 12 hour period. Also a good part of the area have favorable 850s, 540 thickness, plus it's overnight but it shows rain on the model output. Seems unlikely with that storm track and those upper levels. I figure there would be heavier precip, more top down cooling and a much better chance at snow. The GFS is by itself for now on those thermals.
  15. John1122
    Perfect track, light precip, much warmer than the Euro/Canadian. See the prior post about models struggling mightily to handle Gulf Low precip shields.
  16. John1122
    06z GFS looks like it's going to Miller A storm 2 like the Euro.
  17. John1122
    Euro looks like the GFS almost with the first storm. Perfect track but just doesn't really blossom precip other than a couple of random spots that get heavy snow, then it nails NC. The second system is a classic Miller A/Slider that also appears to have an underdone precip field. It's been discussed many times over the years how poorly models depict precip fields with Gulf lows.
  18. John1122
    Canadian feels the block and the second system is a deep south slider from Texas to South Carolina. Huge difference between it and the GFS.
  19. John1122
    GFS not so good, Canadian a good bit better with system one. GFS shifts 500 miles with system two and decides it's going to be a big cutter even with a massive amount of blocking over the top. AKA very unlikely outcome.
  20. John1122
    Some -12c to -14c BN anomalies at 850 showing up on the EPS. Those showing up in mid January would mean some extremely cold weather at the surface. Probably closing in on 0.
  21. John1122
    Barnes benched Fulkerson for the last 5 minutes of that crapshow. I think he was trying to prove a point. Pons was in foul trouble and Fulkerson didn't do anything to lead the team in his absence. I hope Springer is okay. Losing him hurt the team too.
  22. John1122
    The timeframe has a +PNA/-NAO/-AO at a level not seen in combination since the first half of February 2010. There were 3 snow events from Jan 29th to February 15th that year.
  23. John1122
    The EURO is solid even for unelevated areas Plateau east.
  24. John1122
    Putting my chips on the Canadian since it's the only one working out for me. It and the RGEM did do well with the Christmas event when every other modeling suite was too far East for the longest time. Not gonna hold my breath on anything being worked out before 24-36 hours out.
  25. John1122
    Modeling has one common theme this year. Looks bad/warm long range. Slowly corrects towards something workable as we get closer in time. We've went from warm until the mid month period while we wait on the SSW to moving two possible snow events inside the D10 timeframe.
×
×
  • Create New...