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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Slightly south and east vs yesterday. But I think it is just model bounce due to the nature of the system being much more unpredictable than a normal system.
  2. John1122
    Next 5 days on the gfsv16
  3. John1122
    GFSv16
  4. John1122
    The GFS is going to score an all time win or have a monster bust. It's going down with a snowless ship. Yet it's upgrade is all in on a monster storm. The Canadian is in the middle and consistent.
  5. John1122
    Tough call for MRX with narrow window between heavy snow or nothing. The graphic reflects it pretty well saying basically zero to several inches possible.
  6. John1122
    0z NAM is pretty similar to the 18z RGEM. At this point models are almost useless to watch run to run. Small track wobbles will happen each run and each time someone will get more or less vs the prior run. General confidence that it will snow is high at elevation, moderate in the eastern valley and low moderate in the mid valley towards Nashville. How much and exactly where will be purely nowcast.
  7. John1122
    JKL put out a SPS saying 1-2 inches in their Tennessee and Virginia border counties possible. If I can get 2 inches I'll be very happy. Hoping for more but skittish due to being in or near the non-Smokies bullseye so often. Heck, my area and Scott County are the only areas over an inch on the hi-res 18z GFS. Christmas worked, if this one does it will begin to restore faith in modeling.
  8. John1122
    RGEM 18z Just standard model waffling with this type of system run to run. A few miles track move had massive consequences on the outcome of the run.
  9. John1122
    I fully expect somewhere to get 4+ inches of snow without any kind of advisory or warning.
  10. John1122
    It's magic is tricking the board!
  11. John1122
    Most assuredly.
  12. John1122
    Middle and West Tennessee posters after the NAM.
  13. John1122
    Looks like we got NAM'd just a little bit.
  14. John1122
    It's normally 3:15-4:15ish.
  15. John1122
    This one will either end power for some or go down as a moderate to large bust. Maybe even both. That is the nature of ULL snows and their path will likely not be correctly modeled even going off short term now cast models like the HRRR and RAP for more than a few hours in advance. In this scenario bet on elevations but expect your bet to possibly bust wildly even in valley floors.
  16. John1122
    Euro was much more N/W than the GFS/Canadian for wave 2. 1-1.5 inches across West/Middle 2-3 Plateau, 1.1.5 Eastern valley. The Euro has a 3rd threat 2-3 days after wave 2.
  17. John1122
    Sharp cutoff in the Eastern Valley that run.
  18. John1122
    Euro is doing work on the Plateau and Eastern Rim back towards Nashville.
  19. John1122
    MRX put this out around 10pm.
  20. John1122
    Wave 2 is swimming on the Canadian and GFS. Spreading snow across West and Middle Tennessee at the end of it's run on the UKIE.
  21. John1122
    UKIE backed off a bit and is still extremely elevation dependent. But it is temp issues and not precip that is the problem on it.
  22. John1122
    It's possible but it shows it snowing here for 3 more hours after that.
  23. John1122
    Big run from the Canadian. I do wonder if it's seeing downsloping in NETN.
  24. John1122
    As expected, the GFS is still very Eastern edge on modeling. Could still be right but it's very much on a island right now.
  25. John1122
    My RGEM sounding best guess is freezing drizzle/rain though the model output shows about 2 inches of snow in the prior 3 hours. I assume it's the dry air above 700mb causing a lack of moisture in the dendritic growth area (-10c temps)
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