EasternLI

Looks that way. Yeah.

Since I last posted on the stratosphere. Cross guidance trends have been unfavorable for getting it done. There's still warming ahead, but it looks increasingly clear to me like it will fall short of what we would need. Here's the latest gefs trends illustrating this. So what could that most likely mean. There's still some warming modeled. Here's the cross section of the 00z gfs as a guide. Note the strong winds high up in the stratosphere. Associated with the stronger than normal SPV currently. With weakening winds arriving at the time of the warming. Notice how the warming weakens the winds higher up, but this is pushing down the stronger wind into the troposphere. But the warming isn't going to be enough to finish the job. So what are we left with. I'd say most likely that means no help from this. As it actually acts to strengthen the vortex in the troposphere instead (+AO) by pushing the stronger winds down from above. With the SPV regaining strength again following this as hinted on latest guidance. Could happen later I suppose, but I really rather not by then as the hour is getting extremely late. Hopefully this is at least a little helpful for those more curious about the nuance of it. Ideally, a stronger event would push the reversal of winds down through the atmosphere into the troposphere. Which is how the arctic blocking can emerge. That looks very unlikely today.

Brutal

$20 on the torch.

Filthadelphia? Not a fan. Let's go Giants!!

It's so weird though. And I've seen this happen on several runs now. With the strat warming, I'm seeing troposphere alterations like simultaneously. That's abnormal isn't it?

We 2001-2002.... All of the cold has been firmly planted on the other side of the planet for the most part. Our winters have never been good here when this happens. It gets warmer here now than it used to though because the world is getting warmer. This is just reality. I feel like we need the ssw to come through, with it's associated effects, if we are to crawl out of the basement at this point. That's about all I see that could offer a large scale shake up which we need. With that being said, even if we get one, it still may not matter because there's no guarantee how it might play out. But if we don't, I think we stay locked in the basement and siberia stays locked in the freezer.

Another stratosphere post since the target timeframe is approaching 10 days now. Dr Butler tweeted yesterday she referenced the nasa GEOS model. Without a doubt, this is who to pay attention to for this. So here's the GEOS model from overnight at day 10. Fairly robust run. Be interesting to see what trends or doesn't with this over the next several days. Gefs was a little more enthusiastic about it overnight also. Just starting to come into view on the euro as well. So we observe.

It's a giant ridge in the arctic stratosphere, following a ssw. Sell for the time being.

Pretty big update upcoming this year on those. Where they will now run separately from the 00z eps. Instead of as an extension, like now. Double the members. Plus run it every day. I'll be interested to see how these do following that. My biggest issue with them has always been because they just extrapolate the 00z eps. That's not going to be the case anymore after this. These sound like very promising changes to me. Looking forward to this. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/173/earth-system-science/next-extended-range-configuration-ifs-cycle-48r1

Just for entertainment value. As bad as those weeklies look, 100% of the members do get at least some snow into NYC at one point or another.

Just taking a peek up into the stratosphere guidance this morning. Just because some may be interested to see some of the real data. Let's check the status. It's already disturbed somewhat from the earlier shots of warming. Here's initial conditions on the euro. There's another good shot scheduled up in 6 days. Here's the euro again. Euro is slightly stronger than the GFS with this. Another one setting up to follow that one up. Here's the euro again, Gfs has the same general idea as does gefs and eps. Here's the 06z gefs, which has 39% of the members achieve a technical ssw. That number fluctuates greatly from run to run, but that's the highest I've seen it so far. So figured I'd mention it. May all be meaningless in the end, of course. We all realize this. Seems interesting enough to keep an eye on it to me though. Something is happening there, may as well watch it.

I actually thought the eps did a better job squashing the se ridge last night. With a bit less of a western trough late. Regardless, I'm just not thinking very much about beyond day 7 currently with strat activity ramping up in this period. Yesterdays 12z eps Last night's 00z

This really is a pretty reasonable match everywhere with everything on 18z GEFS. We're pulling for the Greenland ridge here. To work with whatever happens with the strat. So get out the lucky rabbit foot, four leaf clover, lucky underwear, plus whatever else you might have.

This is what I've been trying to communicate about that situation. That is what made it interesting for me. Just having the possibility of something like that. Requires pulling a rabbit out of a hat though lol.

Just hope it doesn't end up like this instead lol

I'm still working on it

Listen to Dr. Butler when she posts about anything ssw related. Ignore most others. She quite literally wrote the book on them. It's a possibility, just as it has been, and continues to be. Nothing more. A legitimate threat if she's even mentioning anything about it. It's also something that requires monitoring over many days worth of trends. Operational models are also worth noting due to more vertical layers then the ensembles from my understanding.

I'm fully willing to sacrifice the remainder of winter so the giants can grab a win in Philly on Saturday

Just nice to watch the transformation of the Pacific on the euro. Which the day 9 thing could be related to, or perhaps a part of in some way. May that continue in the days ahead for once.

Gfs has been spitting out some record strat warming recently. Here's the 06z. Need to see if this continues until the euro op can start picking it up too. It's within the target timeframe. In addition, the westerly QBO ones are the least predictable on modeling. Gotta keep an eye on things between now and Feb on models.

This final point of his in that thread is the one condition that I'm most interested in monitoring moving forward. In that if you can set up the Blocking at the same time of a legitimate ssw, that changes the equation of when you can possibly see effects to something much sooner instead. I've mentioned this before either last month or back in November as a potential point of interest this season. I'm still curious to see if we can achieve that. It's not likely by any means currently, but it's very much possible with this state of affairs ahead. So I'm interested to see how this goes and if we can pull that off concurrently.