dan11295

Is recon going to get there before landfall?

Only storm of similar intensity to directly hit Dominica was Hurricane David in 1979 which was 145 mph. As mentioned above where they built offers some general protection and Maria has a small core, regardless, this is going to be only of the worst direct strikes on the island. About the only good thing is a lot of disaster recovery assets are already in the area due to Irma.

125 mph makes sense. Pressures don't yet support a Cat 4, even if it is in a relatively high pressure environment.

Pressure down of 957 w/18 kt wind. Recon had 122 kt at surface. Looks like southern half of Dominica is going to have a rough night.

If Jose meanders around as a ET cyclone, wouldn't that still give a path for Maria to go OTS? the Also the 12z looks better for PR and St. Croix. putting them potentially on the weaker side of Maria.

People have to remember ice sheet melting is a long term feedback. Happens on the time scale of centuries not decades. Simply exceeding the Eeemian baseline isn't going to suddenly melt all the the ice in Greenland. Takes heat energy (and time) to convert the ice back into a liquid state. That being said, on our current CO2 emissions path sea levels will rise toward (and potentially beyond) Eemian levels over the next few hundred years. Key point of uncertainty is when chokepoints in places such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) give way resulting in an acceleration of SLR. The WAIS, not Greenland holds the key here as the volume of water stored is much larger and the factors influencing the SLR contribution are different. Appears we could start to see this acceleration as soon in the latter half of this century but this is still an area of research up for significant debate and even such an acceleration on this time scale is very unlikely to result in an additional 8 ft over 80-90 years.

No question the long duration aspect of this storm is now somewhat in doubt. I honestly do not think anyone outside of SE MA or where the fronto band stalls out is going to get >24". It is obvious at this point where things are trending.

18z NAM had >0.25" liquid over all of metro NYC between 0z-3z. I can't see that happening with the current radar presentation.

Will have to see of any other models also close it of farther SW, which would cut QPF a bit in SNE.

Whats's the deal with the 4 km NAM shafting the Berks? wouldn't it take a shift east for that to happen? Also, not really buying any models that shaft SE burbs of Boston. That is historically a sweet spot plus we are already seeing OES echos into that area (even if they are not yet reaching the ground).

I know they are moving it to another location, mainly because they realised that if the tornado was further south, If could have possibly hit both St. John's and Freeman (the other regional hospital in the area) at the same time.

No offense but I do not think Springfield tornado should compared to those other two events. It was a major event for this area but there is no comparision to the loss of life and degree of destructive that occurred.

Read this morning that another person has died due to injuries. Sad testament to the violent nature of this event. Have not read any estimates as to how many are still hospitalized though.

Unfortunately the death toll in Joplin may rise more due to those who are critically injured. We had two additional fatalites from the 4/27 storm in Tuscaloosa within the past week. One was a woman whose child died in the storm. She was admitted to the ICU and never recovered. The other was an elderly man who contracted pneumonia after getting wet in the storm.

As I listen to more and more interviews with regards to how people fared in commercial structures, if is more and more clear that buildings with freezers/coolers or similar structures within the building provided a generally effective means of shelter. CNN had an interviews with people in the Dillon's who it appears all survived by getting the the cooler. Similar story in the Pizza Hut, except for an employee who perished trying to keep the door closed from the outside. As we know sadly those in the "big box" stores did not far so well. Lack of addtiional enclosure combined with the larger concentration of people were likely both contributing factors.

Updated page from Springfield, MO NWS office on the tornado identifes 4 different location along the track where EF-5 damage was determined to have occurred. Appears EF-5 damage began near the hospital and continued until the eastern end of the Commercial/Industrial area on E 20th St. We should get a more detailed report in the coming days I imagine. I am sure they are being more thorough with this report than for most other events given the severity.

That would explain why the death toll jumped by 6 today. We can note that none of them were found in buildings. Makes me still hope that very few are still to be found. As far as the morgue, I imagine there reasoning is many of the bodies are probably in very bad shape, not readily identifiable. I understand the families want closure but if the winds are as strong as suggested above you can imagine what that could have done, without getting too gruesome on here. So they are getting them identified via other means then cleaning them first then releasing them at that point.

I am guessing one reason there was little ground scouring was that the winds, although strong at the ground surface were not able to travel unimpeded over soil for enough distance. i.e. Almost all areas where strongest winds occurred were developed. Also I don't think all EF-5's produce scouring. Ability to scour also depends on soil type and shape of the landscape I imagine. It is much easier to scour a plowed field then lawn. an 4/9/11 EF-1 in Souix Falls was able to scour a plowed field

I was looking for what the Max. estimates speeds were in the other EF-5's? I know from last month: Hackleburg, AL: 210 Philadelphia, MS: 205 Smithville, MS 205 Not sure about Parkersburg or Greensburg

Glad to hear you are O.K. Really telling to know even though you were following the situation very closely and saw the couplet on radar before you took shelter, because the storm intensified so rapidly you did not realize the severity of the storm until afterwords. From that and other accounts many people did not know a tornado was upon them until the began to see debris. Yes they heard the sirens but they may not have thought too much of them. On a sad note they are still finding more victims. Toll has risen to 132.

They are having structural engineers look at the building. My guess is it will need a lot of work but they wont have to demolish the entire structure.

It is very clear this is a matter of very bad luck. Tornado developed quickly, becoming large violent and rain wrapped just it is is moving into a densely populated area where the surrounding area is mostly farmland.

They have searched the debris area 4 times now and have not turned up anyone living or deceased since Tuesday. Not to say additional people may not be buried, But I suspect that the number would be very small (single digits). Undoubtedly some of those missing are at the morgue but currently unidentified. That should account for 30 of the mssing.

Some amazing and sobering aerial images of Joplin from the Daily Mail Give a good idea of the scope of the destruction and the path of the storm. The pictures of the Home Depot are rather sobering. That building took the full force of the tornado. People who tried to take shelter next to a wall would have been crushed most likely.

That happened in Tuscaloosa as well with 400+ initially reported missing, and I believed they accounted for everyone without finding additional loss of life So I am confident almost all of those simply have communication issues. Also, we were talking about the Big Box stores yesterday. The Joplin Globe has a story which has a statement from Wal-Mart indicating lives were lost in that building. Read elsewhere lives were also lost at the Home Depot (numbers unknown at this time).